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Senate · Michigan · General Election

Michigan Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: August 4, 2026
C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up
Last updated: Apr 17, 2026 04:41 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$23.5M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$4.1M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$36.3M
46 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe D
Signal Alignment DEM at 100%
Data Signals
Money
DEM
DEM $2.5M / REP $0.0M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
EVEN
Toss-Up (unanimous) — Cook: Toss-Up / Sabato: Toss-Up / Inside: Toss-Up
📈 Slotkin: Net IE: +111K
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC
Supporting Rogers
$2.2M
SLF PAC
Supporting Rogers
$857K
THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND
Supporting Rogers
$469K
GLCF, INC.
Supporting Rogers
$315K
FIRST PRINCIPLES DIGITAL
Supporting Rogers
$184K
BLUE MICHIGAN PAC
Supporting Stevens
$84K
BLUE MAJORITY PROJECT
Supporting Stevens
$29K
DEMOCRATIC FUTURE PAC
Supporting Stevens
$6K
DMFI PAC
Supporting Stevens
$3K
BLUE DEMOCRACY NETWORK
Supporting Stevens
$2K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
82%
DEM Price
→ -2.9% 7d
18%
REP Price
→ +9.1% 7d
$103K
Total Volume
24h: $405
0.3%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +1.2% 30d REP: -2.7%
DEM 82% 85%83%81% Mar 16Mar 25Apr 16
REP 18% 18%18%16% Mar 16Mar 31Apr 16
Spread: 3.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Normal
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $9.7M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $36.3M in campaign spending in this race.
46
Corporate Clients
$9.7M
Lobbying Spend
$36.3M
Campaign Spending
173
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 🤖 Tech & AI 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 🏭
$2.6M
$2.2M
Rogers
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$2.2M
$2.2M
Rogers
BLUE CROSS BLUE SHIELD OF MICHIGAN 💰 🏥 🛡️
$1.1M
$84K
STEVENS
NOTARIZE, INC. DBA PROOF.COM 🤖 🛡️ 💰
$490K
$2.2M
Rogers
SENTINEL MIDSTREAM, LLC 🏭 ⚡
$270K
$469K
Rogers
PEOPLE TEC 🤖 🛡️
$240K
$50
MCMORROW
ZESTFINANCE, INC. DBA ZEST AI 💰
$240K
$2.2M
Rogers
CHATTEM, INC. DBA OPELLA 🏥 🏭
$220K
$2.2M
Rogers
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Slotkin (DEM) Top employer groups (5 also lobby Congress)
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY
$8K (121)
ALLIANCE FOR AUTOMOTIVE INNOVATION LOBBY+DONATE
$6K (5)
APOLLO
$5K (2)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$5K (2)
WOODLAND FOODS
$5K (2)
JACKSON & MACNICHOL
$4K (3)
CITY ALUMINUM FOUNDRY
$4K (5)
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
$4K (88)
AVERI
$4K (1)
HONIGMAN
$4K (1)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$55.6B
Total Awards
44%
Defense ($2.9B)
9,962,311
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Military Armored Vehicle, Tank · $2.5B Automobile Manufacturing · $2.4B Motor Vehicle Transmission and · $312.9M Engineering Services · $258.2M Light Truck and Utility Vehicl · $252.4M Other Heavy and Civil Engineer · $247.1M
Recipient Amount
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN
$33.6B
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
$3.1B
TRANSPORTATION, MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF
$2.4B
GENERAL DYNAMICS LAND SYSTEMS INC.
$2.1B
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND ECONOMI
$2.0B
BAE SYSTEMS LAND AND ARMAMENTS L.P.
$1.3B
FCA US LLC
$1.3B
REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
$1.3B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Stevens (D)
—
$6.8M
$3.1M
14%
55%
$124K
—
Mcmorrow (D)
—
$5.6M
$2.0M
48%
65%
$50
—
Rogers (R)
—
$5.4M
$3.5M
34%
41%
$4.0M
$2K
El-Sayed (D)
—
$5.4M
$2.0M
26%
63%
$50
—
Tate (D)
—
$244K
—
24%
100%
—
—
Scott (R)
—
$76K
$7K
10%
91%
—
—
Financial Breakdown
Stevens (D)
Total Raised
$6,839,672
Cash on Hand
$3,066,294
Disbursements
$3,773,379
Individual Contributions
$4,741,804
PAC Contributions
$410,556
Small Dollar %
14.5%
Burn Rate
55.2%
Net IE Advantage
+$124K
Mcmorrow (D)
Total Raised
$5,595,106
Cash on Hand
$1,951,147
Disbursements
$3,643,959
Individual Contributions
$5,521,946
PAC Contributions
$34,149
Small Dollar %
48.5%
Burn Rate
65.1%
Net IE Advantage
+$50
Rogers (R)
Total Raised
$5,382,858
Cash on Hand
$3,454,035
Disbursements
$2,183,554
Individual Contributions
$2,821,443
PAC Contributions
$516,477
Small Dollar %
34.3%
Burn Rate
40.6%
Net IE Advantage
+$4.0M
El-Sayed (D)
Total Raised
$5,350,824
Cash on Hand
$1,979,180
Disbursements
$3,371,645
Individual Contributions
$5,298,365
PAC Contributions
$31,825
Small Dollar %
26.5%
Burn Rate
63.0%
Net IE Advantage
+$50
Tate (D)
Total Raised
$243,636
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$243,636
Individual Contributions
$222,028
PAC Contributions
$6,250
Small Dollar %
23.7%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Scott (R)
🌐 Website 𝕏 @prior_SenRickScott
Total Raised
$76,084
Cash on Hand
$6,555
Disbursements
$69,529
Individual Contributions
$27,415
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
9.5%
Burn Rate
91.4%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — Michigan
Partisan Lean R+2
↘ Trending R+6

MI has a partisan lean of R+2. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 6 points in recent elections. Democrats won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin D+11).

Presidential Results
2020 D+2.8
2016 R+0.2
2012 D+9.5
2008 D+16.4
2004 D+3.4
Senate Results
2020 D+1.7
2018 D+6.5
2014 D+13.3
2012 D+20.8