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Senate · Michigan · General Election

Michigan Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: August 4, 2026
C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up
Last updated: Jul 06, 2026 11:32 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$37.6M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$34.3M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$171.4M
61 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe D
Signal Alignment DEM at 100%
Data Signals
Money
DEM
DEM $2.5M / REP $0.0M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
EVEN
Toss-Up (unanimous) — Cook: Toss-Up / Sabato: Toss-Up / Inside: Toss-Up
📈 Slotkin: Net IE: +111K
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
A STRONGER MICHIGAN
Supporting Stevens
$9.6M
UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP')
Supporting Stevens
$8.4M
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC
Supporting Rogers
$6.7M
UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP')
Opposing El-Sayed
$2.3M
GLCF, INC.
Supporting Rogers
$1.9M
SLF PAC
Supporting Rogers
$1.6M
THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND
Supporting Rogers
$1.4M
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE
Supporting Stevens
$1000K
NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION
Opposing El-Sayed
$490K
COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND
Opposing El-Sayed
$290K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
73%
DEM Price
→ +0.7% 7d
28%
REP Price
→ -1.8% 7d
$121K
Total Volume
24h: $2K
0.3%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +3.5% 30d REP: -11.3%
DEM 73% 74%72%70% Jun 07Jun 22Jul 06
REP 28% 32%30%28% Jun 07Jun 22Jul 06
Spread: 2.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Normal
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: REP 63%
🔵 7 DEM whales ($2K)  ·  🔴 7 REP whales ($4K) · 3 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
yukonboi
REP
$2K
75¢ → 27¢ (-$1,132)
anciano
REP
$656
79¢ → 27¢ (-$469)
WeJustBettin
DEM
$610
83¢ → 72¢ (-$91)
paspor
REP
$500
—
trumpusan
DEM
$482
75¢ → 72¢ (-$18)
ThatOneLatino
REP
$468
28¢ → 27¢ (-$16)
varch01
DEM
$432
76¢ → 72¢ (-$25)
DkOYL
REP
$353
—
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $18.7M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $171.4M in campaign spending in this race.
61
Corporate Clients
$18.7M
Lobbying Spend
$171.4M
Campaign Spending
217
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 🤖 Tech & AI 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 ⚡
$3.4M
$6.7M
Rogers
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$2.7M
$6.7M
Rogers
NATIONAL TREASURY EMPLOYEES UNION 🛡️ 🏥 💰
$1.6M
$7K
Slotkin
NATIONAL NURSES UNITED 🤖 🏥 🏭
$1.4M
$490K
EL-SAYED
BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD OF MICHIGAN 🏥 💰 🛡️
$1.4M
$84K
STEVENS
SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION CTW-CLC 🏥 ⚡ 🏭
$1.2M
$7K
Slotkin
AMERICAN NURSES ASSOCIATION 🏥
$1.2M
$490K
EL-SAYED
NOTARIZE, INC. DBA PROOF.COM 🤖 🛡️ 💰
$610K
$6.7M
Rogers
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Slotkin (DEM) Top employer groups (5 also lobby Congress)
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY
$8K (121)
ALLIANCE FOR AUTOMOTIVE INNOVATION LOBBY+DONATE
$6K (5)
APOLLO
$5K (2)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$5K (2)
WOODLAND FOODS
$5K (2)
JACKSON & MACNICHOL
$4K (3)
CITY ALUMINUM FOUNDRY
$4K (5)
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
$4K (88)
AVERI
$4K (1)
HONIGMAN
$4K (1)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$55.6B
Total Awards
44%
Defense ($2.9B)
9,962,311
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Military Armored Vehicle, Tank · $2.5B Automobile Manufacturing · $2.4B Motor Vehicle Transmission and · $312.9M Engineering Services · $258.2M Light Truck and Utility Vehicl · $252.4M Other Heavy and Civil Engineer · $247.1M
Recipient Amount
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN
$33.6B
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
$3.1B
TRANSPORTATION, MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF
$2.4B
GENERAL DYNAMICS LAND SYSTEMS INC.
$2.1B
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND ECONOMI
$2.0B
BAE SYSTEMS LAND AND ARMAMENTS L.P.
$1.3B
FCA US LLC
$1.3B
REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
$1.3B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Stevens (D)
—
$8.9M
$3.4M
15%
62%
$19.2M
—
Mcmorrow (D)
—
$8.6M
$3.7M
51%
57%
$50
—
Rogers (R)
—
$7.7M
$4.3M
35%
48%
$11.8M
$2K
El-Sayed (D)
—
$7.6M
$2.5M
26%
67%
$820K
$2.3M
Slotkin (D)
—
$4.4M
$2.4M
63%
52%
$123K
$12K
Tate (D)
—
$244K
—
24%
100%
—
—
Scott (R)
—
$76K
$7K
10%
91%
—
—
Smith (R)
—
$54K
$1K
12%
98%
—
—
Financial Breakdown
Stevens (D)
Total Raised
$8,870,471
Cash on Hand
$3,388,918
Disbursements
$5,481,553
Individual Contributions
$6,479,181
PAC Contributions
$564,556
Small Dollar %
14.8%
Burn Rate
61.8%
Net IE Advantage
+$19.2M
Mcmorrow (D)
Total Raised
$8,624,066
Cash on Hand
$3,692,546
Disbursements
$4,931,520
Individual Contributions
$8,475,065
PAC Contributions
$58,719
Small Dollar %
50.9%
Burn Rate
57.2%
Net IE Advantage
+$50
Rogers (R)
Total Raised
$7,676,445
Cash on Hand
$4,254,673
Disbursements
$3,677,476
Individual Contributions
$4,510,992
PAC Contributions
$616,977
Small Dollar %
35.4%
Burn Rate
47.9%
Net IE Advantage
+$11.8M
El-Sayed (D)
Total Raised
$7,646,728
Cash on Hand
$2,529,327
Disbursements
$5,117,401
Individual Contributions
$7,572,496
PAC Contributions
$38,825
Small Dollar %
26.4%
Burn Rate
66.9%
Net IE Advantage
$-1.5M
Slotkin (D)
Total Raised
$4,378,579
Cash on Hand
$2,364,966
Disbursements
$2,296,328
Individual Contributions
$4,146,863
PAC Contributions
$13,000
Small Dollar %
63.0%
Burn Rate
52.4%
Net IE Advantage
+$111K
Tate (D)
Total Raised
$243,636
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$243,636
Individual Contributions
$222,028
PAC Contributions
$6,250
Small Dollar %
23.7%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Scott (R)
🌐 Website 𝕏 @prior_SenRickScott
Total Raised
$76,084
Cash on Hand
$6,555
Disbursements
$69,529
Individual Contributions
$27,415
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
9.5%
Burn Rate
91.4%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Smith (R)
Total Raised
$53,804
Cash on Hand
$1,305
Disbursements
$52,500
Individual Contributions
$53,648
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
11.8%
Burn Rate
97.6%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — Michigan
Partisan Lean R+2
↘ Trending R+6

MI has a partisan lean of R+2. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 6 points in recent elections. Democrats won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin D+11).

Presidential Results
2020 D+2.8
2016 R+0.2
2012 D+9.5
2008 D+16.4
2004 D+3.4
Senate Results
2020 D+1.7
2018 D+6.5
2014 D+13.3
2012 D+20.8