⏱ Election Day Countdown

🗳️ Election Intelligence

Polls. Money. Markets.

Cross-referencing prediction market pricing, polling averages, and FEC campaign finance data for the 2026 midterms. The polls say one thing. The money says another. Here's where they diverge.

Last updated: Sep 03, 2026 09:35 PM

National Indicators

RCP averages

Presidential Approval

-16.7

39.8% approve · 56.5% disapprove

Generic Ballot

—

D —% · R —%

House Seat Model

R Holds

D— seats → —D / —R

Polymarket: D 90% / R 12%

Senate Control

No ratings

Cook / Sabato / Split Ticket

Polymarket: D 52% / R 50%

House Control Forecast

C: Lean D S: Lean D S: Likely D

Cook / Sabato / Split Ticket

💰 Follow the Money

Full dashboard →

Total Raised (Tracked Races)

$2540.6M

535 candidates across 83 races

Outside Spending (IE)

$1210.6M

$710.7M support · $499.9M oppose

IE Direction

$710.7M

$499.9M

■ Support ■ Oppose

Top Super PACs

#1 AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC $145.9M 12 races

#2 DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS $116.5M 11 races

#3 PROTECT PROGRESS $73.0M 11 races

#4 FIGHT FOR KENTUCKY $53.7M 1 race

#5 CALIFORNIA CONSERVATIVES PAC $52.0M 10 races

Hottest Races (by $)

#1 Alabama Senate $163.2M

#2 Kentucky Senate $159.7M

#3 Louisiana Senate $118.3M

#4 New York 19th $107.5M

#5 California 13th $92.8M

Race Navigator

Click any race to view details

GA-SEN-R-PRIMARY

MI-SEN-D-PRIMARY

FL-GOV-R-PRIMARY

TX-SEN-D-PRIMARY

TX-SEN-R-PRIMARY

AL-SEN-R-PRIMARY

OH-GOV-R-PRIMARY

TX-SEN-R-RUNOFF

Tracked Races

● polls ● FEC ● market

Senate Races (41)

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Moore (R)

—

$3.8M

$628K

13%

$131.9M

—

Walker (R)

—

$2.0M

—

0%

—

—

Hudson (R)

—

$1.9M

$114K

16%

$7.7M

$12.0M

Arkansas Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Cotton (R)

—

$6.2M

$9.9M

17%

$1.3M

—

Shoffner (D)

—

$2.3M

$864K

36%

—

$4.5M

Little (R)

—

$93K

$127

15%

—

—

Delaware Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Coons (D)

—

$3.9M

$4.7M

3%

$12K

—

Shulli (R)

—

$105K

$46K

24%

—

—

Katz (R)

—

$70K

$38K

20%

—

—

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Risch (U)

—

$3.4M

$3.5M

7%

—

—

Achilles (I)

—

$692K

$194K

20%

—

—

Lave (R)

—

$171K

—

7%

—

—

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hamilton (D)

—

$4.2M

$1.7M

19%

—

$1.9M

Marshall (R)

—

$4.0M

$5.4M

9%

$1.3M

—

Spidel Neumann (D)

—

$411K

$161K

42%

—

—

Kentucky Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Barr (R)

—

$10.0M

$2.3M

13%

$27.6M

$33.0M

Morris (R)

—

$8.6M

$383K

34%

$49.6M

$14.7M

Mcgrath (D)

—

$2.4M

$3K

53%

$159K

—

Louisiana Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Fleming (R)

—

$12.3M

$40K

8%

$33K

$1.4M

Cassidy (R)

—

$7.0M

$4.8M

2%

$1.1M

$861K

Letlow (R)

—

$6.2M

$1.4M

9%

$42.6M

$42.5M

Massachusetts Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

C: Safe D S: Safe D S: Safe D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Moulton (D)

—

$6.2M

$1.8M

10%

$2.3M

$2.9M

Markey (D)

—

$5.4M

$1.3M

34%

$43K

$4.8M

Deaton (R)

—

$1.6M

$712K

15%

—

—

Mississippi Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hyde-Smith (R)

—

$3.8M

$2.5M

5%

$233K

$1.4M

Colom (D)

—

$2.4M

$847K

18%

$1.2M

—

Adlakha (R)

—

$566K

$10K

6%

—

—

New Mexico Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Lujan (D)

—

$5.6M

$4.4M

40%

$321

—

Oklahoma Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hern (R)

—

$10.0M

$2.5M

12%

$4.5M

—

Inhofe (R)

—

$6.5M

$432K

20%

—

—

Mullin (R)

—

$3.2M

$1.4M

5%

—

—

Toss-Up D 98% / R 2% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Merkley (D)

—

$4.5M

$6.8M

30%

$120

—

Smith (R)

—

$121K

$29K

32%

$25K

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ 0.0% Vol: $7K

DEM 98¢

GOP 2¢

Rhode Island Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Reed (D)

—

$3.4M

$3.1M

1%

$10

—

Mckay (R)

—

$180K

$8K

39%

—

—

South Carolina Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Andrews (D)

