⏱ Election Day Countdown

🗳️ Election Intelligence

Polls. Money. Markets.

Cross-referencing prediction market pricing, polling averages, and FEC campaign finance data for the 2026 midterms. The polls say one thing. The money says another. Here's where they diverge.

Last updated: Apr 25, 2026 04:48 AM

National Indicators

RCP averages
Presidential Approval
-17.2
40.5% approve · 57.7% disapprove
Generic Ballot
D+5.7
D 48.3% · R 42.6%
House Seat Model
D Majority
D+20 seats → 235D / 200R
Polymarket: D 86% / R 14%
Senate Control
No ratings
Cook / Sabato / Split Ticket
Polymarket: D 52% / R 48%
House Control Forecast
C: Lean D S: Lean D S: Likely D
Cook / Sabato / Split Ticket

💰 Follow the Money

Full dashboard →
Total Raised (Tracked Races)
$1934.6M
512 candidates across 78 races
Outside Spending (IE)
$248.5M
$144.8M support · $103.7M oppose
IE Direction
$144.8M
$103.7M
■ Support   ■ Oppose
Top Super PACs
#2 AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC $31.8M 10 races
#3 DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS $29.0M 2 races
#4 FIGHT FOR KENTUCKY $23.0M 1 race
#5 LONE STAR RISING PAC $12.1M 1 race
Hottest Races (by $)
#1 New York 19th $78.7M
#2 Kentucky Senate $70.4M
#3 California 22nd $51.3M
#4 Florida 13th $50.2M
#5 California 45th $48.6M

Race Navigator

Click any race to view details
IA-03
·
$7.0M
Toss-Up
GA-SEN
84% · 16%
Toss-Up
GA-SEN-R-PRIMARY
·
Toss-Up
MI-SEN
78% · 22%
Toss-Up
MI-SEN-D-PRIMARY
·
Toss-Up
NC-SEN
86% · 14%
Toss-Up
NY-19
·
Toss-Up
AZ-GOV
78% · 22%
Toss-Up
NV-GOV
58% · 42%
Toss-Up
WI-GOV
77% · 23%
Toss-Up
NY-17
·
$18.4M
Lean D
PA-08
·
$12.3M
Lean D
VA-07
·
$9.7M
Lean D
MI-07
·
$9.0M
Lean D
NJ-07
·
$9.0M
Lean D
NE-02
·
$5.1M
Lean R
CA-45
·
$3.9M
Lean D
OH-09
·
$3.3M
Lean D
AK-SEN
64% · 36%
Lean R
FL-GOV-R-PRIMARY
·
Lean R
ME-SEN
78% · 22%
Lean R
OH-SEN
57% · 42%
Lean R
CA-13
·
Lean D
CA-22
·
Lean R
CO-08
·
Lean D
PA-01
·
Lean D
TX-34
·
Lean R
FL-GOV
27% · 73%
Lean R
GA-GOV
68% · 32%
Lean R
MI-GOV
80% · 20%
Lean D
MN-GOV
93% · 7%
Lean D
PA-GOV
94% · 6%
Lean D
TX-SEN-D-PRIMARY
·
$29.3M
Likely R
LA-SEN
·
$24.3M
KY-SEN
·
$20.8M
Safe R
SC-SEN
·
$20.1M
OK-SEN
·
$18.2M
WI-03
·
$12.2M
TX-SEN-R-PRIMARY
Paxton · 56%
$11.4M
Likely R
AZ-01
·
$9.9M
ME-02
·
$7.9M
NV-04
·
$7.8M
VA-02
·
$7.6M
AZ-02
·
$7.4M
NH-01
·
$7.4M
AL-SEN
·
$7.3M
Safe R
AR-SEN
·
$7.1M
NV-03
·
$6.3M
TN-SEN
·
$5.9M
WA-03
·
$5.7M
MS-SEN
·
$5.7M
WV-SEN
·
$5.6M
Safe R
AZ-06
·
$5.3M
NM-SEN
·
$4.7M
MI-08
·
$4.4M
WI-01
·
$4.4M
PA-10
·
$4.4M
MI-10
·
$4.3M
TX-15
·
$4.2M
KS-SEN
·
$4.1M
OH-01
·
$3.5M
OR-05
·
$3.3M
ID-SEN
·
$3.3M
NM-02
·
$3.3M
SD-SEN
·
$3.2M
WY-SEN
·
$3.0M
CO-03
·
$3.0M
NC-01
·
$2.7M
OH-13
·
$2.5M
PA-17
·
$2.2M
MI-03
·
$1.9M
CT-05
·
$1.2M
NV-01
·
$934K
IA-01
·
$698K
AL-SEN-R-PRIMARY
·
Safe R
CO-SEN
90% · 10%
DE-SEN
·
FL-SEN
18% · 82%
Likely R
IA-SEN
·
Likely R
IL-SEN
93% · 7%
Safe D
MA-SEN
·
Safe D
MN-SEN
92% · 8%
Likely D
MT-SEN
23% · 77%
Likely R
NE-SEN
30% · 70%
Likely R
NH-SEN
86% · 14%
Likely D
NJ-SEN
·
OH-GOV-R-PRIMARY
·
Likely R
OR-SEN
93% · 7%
RI-SEN
·
TX-SEN
44% · 56%
Likely R
TX-SEN-R-RUNOFF
·
VA-SEN
94% · 6%
CA-03
·
CA-27
·
CA-40
·
CA-41
·
CA-47
·
CA-48
·
CA-49
·
FL-13
·
MI-04
·
MN-02
·
NY-03
·
NY-04
·
NY-18
·
NY-22
·
PA-07
·
AK-GOV
0% · 100%
CA-GOV
0% · 100%
Safe D
CO-GOV
92% · 8%
IL-GOV
93% · 7%
MD-GOV
94% · 6%
ME-GOV
86% · 14%
Safe D
NM-GOV
90% · 10%
NY-GOV
91% · 9%
Safe D
OH-GOV
54% · 46%
Likely R
OR-GOV
82% · 18%
RI-GOV
·
SC-GOV
·
TN-GOV
·
TX-GOV
17% · 83%
Likely R

