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Senate · Michigan · General Election

Michigan Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up
Last updated: Nov 01, 2026 06:45 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$108.0M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$3.4B
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$6.4B
109 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe D
Signal Alignment DEM at 100%
Data Signals
Money
DEM
DEM $2.5M / REP $0.0M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
EVEN
Toss-Up (unanimous) — Cook: Toss-Up / Sabato: Toss-Up / Inside: Toss-Up
📈 Slotkin: Net IE: +111K
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
SLF PAC
Opposing El-Sayed
$596.7M
UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP')
Opposing El-Sayed
$514.6M
NO GOING BACK PAC INC.
Opposing El-Sayed
$357.4M
WINSENATE
Opposing Rogers
$308.6M
GLCF, INC.
Opposing El-Sayed
$257.1M
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC
Opposing Rogers
$168.6M
WINSENATE
Opposing El-Sayed
$165.2M
GLCF, INC.
Opposing Rogers
$108.7M
A STRONGER MICHIGAN
Supporting Stevens
$100.7M
DEFEND THE VOTE
Opposing Rogers
$81.9M
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
74%
DEM Price
↓ +10.4% 7d
26%
REP Price
↑ -21.5% 7d
$6.5M
Total Volume
24h: $975K
0.8%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +2.8% 30d REP: -7.3%
DEM 74% 80%74%68% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
REP 26% 33%26%18% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: REP 55%
🔵 6 DEM whales ($157K)  ·  🔴 6 REP whales ($327K) · 4 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
toosensitive
REP
$141K
—
lastminwin
DEM
$63K
68¢ → 74¢ (+$5,116)
themagicofcinema
REP
$62K
—
aenews2
REP
$50K
—
vajrapani
DEM
$41K
82¢ → 74¢ (-$3,885)
botbot
REP
$27K
—
0x7B7ab681a573387597
REP
$24K
—
aHjCz
REP
$22K
—
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $39.1M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $6.4B in campaign spending in this race.
109
Corporate Clients
$39.1M
Lobbying Spend
$6.4B
Campaign Spending
370
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🤖 Tech & AI 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma ⚡ Energy & Utilities
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 🏭
$5.0M
$168.6M
Rogers
STATE STREET BANK AND TRUST COMPANY AND ITS AFFILIATES 🏭 💰
$3.4M
$70K
MCMORROW
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$3.3M
$168.6M
Rogers
SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION CTW-CLC 🏥 ⚡ 🏭
$2.8M
$7K
Slotkin
NATIONAL TREASURY EMPLOYEES UNION 🛡️ 🏥 💰
$2.3M
$7K
Slotkin
NATIONAL NURSES UNITED 🤖 🏥 🏭
$1.6M
$11K
Slotkin
AMERICAN NURSES ASSOCIATION 🏥 🛡️ 🤖
$1.5M
$11K
Slotkin
J STREET 🛡️ 💰 🏭
$1.4M
$70K
MCMORROW
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Slotkin (DEM) Top employer groups (5 also lobby Congress)
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY
$8K (121)
ALLIANCE FOR AUTOMOTIVE INNOVATION LOBBY+DONATE
$6K (5)
APOLLO
$5K (2)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$5K (2)
WOODLAND FOODS
$5K (2)
JACKSON & MACNICHOL
$4K (3)
CITY ALUMINUM FOUNDRY
$4K (5)
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
$4K (88)
AVERI
$4K (1)
HONIGMAN
$4K (1)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$55.6B
Total Awards
44%
Defense ($2.9B)
9,962,311
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Military Armored Vehicle, Tank · $2.5B Automobile Manufacturing · $2.4B Motor Vehicle Transmission and · $312.9M Engineering Services · $258.2M Light Truck and Utility Vehicl · $252.4M Other Heavy and Civil Engineer · $247.1M
Recipient Amount
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN
$33.6B
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
$3.1B
TRANSPORTATION, MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF
$2.4B
GENERAL DYNAMICS LAND SYSTEMS INC.
$2.1B
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND ECONOMI
$2.0B
BAE SYSTEMS LAND AND ARMAMENTS L.P.
$1.3B
FCA US LLC
$1.3B
REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
$1.3B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
El-Sayed (D)
—
$53.8M
$2.7M
41%
95%
$335.1M
$2.0B
Rogers (R)
—
$23.0M
$3.9M
24%
84%
$389.5M
$516.0M
Stevens (D)
—
$13.3M
$152K
15%
99%
$188.8M
$2.5M
Mcmorrow (D)
—
$11.4M
$414K
50%
96%
$70K
—
Slotkin (D)
—
$6.0M
$2.9M
58%
56%
$123K
$12K
Tate (D)
—
$244K
—
24%
100%
—
—
Scott (R)
—
$83K
$3K
12%
97%
—
—
Smith (R)
—
$77K
$4K
13%
95%
—
—
Financial Breakdown
El-Sayed (D)
Total Raised
$53,830,872
Cash on Hand
$2,734,029
Disbursements
$51,096,843
Individual Contributions
$47,199,665
PAC Contributions
$404,658
Small Dollar %
40.8%
Burn Rate
94.9%
Net IE Advantage
$-1.7B
Rogers (R)
Total Raised
$23,016,439
Cash on Hand
$3,902,506
Disbursements
$19,369,637
Individual Contributions
$15,432,313
PAC Contributions
$1,290,277
Small Dollar %
24.1%
Burn Rate
84.2%
Net IE Advantage
$-126.5M
Stevens (D)
Total Raised
$13,304,162
Cash on Hand
$152,338
Disbursements
$13,151,823
Individual Contributions
$10,497,818
PAC Contributions
$819,736
Small Dollar %
15.2%
Burn Rate
98.9%
Net IE Advantage
+$186.3M
Mcmorrow (D)
Total Raised
$11,405,912
Cash on Hand
$413,585
Disbursements
$10,992,326
Individual Contributions
$11,146,715
PAC Contributions
$64,484
Small Dollar %
49.8%
Burn Rate
96.4%
Net IE Advantage
+$70K
Slotkin (D)
Total Raised
$6,023,063
Cash on Hand
$2,938,227
Disbursements
$3,367,551
Individual Contributions
$5,645,889
PAC Contributions
$37,500
Small Dollar %
58.5%
Burn Rate
55.9%
Net IE Advantage
+$111K
Tate (D)
Total Raised
$243,636
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$243,636
Individual Contributions
$222,028
PAC Contributions
$6,250
Small Dollar %
23.7%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Scott (R)
🌐 Website 𝕏 @prior_SenRickScott
Total Raised
$83,079
Cash on Hand
$2,539
Disbursements
$80,541
Individual Contributions
$34,410
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
11.6%
Burn Rate
96.9%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Smith (R)
Total Raised
$77,255
Cash on Hand
$3,796
Disbursements
$73,459
Individual Contributions
$77,099
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
13.0%
Burn Rate
95.1%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — Michigan
Partisan Lean R+2
↘ Trending R+6

MI has a partisan lean of R+2. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 6 points in recent elections. Democrats won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin D+11).

Presidential Results
2020 D+2.8
2016 R+0.2
2012 D+9.5
2008 D+16.4
2004 D+3.4
Senate Results
2020 D+1.7
2018 D+6.5
2014 D+13.3
2012 D+20.8