—

$10.8M

$4.1M

61%

—

$276K

Graham (R)

—

$347K

$251K

17%

$5.0M

$392K

Lynch (R)

—

$5.9M

$547K

51%

$36K

$11.4M

South Dakota Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Rounds (R)

—

$3.2M

$2.7M

3%

$1.2M

—

Bengs (I)

—

$782K

$51K

61%

—

—

Beaudion (D)

—

$228K

$3K

30%

—

—

Tennessee Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hagerty (R)

—

$7.2M

$5.2M

25%

$5.9M

—

Texas Senate Dem Primary

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Talarico (D)

—

$20.7M

$4.8M

59%

$5.1M

$500K

Crockett (D)

—

$8.6M

$3.5M

76%

$775K

$7.1M

Texas Senate GOP Primary

Safe R Paxton 100% / Cornyn 0% ○ ● ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Paxton (R)

—

$5.9M

$3.9M

13%

$1K

$24.9M

Cornyn (R)

—

$5.5M

$5.0M

5%

$10.7M

$1.4M

📊 Primary Market Vol: $18.0M

Paxton 100¢

Ken Paxton 100¢

West Virginia Senate

Safe R D 4% / R 96% ○ ● ●

C: Safe R S: Safe R I: Safe R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Capito (R)

—

$4.6M

$4.4M

3%

$675K

—

Evans (R)

—

$1.1M

$61K

72%

—

—

Willis (R)

—

$642K

—

2%

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ -2.7% Vol: $16K

DEM 4¢

GOP 96¢

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hageman (R)

—

$2.4M

$915K

47%

$2.3M

—

Lummis (R)

—

$1.5M

$835K

20%

$476K

—

Mead (R)

—

$289K

$111K

8%

—

$26K

Safe R D 64% / R 36% ○ ○ ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Sullivan (R)

—

—

—

—

—

—

Peltola (D)

—

—

—

—

—

—

📊 Prediction Market Vol: $466K

DEM 64¢

GOP 36¢

Safe D D 94% / R 6% ○ ○ ●

C: Toss-Up S: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Ossoff (D)

—

—

—

—

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ -0.3% Vol: $124K

DEM 94¢

GOP 6¢

Illinois Senate

Safe D D 96% / R 4% ○ ○ ●

C: Safe D S: Safe D S: Safe D I: Safe D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Duckworth (D)

—

—

—

—

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +0.2% Vol: $32K

DEM 96¢

GOP 4¢

Safe R D 70% / R 30% ○ ○ ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Collins (R)

—

—

—

—

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ 0.0% Vol: $1.2M

DEM 70¢

GOP 30¢

North Carolina Senate

Safe D D 92% / R 8% ○ ○ ●

C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Cooper (D)

—

—

—

—

—

—

Whatley (R)

—

—

—

—

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ 0.0% Vol: $103K

DEM 92¢

GOP 8¢

Safe R D 56% / R 44% ○ ○ ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Brown (D)

—

—

—

—

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ 0.0% Vol: $207K

DEM 56¢

GOP 44¢

Texas Senate General

Safe R D 50% / R 50% ○ ○ ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Cornyn (R)

—

—

—

—

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +2.0% Vol: $988K

DEM 50¢

GOP 50¢

House Races (56)

Safe R ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Crane (R)

—

$9.5M

$2.8M

40%

$331K

$2.7M

Treble (D)

—

$4.0M

$659K

8%

$564K

—

Galan-Woods (D)

—

$2.2M

$539K

17%

$14K

$42K

Safe R ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Ciscomani (R)

—

$6.2M

$4.1M

22%

$20K

$24K

Nez (D)

—

$3.5M

$1.9M

46%

$4K

—

Safe R ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Mendoza (D)

—

$7.4M

$3.3M

47%

$56K

—

California 45th

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Tran (D)

—

$5.0M

$3.3M

22%

$107K

$5K

Safe D ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hurd (R)

—

$3.6M

$1.8M

4%

$232K

—

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Evans (R)

—

$5.4M

$3.9M

37%

$3.8M

$798K

Rutinel (D)

—

$4.3M

$601K

49%

$16.4M

$3.7M

Bird (D)

—

$2.3M

$230K

9%

$1.9M

$3.9M

Connecticut 5th

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hayes (D)

—

$1.3M

$1.1M

25%

$140

—

Shea (R)

—

$312K

$146K

23%

—

—

Safe R ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Wettach (D)

—

$698K

—

10%

—

—

Safe R ○ ● ○

C: Toss-Up S: Lean R I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Trone Garriott (D)

—

$5.3M

$3.9M

19%

$28K

$29K

Nunn (R)

—

$4.9M

$3.6M

14%

$23K

$2K

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Lepage (R)

—

$2.6M

$1.7M

12%

$23K

—

Dunlap (D)

—

$1.2M

$229K

55%

$480K

—

Baldacci (D)

—

$664K

$20K

12%

$2.3M

$1.1M

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Scholten (D)