Tracked Races

polls   FEC   market
Senate Races (41)
Alabama Senate
Toss-Up
C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Moore (R)
$2.2M
$845K
12%
$25.0M
Walker (R)
$2.0M
$1.2M
0%
Hudson (R)
$1.4M
$620K
14%
$623K
Arkansas Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Cotton (R)
$5.4M
$9.8M
17%
$1.2M
Shoffner (D)
$1.6M
$579K
42%
$1.4M
Little (R)
$93K
$127
15%
Idaho Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Risch (U)
$2.7M
$3.8M
7%
Achilles (I)
$413K
$141K
16%
Lave (R)
$161K
$159K
3%
Kansas Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Marshall (R)
$3.3M
$4.8M
8%
Spidel Neumann (D)
$187K
$38K
42%
Murray (D)
$180K
$46K
6%
Kentucky Senate
Toss-Up
C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Barr (R)
$8.0M
$4.2M
14%
$4.1M
$10.3M
Morris (R)
$7.0M
$581K
33%
$27.8M
$6.0M
Cameron (R)
$2.1M
$765K
25%
$350K
$996K
Louisiana Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Fleming (R)
$11.2M
$2.2M
6%
Cassidy (R)
$6.5M
$7.1M
2%
$515K
$204K
Letlow (R)
$3.9M
$2.3M
10%
$3.5M
$9.4M
Mississippi Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hyde-Smith (R)
$3.4M
$2.5M
5%
$233K
$127K
Colom (D)
$1.6M
$560K
17%
$432K
Adlakha (R)
$566K
$10K
6%
New Mexico Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Lujan (D)
$4.7M
$4.2M
45%
$311
Oklahoma Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hern (R)
$8.3M
$8.2M
4%
$12K
Inhofe (R)
$6.5M
$432K
20%
Mullin (R)
$3.2M
$2.4M
5%
South Carolina Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Andrews (D)
$6.5M
$2.6M
62%
$121K
Graham (R)
$5.9M
$11.6M
5%
$358K
Lynch (R)
$5.7M
$3.3M
53%
$817K
South Dakota Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Rounds (R)
$2.4M
$2.9M
3%
$134K
Bengs (I)
$565K
$54K
67%
Beaudion (D)
$192K
$6K
28%
Tennessee Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hagerty (R)
$5.9M
$5.7M
25%
$3.0M
Texas Senate Dem Primary
Safe D
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Talarico (D)
$20.7M
$4.8M
59%
$5.1M
$500K
Crockett (D)
$8.6M
$3.5M
76%
$775K
$7.1M
Texas Senate GOP Primary
Safe R Paxton 56% / Cornyn 42%
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Paxton (R)
$5.9M
$3.9M
13%
$1K
$24.9M
Cornyn (R)
$5.5M
$5.0M
5%
$10.7M
$1.4M
📊 Primary Market Vol: $15.8M
Paxton 56¢
Cornyn 42¢
Ken Paxton 56¢ John Cornyn 42¢ Dawn Buckingham <1¢ Wesley Hunt <1¢
West Virginia Senate
Safe R
C: Safe R S: Safe R I: Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Capito (R)
$3.6M
$5.0M
2%
$461K
Evans (R)
$1.1M
$61K
72%
Shrewsbury (D)
$461K
$8K
81%
Wyoming Senate
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hageman (R)
$1.6M
$1.2M
55%
$59K
Lummis (R)
$1.5M
$1.6M
20%
$476K
Alaska Senate
Safe R D 64% / R 36%
C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Sullivan (R)
Peltola (D)
📊 Prediction Market Vol: $306K
DEM 64¢
GOP 36¢
Georgia Senate
Safe D D 84% / R 16%
C: Toss-Up S: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Ossoff (D)
📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +6.8% Vol: $23K
DEM 84¢
GOP 16¢
Illinois Senate
Safe D D 93% / R 7%
C: Safe D S: Safe D S: Safe D I: Safe D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Duckworth (D)
📊 Prediction Market ➡️ 0.0% Vol: $22K
DEM 93¢
GOP
Maine Senate
Safe R D 78% / R 22%
C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Collins (R)
📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +4.0% Vol: $58K
DEM 78¢
GOP 22¢
Texas Senate General
Safe R D 44% / R 56%
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Cornyn (R)
📊 Prediction Market ➡️ 0.0% Vol: $184K
DEM 44¢
GOP 56¢
Ohio Senate
Husted +2.6 Safe R D 57% / R 42%
C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Husted (R)
48.3%
Brown (D)
45.7%
📊 Prediction Market ➡️ 0.0% Vol: $71K
DEM 57¢
GOP 42¢
North Carolina Senate
Cooper +6.8 Safe D D 86% / R 14%
C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Cooper (D)
49.0%
Whatley (R)
42.2%
📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +0.6% Vol: $50K
DEM 86¢
GOP 14¢
Michigan Senate Dem Primary
Morrow +0.0
C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Morrow (D)
23.0%
Sayed (D)
23.0%
Stevens (D)
18.0%
Alabama Senate GOP Primary
Marshall +5.5
C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Marshall (R)
23.5%
Moore (R)
18.0%
Hudson (R)
14.5%
Georgia Senate GOP Primary
Collins +13.0
C: Toss-Up S: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Collins (R)
30.8%
Carter (R)
17.8%
Dooley (R)
11.8%
House Races (56)
Arizona 1st
Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Crane (R)
$7.4M
$2.3M
40%
$51K
Treble (D)
$2.5M
$1.7M
8%
Arizona 2nd
Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Ciscomani (R)
$5.1M
$3.8M
22%
$20K
Nez (D)
$2.3M
$1.4M
49%
$4K
Arizona 6th
Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Mendoza (D)
$5.3M
$3.5M
50%
$91
California 45th
Safe D
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Tran (D)
$3.9M
$2.6M
25%
$6K
$5K
Colorado 3rd
Safe D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hurd (R)
$3.0M
$1.9M
4%
Connecticut 5th
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Hayes (D)
$1.1M
$990K
26%
$130
Shea (R)
$163K
$139K
19%
Iowa 1st
Safe R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Wettach (D)
$698K
10%
Iowa 3rd
Safe R
C: Toss-Up S: Lean R I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Nunn (R)
$3.9M
$3.0M
16%
$2K
Trone Garriott (D)
$3.1M
$2.2M
19%
Maine 2nd
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Wood (D)
$5.1M
$696K
71%
Lepage (R)
$1.9M
$1.3M
11%
Dunlap (D)
$628K
$244K
59%
Michigan 3rd
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Scholten (D)
$1.9M
$1.2M
11%
$133
Michigan 7th
Safe D
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Barrett (R)
$5.0M
$2.8M
51%
$102K
$11K
Brink (D)
$2.3M
$1.3M
27%
Maasdam (D)
$1.7M
$937K
28%
Michigan 8th
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Mcdonald Rivet (D)
$4.4M
$3.4M
12%
$180
Michigan 10th
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Mcclain (R)
$4.3M
$1.3M
37%
$4K
North Carolina 1st
Safe D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Buckhout (R)
$2.7M
$1.5M
13%
Nebraska 2nd
Safe R
C: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Powell (D)
$1.5M
$458K
19%
$1.5M
Harding (R)
$1.2M
$737K
2%
$448
Cavanaugh (D)
$1.0M
$345K
15%
$467K
New Hampshire 1st
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Sullivan (D)
$2.6M
$1.5M
16%
$382
Shaheen (D)
$1.8M
$1.1M
18%
Dilorenzo (R)
$1.3M
$827K
5%
New Jersey 7th
Safe D
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Kean (R)
$4.4M
$3.4M
11%
$2K
