⏱ Election Day Countdown

🗳️ Election Intelligence

Polls. Money. Markets.

Cross-referencing prediction market pricing, polling averages, and FEC campaign finance data for the 2026 midterms. The polls say one thing. The money says another. Here's where they diverge.

Last updated: Nov 01, 2026 06:45 PM

National Indicators

RCP averages

Presidential Approval

—

—% approve · —% disapprove

Generic Ballot

—

D —% · R —%

House Seat Model

R Holds

D— seats → —D / —R

Polymarket: D 94% / R 6%

Senate Control

No ratings

Cook / Sabato / Split Ticket

Polymarket: D 72% / R 28%

House Control Forecast

C: Lean D S: Lean D S: Likely D

Cook / Sabato / Split Ticket

💰 Follow the Money

Full dashboard →

Total Raised (Tracked Races)

$3444.3M

426 candidates across 68 races

Outside Spending (IE)

$18209.5M

$4820.4M support · $13389.1M oppose

IE Direction

$4820.4M

$13389.1M

■ Support ■ Oppose

Top Super PACs

#1 SLF PAC $2139.3M 12 races

#2 WINSENATE $1805.0M 8 races

#3 HMP $1228.0M 31 races

#4 NO GOING BACK PAC INC. $1022.4M 24 races

#5 DEFEND AMERICAN JOBS $631.2M 12 races

Hottest Races (by $)

#1 Michigan Senate $3550.4M

#2 Ohio Senate (Special) $3132.6M

#3 Texas Senate $1770.9M

#4 Iowa Senate $767.9M

#5 Maine Senate $666.2M

Race Navigator

Click any race to view details

GA-SEN-R-PRIMARY

MI-SEN-D-PRIMARY

FL-GOV-R-PRIMARY

TX-SEN-D-PRIMARY

TX-SEN-R-PRIMARY

AL-SEN-R-PRIMARY

OH-GOV-R-PRIMARY

TX-SEN-R-RUNOFF

Tracked Races

● polls ● FEC ● market

Senate Races (41)

Safe R D 74% / R 26% ○ ● ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Peltola (D)

—

$36.9M

$4.1M

38%

$47.2M

$236.8M

Sullivan (R)

—

$11.5M

$2.8M

15%

$47.2M

$189.5M

📊 Prediction Market Vol: $2.5M

DEM 74¢

GOP 26¢

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Moore (R)

—

$4.6M

$467K

14%

$171.9M

—

Walker (R)

—

$2.0M

—

0%

—

—

Hudson (R)

—

$1.9M

—

16%

$7.7M

$12.0M

Arkansas Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Cotton (R)

—

$7.1M

$5.1M

18%

$1.3M

—

Shoffner (D)

—

$4.0M

$757K

34%

$45K

$6.6M

Little (R)

—

$93K

$127

15%

—

—

Delaware Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Coons (D)

—

$5.0M

$5.0M

3%

$255K

—

Katz (R)

—

$190K

$16K

18%

—

—

Shulli (R)

—

$126K

$51

18%

—

—

Safe R D 10% / R 90% ○ ● ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Vindman (D)

—

$20.5M

$4.1M

63%

$4K

—

Weil (D)

—

$15.9M

—

75%

—

—

Moody (R)

—

$14.5M

$816K

30%

$17.8M

$14.3M

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +11.8% Vol: $595K

DEM 10¢

GOP 90¢

Safe D D 97% / R 3% ○ ● ●

C: Toss-Up S: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Ossoff (D)

—

$3.6M

$4.1M

50%

—

$7K

Walker (R)

—

$73.7M

$5.0M

50%

—

—

Collins (R)

—

$10.7M

$1.1M

43%

$10.2M

$49.5M

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +1.2% Vol: $455K

DEM 97¢

GOP 3¢

Georgia Senate GOP Primary

C: Toss-Up S: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Walker (R)

—

$73.7M

$5.0M

50%

—

—

Safe R D 42% / R 58% ○ ● ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Turek (D)

—

$24.3M

$3.1M

40%

$88.0M

$130.0M

Arenholz (R)

—

$14.1M

$2.2M

21%

$87.0M

$420.9M

Sage (D)

—

$1.4M

$9

71%

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +2.4% Vol: $1.9M

DEM 42¢

GOP 58¢

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Risch (U)

