🗳️ Election Intelligence
Polls. Money. Markets.
Cross-referencing prediction market pricing, polling averages, and FEC campaign finance data for the 2026 midterms. The polls say one thing. The money says another. Here's where they diverge.
Last updated: Apr 25, 2026 04:48 AM
Presidential Approval
-17.2
40.5% approve · 57.7% disapprove
Generic Ballot
D+5.7
D 48.3% · R 42.6%
House Seat Model
D Majority
D+20 seats → 235D / 200R
Polymarket: D 86% / R 14%
Senate Control
No ratings
Cook / Sabato / Split Ticket
Polymarket: D 52% / R 48%
House Control Forecast
C: Lean D S: Lean D S: Likely D
Cook / Sabato / Split Ticket
C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Moore (R)
—
$2.2M
$845K
12%
$25.0M
—
Walker (R)
—
$2.0M
$1.2M
0%
—
—
Hudson (R)
—
$1.4M
$620K
14%
$623K
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Cotton (R)
—
$5.4M
$9.8M
17%
$1.2M
—
Shoffner (D)
—
$1.6M
$579K
42%
—
$1.4M
Little (R)
—
$93K
$127
15%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Risch (U)
—
$2.7M
$3.8M
7%
—
—
Achilles (I)
—
$413K
$141K
16%
—
—
Lave (R)
—
$161K
$159K
3%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Marshall (R)
—
$3.3M
$4.8M
8%
—
—
Spidel Neumann (D)
—
$187K
$38K
42%
—
—
Murray (D)
—
$180K
$46K
6%
—
—
C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Barr (R)
—
$8.0M
$4.2M
14%
$4.1M
$10.3M
Morris (R)
—
$7.0M
$581K
33%
$27.8M
$6.0M
Cameron (R)
—
$2.1M
$765K
25%
$350K
$996K
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Fleming (R)
—
$11.2M
$2.2M
6%
—
—
Cassidy (R)
—
$6.5M
$7.1M
2%
$515K
$204K
Letlow (R)
—
$3.9M
$2.3M
10%
$3.5M
$9.4M
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hyde-Smith (R)
—
$3.4M
$2.5M
5%
$233K
$127K
Colom (D)
—
$1.6M
$560K
17%
$432K
—
Adlakha (R)
—
$566K
$10K
6%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Lujan (D)
—
$4.7M
$4.2M
45%
$311
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hern (R)
—
$8.3M
$8.2M
4%
$12K
—
Inhofe (R)
—
$6.5M
$432K
20%
—
—
Mullin (R)
—
$3.2M
$2.4M
5%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Andrews (D)
—
$6.5M
$2.6M
62%
—
$121K
Graham (R)
—
$5.9M
$11.6M
5%
$358K
—
Lynch (R)
—
$5.7M
$3.3M
53%
—
$817K
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Rounds (R)
—
$2.4M
$2.9M
3%
$134K
—
Bengs (I)
—
$565K
$54K
67%
—
—
Beaudion (D)
—
$192K
$6K
28%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hagerty (R)
—
$5.9M
$5.7M
25%
$3.0M
—
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Talarico (D)
—
$20.7M
$4.8M
59%
$5.1M
$500K
Crockett (D)
—
$8.6M
$3.5M
76%
$775K
$7.1M
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Paxton (R)
—
$5.9M
$3.9M
13%
$1K
$24.9M
Cornyn (R)
—
$5.5M
$5.0M
5%
$10.7M
$1.4M
Ken Paxton 56¢
John Cornyn 42¢
Dawn Buckingham <1¢
Wesley Hunt <1¢
C: Safe R S: Safe R I: Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Capito (R)
—
$3.6M
$5.0M
2%
$461K
—
Evans (R)
—
$1.1M
$61K
72%
—
—
Shrewsbury (D)
—
$461K
$8K
81%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hageman (R)
—
$1.6M
$1.2M
55%
$59K
—
Lummis (R)
—
$1.5M
$1.6M
20%
$476K
—
C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
C: Toss-Up S: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
C: Safe D S: Safe D S: Safe D I: Safe D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Duckworth (D)
—
—
—
—
—
—
C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Husted (R)
48.3%
—
—
—
—
—
Brown (D)
45.7%
—
—
—
—
—
C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Cooper (D)
49.0%
—
—
—
—
—
Whatley (R)
42.2%
—
—
—
—
—
C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Morrow (D)
23.0%
—
—
—
—
—
Sayed (D)
23.0%
—
—
—
—
—
Stevens (D)
18.0%
—
—
—
—
—
C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Marshall (R)
23.5%
—
—
—
—
—
Moore (R)
18.0%
—
—
—
—
—
Hudson (R)
14.5%
—
—
—
—
—
C: Toss-Up S: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Collins (R)
30.8%
—
—
—
—
—
Carter (R)
17.8%
—
—
—
—
—
Dooley (R)
11.8%
—
—
—
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Crane (R)
—
$7.4M
$2.3M
40%
$51K
—
Treble (D)
—
$2.5M
$1.7M
8%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Ciscomani (R)
—
$5.1M
$3.8M
22%
—
$20K
Nez (D)
—
$2.3M
$1.4M
49%
$4K
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Mendoza (D)
—
$5.3M
$3.5M
50%
$91
—
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Tran (D)
—
$3.9M
$2.6M
25%
$6K
$5K
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hurd (R)
—
$3.0M
$1.9M