Bennett (D)
$2.7M
$1.4M
15%
Shah (D)
$2.0M
$1.4M
16%
New Mexico 2nd
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Vasquez (D)
$2.9M
$1.9M
17%
Cunningham (R)
$397K
$204K
15%
Orozco (R)
Nevada 1st
Safe D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Buck (R)
$934K
$369K
41%
Nevada 3rd
Safe D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
O'Donnell (R)
$3.2M
$2.7M
51%
Titus (D)
$1.2M
$1.1M
8%
$5K
Nagy (R)
$1.1M
$746K
2%
Nevada 4th
Safe D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Lee (D)
$3.5M
$3.1M
9%
Horsford (D)
$2.6M
$1.1M
18%
$6K
Flippo (R)
$1.7M
$644K
1%
$116K
New York 17th
Safe D
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Chatzky (D)
$11.6M
$5.6M
12%
Lawler (R)
$6.7M
$4.2M
14%
$1K
Ohio 1st
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Landsman (D)
$3.5M
$2.9M
9%
$90
Ohio 9th
Safe D
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Kaptur (D)
$3.3M
$3.1M
21%
$586
Ohio 13th
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Sykes (D)
$2.5M
$1.6M
21%
$262
Oregon 5th
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Bynum (D)
$3.0M
$2.3M
23%
$125
Adair (R)
$277K
$189K
22%
Pennsylvania 8th
Safe D
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Fitzpatrick (R)
$5.5M
$7.7M
7%
Bresnahan (R)
$4.2M
$2.2M
30%
$2K
Cognetti (D)
$2.6M
$1.9M
15%
$91K
Pennsylvania 10th
Safe D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Stelson (D)
$4.4M
$3.2M
22%
$39K
$28K
Pennsylvania 17th
Safe D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Deluzio (D)
$2.2M
$996K
36%
$14K
Texas 15th
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
De La Cruz (R)
$4.2M
$2.3M
39%
Virginia 2nd
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Kiggans (R)
$4.7M
$3.0M
27%
$2K
Luria (D)
$2.9M
$2.3M
16%
$382
Virginia 7th
Safe D
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Vindman (D)
$9.7M
$5.3M
59%
$181K
Washington 3rd
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
$4.5M
$3.5M
12%
$55K
Braun (R)
$1.2M
$918K
9%
$55K
Wisconsin 1st
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Steil (R)
$4.4M
$5.6M
14%
Wisconsin 3rd
Toss-Up
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
IE For
IE Agst
Cooke (D)
$6.5M
$4.4M
39%
$104
Van Orden (R)
$5.7M
$3.8M
36%
$258K
$31K
Governor Races (24)

Methodology & Sources

Polling data from RealClearPolling averages. Scraped daily at 4:35 AM EST.

Campaign finance from the FEC API. Includes candidate committee financials, independent expenditures, and itemized contributions. Updated daily at 4:30 AM EST. FEC data typically lags 24-48 hours.

Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Split Ticket. Updated manually when rating changes occur.

Small-dollar % = unitemized individual contributions (<$200) as a share of total individual contributions. A proxy for grassroots energy.

IE (Independent Expenditures) = Super PAC and outside group spending for or against a candidate. "IE For" supports the candidate; "IE Agst" opposes them. Sourced from FEC Schedule E filings.

House Seat Model uses a simple heuristic: each point of generic ballot margin (adjusted for R+2 structural advantage) translates to approximately 5.5 House seats. This is a rough midterm heuristic, not a forecast. Confidence interval: ±15 seats.