—

$3.9M

$2.1M

8%

$9K

$35K

Achilles (I)

—

$1.9M

$196K

27%

$120K

—

Lave (R)

—

$171K

—

7%

—

—

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hamilton (D)

—

$19.2M

$2.9M

28%

$33.5M

$94.8M

Marshall (R)

—

$5.4M

$810K

9%

$16.0M

$233.2M

Spidel Neumann (D)

—

$412K

$27K

42%

—

—

Kentucky Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Barr (R)

—

$12.5M

$1.6M

12%

$31.0M

$33.0M

Morris (R)

—

$9.1M

$410K

34%

$49.6M

$14.7M

Mcgrath (D)

—

$2.4M

$4K

53%

$159K

—

Louisiana Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Fleming (R)

—

$12.3M

$5K

8%

$33K

$1.4M

Letlow (R)

—

$7.1M

$443K

11%

$46.6M

$40.9M

Cassidy (R)

—

$6.7M

$685K

2%

$1.1M

$1.1M

Massachusetts Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

C: Safe D S: Safe D S: Safe D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Moulton (D)

—

$6.7M

$105K

10%

$4.5M

$3.9M

Markey (D)

—

$6.0M

$800K

33%

$86K

$6.7M

Deaton (R)

—

$1.7M

$488K

16%

$644K

—

Safe R D 70% / R 30% ○ ● ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Jackson (D)

—

$26.9M

$1.6M

41%

$41.1M

$212.6M

Collins (R)

—

$22.5M

$2.7M

17%

$51.8M

$276.1M

Wood (D)

—

$6.4M

$19K

69%

—

—

📊 Prediction Market 📈 +18.5% Vol: $3.3M

DEM 70¢

GOP 30¢

Michigan Senate

Safe D D 74% / R 26% ○ ● ●

C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

El-Sayed (D)

—

$53.8M

$2.7M

41%

$335.1M

$2.0B

Rogers (R)

—

$23.0M

$3.9M

24%

$389.5M

$516.0M

Stevens (D)

—

$13.3M

$152K

15%

$188.8M

$2.5M

📊 Prediction Market 📉 +10.4% Vol: $6.5M

DEM 74¢

GOP 26¢

Michigan Senate Dem Primary

C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Slotkin (D)

—

$6.0M

$2.9M

58%

$123K

$12K

Minnesota Senate

Toss-Up D 93% / R 7% ○ ● ●

C: Likely D S: Likely D S: Likely D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Craig (D)

—

$13.4M

$148K

21%

$42.6M

$8.2M

Tafoya (R)

—

$12.5M

$2.8M

47%

$87K

$1.5M

Flanagan (D)

—

$11.6M

$993K

42%

$7.2M

$36.5M

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +9.4% Vol: $746K

DEM 93¢

GOP 7¢

Mississippi Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hyde-Smith (R)

—

$4.6M

$1.4M

5%

$1.9M

$14.2M

Colom (D)

—

$4.4M

$1.0M

28%

$20.6M

$3.3M

Adlakha (R)

—

$566K

$10K

6%

—

—

Safe R D 10% / R 90% ○ ● ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Bodnar (I)

—

$4.9M

$581K

15%

$26.1M

$6.0M

Alme (R)

—

$3.0M

$603K

11%

$6.4M

$1.4M

Neill (D)

—

$307K

$313

64%

$5K

$2.6M

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +18.8% Vol: $379K

DEM 10¢

GOP 90¢

North Carolina Senate

Safe D D 98% / R 2% ○ ● ●

C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Cooper (D)

—

$49.6M

$9.1M

33%

$32.8M

$353.8M

Whatley (R)

—

$13.7M

$902K

31%

$48.2M

$129.2M

Nickel (D)

—

$589K

$689K

20%

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +0.6% Vol: $334K

DEM 98¢

GOP 2¢

Nebraska Senate

Safe R D 28% / R 72% ○ ● ●

C: Likely R S: Lean R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Ricketts (R)

—

$14.5M

$1.2M

11%

$10.3M

$69.9M

Osborn (I)

—

$11.0M

$2.0M

38%

$50.3M

$124.9M

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +1.8% Vol: $2.2M

DEM 28¢

GOP 72¢

New Hampshire Senate

Safe D D 94% / R 6% ○ ● ●

C: Likely D S: Likely D S: Likely D I: Likely D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Pappas (D)