4%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hayes (D)
—
$1.1M
$990K
26%
$130
—
Shea (R)
—
$163K
$139K
19%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Wettach (D)
—
$698K
—
10%
—
—
C: Toss-Up S: Lean R I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Nunn (R)
—
$3.9M
$3.0M
16%
—
$2K
Trone Garriott (D)
—
$3.1M
$2.2M
19%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Wood (D)
—
$5.1M
$696K
71%
—
—
Lepage (R)
—
$1.9M
$1.3M
11%
—
—
Dunlap (D)
—
$628K
$244K
59%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Scholten (D)
—
$1.9M
$1.2M
11%
$133
—
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Barrett (R)
—
$5.0M
$2.8M
51%
$102K
$11K
Brink (D)
—
$2.3M
$1.3M
27%
—
—
Maasdam (D)
—
$1.7M
$937K
28%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Mcdonald Rivet (D)
—
$4.4M
$3.4M
12%
$180
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Mcclain (R)
—
$4.3M
$1.3M
37%
$4K
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Buckhout (R)
—
$2.7M
$1.5M
13%
—
—
C: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Powell (D)
—
$1.5M
$458K
19%
$1.5M
—
Harding (R)
—
$1.2M
$737K
2%
—
$448
Cavanaugh (D)
—
$1.0M
$345K
15%
—
$467K
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Sullivan (D)
—
$2.6M
$1.5M
16%
$382
—
Shaheen (D)
—
$1.8M
$1.1M
18%
—
—
Dilorenzo (R)
—
$1.3M
$827K
5%
—
—
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Kean (R)
—
$4.4M
$3.4M
11%
—
$2K
Bennett (D)
—
$2.7M
$1.4M
15%
—
—
Shah (D)
—
$2.0M
$1.4M
16%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Vasquez (D)
—
$2.9M
$1.9M
17%
—
—
Cunningham (R)
—
$397K
$204K
15%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Buck (R)
—
$934K
$369K
41%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
O'Donnell (R)
—
$3.2M
$2.7M
51%
—
—
Titus (D)
—
$1.2M
$1.1M
8%
$5K
—
Nagy (R)
—
$1.1M
$746K
2%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Lee (D)
—
$3.5M
$3.1M
9%
—
—
Horsford (D)
—
$2.6M
$1.1M
18%
$6K
—
Flippo (R)
—
$1.7M
$644K
1%
$116K
—
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Chatzky (D)
—
$11.6M
$5.6M
12%
—
—
Lawler (R)
—
$6.7M
$4.2M
14%
—
$1K
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Landsman (D)
—
$3.5M
$2.9M
9%
$90
—
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Kaptur (D)
—
$3.3M
$3.1M
21%
$586
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Sykes (D)
—
$2.5M
$1.6M
21%
$262
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Bynum (D)
—
$3.0M
$2.3M
23%
$125
—
Adair (R)
—
$277K
$189K
22%
—
—
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Fitzpatrick (R)
—
$5.5M
$7.7M
7%
—
—
Bresnahan (R)
—
$4.2M
$2.2M
30%
—
$2K
Cognetti (D)
—
$2.6M
$1.9M
15%
$91K
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Stelson (D)
—
$4.4M
$3.2M
22%
$39K
$28K
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Deluzio (D)
—
$2.2M
$996K
36%
$14K
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
De La Cruz (R)
—
$4.2M
$2.3M
39%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Kiggans (R)
—
$4.7M
$3.0M
27%
—
$2K
Luria (D)
—
$2.9M
$2.3M
16%
$382
—
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Vindman (D)
—
$9.7M
$5.3M
59%
$181K
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
—
$4.5M
$3.5M
12%
$55K
—
Braun (R)
—
$1.2M
$918K
9%
—
$55K
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Steil (R)
—
$4.4M
$5.6M
14%
—
—
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Cooke (D)
—
$6.5M
$4.4M
39%
$104
—
Van Orden (R)
—
$5.7M
$3.8M
36%
$258K
$31K
Methodology & Sources
Polling data from RealClearPolling averages. Scraped daily at 4:35 AM EST.
Campaign finance from the FEC API. Includes candidate committee financials, independent expenditures, and itemized contributions. Updated daily at 4:30 AM EST. FEC data typically lags 24-48 hours.
Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Split Ticket. Updated manually when rating changes occur.
Small-dollar % = unitemized individual contributions (<$200) as a share of total individual contributions. A proxy for grassroots energy.
IE (Independent Expenditures) = Super PAC and outside group spending for or against a candidate. "IE For" supports the candidate; "IE Agst" opposes them. Sourced from FEC Schedule E filings.
House Seat Model uses a simple heuristic: each point of generic ballot margin (adjusted for R+2 structural advantage) translates to approximately 5.5 House seats. This is a rough midterm heuristic, not a forecast. Confidence interval: ±15 seats.