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🗳️ Election Intelligence

Polls. Money. Markets.

Cross-referencing prediction market pricing, polling averages, and FEC campaign finance data for the 2026 midterms. The polls say one thing. The money says another. Here's where they diverge.

Last updated: Jul 06, 2026 11:32 PM

Presidential Approval

-16.8

40.3% approve · 57.1% disapprove

Generic Ballot

—

D —% · R —%

House Seat Model

R Holds

D— seats → —D / —R

Polymarket: D 84% / R 16%

Senate Control

No ratings

Cook / Sabato / Split Ticket

Polymarket: D 46% / R 54%

House Control Forecast

C: Lean D S: Lean D S: Likely D

Cook / Sabato / Split Ticket

Total Raised (Tracked Races)

$293.6M

36 candidates across 10 races

Outside Spending (IE)

$162.8M

$94.1M support · $68.7M oppose

IE Direction

$94.1M

$68.7M

■ Support ■ Oppose

Top Super PACs

#1 TEXANS FOR A CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY $45.3M 2 races

#2 AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (A... $20.1M 4 races

#3 PINE TREE RESULTS PAC $14.7M 1 race

#4 LONE STAR RISING PAC $12.1M 1 race

#5 UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP') $10.8M 1 race

Hottest Races (by $)

#1 Georgia Senate $92.7M

#2 Michigan Senate $71.9M

#3 Maine Senate $59.0M

#4 Ohio Senate (Special) $50.1M

#5 Texas Senate GOP Primary $48.4M

Senate Races (40)

Alaska Senate

Safe R D 60% / R 40% ○ ● ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Peltola (D)

—

$8.7M

$5.7M

46%

$11K

$1.6M

Sullivan (R)

—

$6.5M

$7.1M

$936K

$31K

📊 Prediction Market Vol: $357K

DEM 60¢

GOP 40¢

Georgia Senate

Safe D D 86% / R 14% ○ ● ●

C: Toss-Up S: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Ossoff (D)

—

$1.9M

$4.0M

41%

—

$7K

Carter (R)

—

$6.8M

$1.7M

23%

—

$977K

Collins (R)

—

$5.5M

$1.7M

49%

$1.5M

$853K

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +0.6% Vol: $37K

DEM 86¢

GOP 14¢

Maine Senate

Safe R D 60% / R 40% ○ ● ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Platner (D)

—

$16.3M

$2.2M

60%

$323K

$15.1M

Collins (R)

—

$12.2M

$9.7M

13%

$8.2M

$176K

Mills (D)

—

$5.8M

$717K

34%

$16K

—

📊 Prediction Market 📈 +3.5% Vol: $794K

DEM 60¢

GOP 40¢

Michigan Senate

Safe D D 73% / R 27% ○ ● ●

C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Stevens (D)

—

$8.9M

$3.4M

15%

$19.2M

—

Mcmorrow (D)

—

$8.6M

$3.7M

51%

$50

—

Rogers (R)

—

$7.7M

$4.3M

35%

$11.8M

$2K

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +0.7% Vol: $121K

DEM 73¢

GOP 27¢

Michigan Senate Dem Primary

○ ● ○

C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Slotkin (D)

—

$4.4M

$2.4M

63%

$123K

$12K

North Carolina Senate

Safe D D 86% / R 14% ○ ● ●

C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Cooper (D)

—

$26.8M

$18.5M

38%

$78K

$2.8M

Whatley (R)

—

$8.4M

$2.5M

34%

$7.8M

—

Nickel (D)

—

$589K

$689K

20%

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +0.6% Vol: $75K

DEM 86¢

GOP 14¢

Ohio Senate

Safe R D 47% / R 53% ○ ● ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Brown (D)

—

$26.0M

$17.0M

46%

$35K

$3.7M

Husted (R)

—

$10.5M

$8.2M

27%

$4.8M

$23K

Ode (D)

—

$5.0M

$32K

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ -16.5% Vol: $98K

DEM 47¢

GOP 53¢

Texas Senate General

Safe R D 43% / R 57% ○ ● ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Cornyn (R)

—

$7.9M

$4.1M

$12.9M

$6.3M

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ 0.0% Vol: $559K

DEM 43¢

GOP 57¢

Texas Senate Dem Primary

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Talarico (D)

—

$20.7M

$4.8M

59%

$5.1M

$500K

Crockett (D)

—

$8.6M

$3.5M

76%

$775K

$7.1M

Texas Senate GOP Primary

Safe R Paxton 100% / Cornyn 0% ○ ● ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Paxton (R)

—

$5.9M

$3.9M

13%

$1K

$24.9M

Cornyn (R)

—

$5.5M

$5.0M

$10.7M

$1.4M

📊 Primary Market Vol: $18.0M

Paxton 100¢

Ken Paxton 100¢

Illinois Senate

Safe D D 96% / R 4% ○ ○ ●

C: Safe D S: Safe D S: Safe D I: Safe D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Duckworth (D)

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ -1.4% Vol: $26K

DEM 96¢

GOP 4¢

House Races (56)

Governor Races (24)

Methodology & Sources

Polling data from RealClearPolling averages. Scraped daily at 4:35 AM EST.

Campaign finance from the FEC API. Includes candidate committee financials, independent expenditures, and itemized contributions. Updated daily at 4:30 AM EST. FEC data typically lags 24-48 hours.

Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Split Ticket. Updated manually when rating changes occur.

Small-dollar % = unitemized individual contributions (<$200) as a share of total individual contributions. A proxy for grassroots energy.

IE (Independent Expenditures) = Super PAC and outside group spending for or against a candidate. "IE For" supports the candidate; "IE Agst" opposes them. Sourced from FEC Schedule E filings.

House Seat Model uses a simple heuristic: each point of generic ballot margin (adjusted for R+2 structural advantage) translates to approximately 5.5 House seats. This is a rough midterm heuristic, not a forecast. Confidence interval: ±15 seats.

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