—

$23.7M

$2.0M

34%

—

—

Sununu (R)

—

$5.7M

$1.7M

20%

—

—

Brown (R)

—

$2.3M

$356K

45%

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +2.2% Vol: $580K

DEM 94¢

GOP 6¢

New Jersey Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Booker (D)

—

$35.9M

$22.9M

59%

$135

—

Lebovics (R)

—

$178K

—

2%

—

—

Murphy (R)

—

$68K

$10K

32%

$1K

—

New Mexico Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Lujan (D)

—

$6.5M

$2.8M

38%

$275K

—

Marker (R)

—

$99K

$88

8%

—

—

Safe R D 74% / R 26% ○ ● ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Brown (D)

—

$68.4M

$4.5M

39%

$177.0M

$1.6B

Husted (R)

—

$19.9M

$4.2M

30%

$417.1M

$889.7M

Ode (D)

—

$5.0M

$25K

—

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +10.5% Vol: $2.5M

DEM 74¢

GOP 26¢

Oklahoma Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hern (R)

—

$10.9M

$2.8M

16%

$10.2M

—

Mullin (R)

—

$3.2M

$1.3M

5%

—

—

Priest (D)

—

$427K

—

12%

—

—

Toss-Up D 99% / R 1% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Merkley (D)

—

$5.4M

$6.6M

30%

$120

—

Smith (R)

—

$311K

$44K

43%

$25K

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +0.2% Vol: $11K

DEM 99¢

GOP 1¢

Rhode Island Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Reed (D)

—

$3.7M

$1.9M

2%

$10

—

Mckay (R)

—

$207K

$8K

37%

—

—

Bahry (I)

—

$125K

$93K

9%

—

—

South Carolina Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Andrews (D)

—

$24.2M

$1.7M

53%

$16.5M

$44.2M

Graham (R)

—

$1.9M

$634K

11%

$28.0M

$22.6M

Lynch (R)

—

$5.9M

$94K

51%

$36K

$11.4M

South Dakota Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Rounds (R)

—

$3.8M

$1.3M

3%

$1.4M

$1.4M

Bengs (I)

—

$1.9M

$70K

48%

$880K

$985K

Beaudion (D)

—

$248K

$696

30%

—

—

Tennessee Senate

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hagerty (R)

—

$8.4M

$5.0M

25%

$7.1M

—

Texas Senate General

Safe R D 70% / R 30% ○ ● ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Talarico (D)

—

$146.3M

$9.9M

54%

$63.3M

$424.2M

Paxton (R)

—

$22.3M

$4.8M

29%

$446.9M

$527.1M

Crockett (D)

—

$11.1M

—

77%

$1.5M

$9.0M

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +11.0% Vol: $10.6M

DEM 70¢

GOP 30¢

Texas Senate Dem Primary

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Talarico (D)

—

$20.7M

$4.8M

59%

$5.1M

$500K

Crockett (D)

—

$8.6M

$3.5M

76%

$775K

$7.1M

Texas Senate GOP Primary

Safe R Paxton 100% / Cornyn 0% ○ ● ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Paxton (R)

—

$5.9M

$3.9M

13%

$1K

$24.9M

Cornyn (R)

—

$5.5M

$5.0M

5%

$10.7M

$1.4M

📊 Primary Market Vol: $18.0M

Paxton 100¢

Ken Paxton 100¢

West Virginia Senate

Safe R D 1% / R 99% ○ ● ●

C: Safe R S: Safe R I: Safe R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Capito (R)

—

$5.4M

$3.1M

5%

$984K

—

Evans (R)

—

$1.1M

$61K

72%

—

—

Willis (R)

—

$642K

—

2%

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ -12.1% Vol: $23K

DEM 1¢

GOP 99¢

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hageman (R)

—

$2.8M

$439K

42%

$4.2M

—

Lummis (R)

—

$1.5M

$815K

20%

$476K

—

Mead (R)

—

$299K

$14K

8%

—

$51K

Illinois Senate

Safe D D 99% / R 1% ○ ○ ●

C: Safe D S: Safe D S: Safe D I: Safe D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Duckworth (D)

—

—

—

—

—

—

📊 Prediction Market ➡️ +2.1% Vol: $41K

DEM 99¢

GOP 1¢

House Races (56)

Safe R ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Crane (R)