—

$2.3M

$1.4M

11%

$143

$156K

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Mccann (D)

—

$2.6M

$1.7M

20%

$63K

—

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Barrett (R)

—

$6.3M

$2.9M

49%

$272K

$37K

Brink (D)

—

$3.0M

$841K

24%

$308K

$2.5M

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Mcdonald Rivet (D)

—

$5.6M

$4.3M

11%

$28K

—

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Mcclain (R)

—

$5.2M

$1.5M

36%

$282

—

North Carolina 1st

Safe D ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Buckhout (R)

—

$3.8M

$1.8M

15%

$1.7M

$90K

Safe R ○ ● ○

C: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Powell (D)

—

$2.7M

$997K

22%

$12.2M

$200K

Harding (R)

—

$2.0M

$1.1M

4%

—

$17K

Cavanaugh (D)

—

$1.4M

$82K

15%

$601K

$4.5M

New Hampshire 1st

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Sullivan (D)

—

$3.6M

$790K

18%

$3.9M

$1.1M

Dilorenzo (R)

—

$2.5M

$189K

11%

—

—

Shaheen (D)

—

$2.4M

$604K

18%

$2.6M

—

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Kean (R)

—

$4.9M

$3.6M

11%

—

$292K

Bennett (D)

—

$4.3M

$1.4M

16%

$2.8M

$1.4M

Shah (D)

—

$2.3M

$164K

17%

$450K

—

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Vasquez (D)

—

$3.8M

$2.4M

16%

$310

—

Cunningham (R)

—

$1.5M

$794K

17%

—

—

Orozco (R)

—

$219K

$3K

0%

—

—

Safe D ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Buck (R)

—

$1.9M

$654K

40%

—

—

Safe D ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

O'Donnell (R)

—

$4.1M

$2.4M

52%

—

—

Titus (D)

—

$1.5M

$1.3M

8%

$5K

—

Safe D ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Lee (D)

—

$4.4M

$3.7M

9%

$16

—

Horsford (D)

—

$3.4M

$1.5M

16%

$6K

—

Flippo (R)

—

$2.3M

$118K

3%

$1.3M

$619K

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Chatzky (D)

—

$11.7M

$789

12%

—

—

Lawler (R)

—

$8.2M

$4.8M

13%

—

$11K

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Landsman (D)

—

$4.6M

$3.6M

9%

$263

—

Conroy (R)

—

$1.5M

$474K

53%

$638K

—

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Kaptur (D)

—

$4.3M

$3.5M

20%

$760

—

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Sykes (D)

—

$3.1M

$1.9M

22%

$334

—

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Bynum (D)

—

$3.8M

$2.7M

22%

$125

—

Adair (R)

—

$424K

$135K

25%

—

—

Pennsylvania 8th

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Fitzpatrick (R)

—

$6.7M

$6.4M

7%

—

$38K

Bresnahan (R)

—

$5.2M

$2.6M

32%

—

$692K

Cognetti (D)

—

$4.6M

$3.4M

16%

$228K

—

Pennsylvania 10th

Safe D ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Stelson (D)

—

$6.4M

$4.5M

22%

$260K

$28K

Pennsylvania 17th

Safe D ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Deluzio (D)

—

$2.8M

$1.1M

34%

$14K

—

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

De La Cruz (R)

—

$5.3M

$2.5M

40%

—

$390K

Gonzalez (D)

—

$3.8M

$2.5M

9%

$3K

$88K

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Kiggans (R)

—

$6.0M

$3.4M

26%

$250K

$2K

Luria (D)

—

$4.7M

$3.6M

17%

$18K

—

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Vindman (D)

—

$12.4M

$6.6M

58%

$181K

$48K

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Gluesenkamp Perez (D)

—

$6.3M

$2.1M

11%

$83K

—

Braun (R)

—

$2.2M

$1.3M

13%

$20K

$275K

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Steil (R)

—

$5.5M

$6.3M

17%

—

—

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Cooke (D)

—

$8.6M

$1.8M

36%

$28K

—

Van Orden (R)

—

$7.5M

$4.7M

36%

$328K

$78K

Governor Races (24)

Methodology & Sources

Polling data from RealClearPolling averages. Scraped daily at 4:35 AM EST.

Campaign finance from the FEC API. Includes candidate committee financials, independent expenditures, and itemized contributions. Updated daily at 4:30 AM EST. FEC data typically lags 24-48 hours.

Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Split Ticket. Updated manually when rating changes occur.

Small-dollar % = unitemized individual contributions (<$200) as a share of total individual contributions. A proxy for grassroots energy.

IE (Independent Expenditures) = Super PAC and outside group spending for or against a candidate. "IE For" supports the candidate; "IE Agst" opposes them. Sourced from FEC Schedule E filings.

House Seat Model uses a simple heuristic: each point of generic ballot margin (adjusted for R+2 structural advantage) translates to approximately 5.5 House seats. This is a rough midterm heuristic, not a forecast. Confidence interval: ±15 seats.