—

$11.9M

$1.3M

38%

$23.9M

$21.3M

Shah (D)

—

$5.7M

$206K

20%

$6.1M

$51.5M

Treble (D)

—

$4.5M

—

8%

$734K

—

Safe R ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Ciscomani (R)

—

$7.6M

$619K

20%

$12.0M

$45.6M

Nez (D)

—

$5.8M

$506K

43%

$3.0M

$11.5M

Safe R ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Mendoza (D)

—

$11.2M

$808K

42%

$7.8M

$11.9M

California 22nd

Safe R ○ ● ○

C: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Villegas (D)

—

$5.9M

$962K

30%

$34.6M

$50.8M

California 45th

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Tran (D)

—

$6.0M

$2.7M

22%

$1.3M

$5K

Safe D ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hurd (R)

—

$4.2M

$238K

4%

$1.5M

$2.5M

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Rutinel (D)

—

$9.5M

$1.0M

42%

$57.4M

$57.3M

Evans (R)

—

$7.2M

$1.3M

39%

$15.8M

$106.7M

Safe R ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Wettach (D)

—

$698K

—

10%

—

—

Safe R ○ ● ○

C: Toss-Up S: Lean R I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Trone Garriott (D)

—

$8.1M

$1.2M

19%

$6.2M

$19.4M

Nunn (R)

—

$6.1M

$621K

12%

$2.7M

$13.4M

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Lepage (R)

—

$3.3M

$848K

12%

$805K

$12.1M

Dunlap (D)

—

$3.0M

$444K

37%

$4.3M

$16.9M

Baldacci (D)

—

$665K

$6K

12%

$2.3M

$1.1M

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Mccann (D)

—

$4.7M

$1.0M

20%

$4.1M

$30.3M

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Barrett (R)

—

$8.2M

$1.0M

42%

$5.2M

$61.4M

Lawrence (D)

—

$4.2M

$629K

24%

$30.8M

$85.3M

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Mcdonald Rivet (D)

—

$6.9M

$2.7M

11%

$983K

$1.9M

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Mcclain (R)

—

$6.0M

$1.8M

35%

$167K

—

Hines (D)

—

$4.2M

$1.0M

22%

$13.1M

$13.4M

Safe R ○ ● ○

C: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Powell (D)

—

$5.1M

$480K

21%

$21.1M

$5.1M

Harding (R)

—

$2.9M

$313K

6%

$943K

$8.0M

Cavanaugh (D)

—

$1.4M

$12K

15%

$601K

$4.5M

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Toss-Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Bennett (D)

—

$8.8M

$1.1M

18%

$32.5M

$47.1M

Kean (R)

—

$6.1M

$1.4M

10%

$362K

$2.5M

Shah (D)

—

$2.3M

$39K

17%

$450K

—

Toss-Up ○ ● ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Vasquez (D)

—

$5.5M

$497K

17%

$1.2M

$6.5M

Cunningham (R)

—

$2.5M

$344K

21%

$789K

$6.5M

Orozco (R)

—

$219K

$3K

0%

—

—

Safe D ○ ● ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Chatzky (D)

—

$11.7M

$789

12%

—

—

Conley (D)

—

$10.7M

$949K

22%

$31.6M

$48.5M

Lawler (R)

—

$10.3M

$2.0M

13%

$12.8M

$17.6M

North Carolina 1st

Safe D ○ ○ ○

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Buckhout (R)

—

—

—

—

—

—

Governor Races (24)

Methodology & Sources

Polling data from RealClearPolling averages. Scraped daily at 4:35 AM EST.

Campaign finance from the FEC API. Includes candidate committee financials, independent expenditures, and itemized contributions. Updated daily at 4:30 AM EST. FEC data typically lags 24-48 hours.

Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Split Ticket. Updated manually when rating changes occur.

Small-dollar % = unitemized individual contributions (<$200) as a share of total individual contributions. A proxy for grassroots energy.

IE (Independent Expenditures) = Super PAC and outside group spending for or against a candidate. "IE For" supports the candidate; "IE Agst" opposes them. Sourced from FEC Schedule E filings.

House Seat Model uses a simple heuristic: each point of generic ballot margin (adjusted for R+2 structural advantage) translates to approximately 5.5 House seats. This is a rough midterm heuristic, not a forecast. Confidence interval: ±15 seats.