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Senate · Michigan · General Election

Michigan Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up
Last updated: Aug 14, 2026 12:04 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$54.3M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$166.5M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$593.8M
111 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe D
Signal Alignment DEM at 100%
Data Signals
Money
DEM
DEM $2.5M / REP $0.0M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
EVEN
Toss-Up (unanimous) — Cook: Toss-Up / Sabato: Toss-Up / Inside: Toss-Up
📈 Slotkin: Net IE: +111K
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP')
Opposing El-Sayed
$40.3M
A STRONGER MICHIGAN
Supporting Stevens
$34.3M
UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP')
Supporting Stevens
$21.0M
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC
Supporting Rogers
$18.0M
GLCF, INC.
Supporting Rogers
$10.9M
UNITE TO WIN
Supporting Stevens
$8.0M
THE SENTINEL ACTION FUND
Supporting Rogers
$7.0M
CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE
Supporting Stevens
$4.0M
FIGHTING FOR MICHIGAN PAC
Opposing El-Sayed
$3.9M
SLF PAC
Supporting Rogers
$3.6M
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: REP 53%
🔵 7 DEM whales ($26K)  ·  🔴 7 REP whales ($26K) · 3 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
Do-Not-Redeem
DEM
$6K
40¢ → 57¢ (+$2,362)
lug
REP
$6K
58¢ → 44¢ (-$1,399)
.chumpo
REP
$4K
59¢ → 44¢ (-$1,199)
smoovster
REP
$4K
40¢ → 44¢ (+$400)
aff3
DEM
$4K
61¢ → 57¢ (-$280)
banspcltvecnmy
DEM
$4K
67¢ → 57¢ (-$630)
apmt
DEM
$4K
61¢ → 57¢ (-$229)
0x77266604E63f5cAF08
DEM
$3K
59¢ → 57¢ (-$135)
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $37.1M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $593.8M in campaign spending in this race.
111
Corporate Clients
$37.1M
Lobbying Spend
$593.8M
Campaign Spending
362
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🤖 Tech & AI 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma ⚡ Energy & Utilities
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 ⚡
$4.0M
$18.0M
Rogers
STATE STREET BANK AND TRUST COMPANY AND ITS AFFILIATES 🏭 💰
$3.4M
$50K
MCMORROW
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$3.3M
$18.0M
Rogers
SERVICE EMPLOYEES INTERNATIONAL UNION CTW-CLC 🏥 ⚡ 🏭
$2.8M
$7K
Slotkin
NATIONAL TREASURY EMPLOYEES UNION 🏥 🛡️ 💰
$1.9M
$7K
Slotkin
NATIONAL NURSES UNITED 🤖 🏥 🏭
$1.5M
$2.0M
EL-SAYED
AMERICAN NURSES ASSOCIATION 🏥 🤖 🛡️
$1.5M
$2.0M
EL-SAYED
J STREET 💰 🛡️ 🏭
$1.3M
$50K
MCMORROW
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Slotkin (DEM) Top employer groups (5 also lobby Congress)
MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY
$8K (121)
ALLIANCE FOR AUTOMOTIVE INNOVATION LOBBY+DONATE
$6K (5)
APOLLO
$5K (2)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$5K (2)
WOODLAND FOODS
$5K (2)
JACKSON & MACNICHOL
$4K (3)
CITY ALUMINUM FOUNDRY
$4K (5)
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
$4K (88)
AVERI
$4K (1)
HONIGMAN
$4K (1)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$55.6B
Total Awards
44%
Defense ($2.9B)
9,962,311
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Military Armored Vehicle, Tank · $2.5B Automobile Manufacturing · $2.4B Motor Vehicle Transmission and · $312.9M Engineering Services · $258.2M Light Truck and Utility Vehicl · $252.4M Other Heavy and Civil Engineer · $247.1M
Recipient Amount
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN
$33.6B
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
$3.1B
TRANSPORTATION, MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF
$2.4B
GENERAL DYNAMICS LAND SYSTEMS INC.
$2.1B
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND ECONOMI
$2.0B
BAE SYSTEMS LAND AND ARMAMENTS L.P.
$1.3B
FCA US LLC
$1.3B
REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
$1.3B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
El-Sayed (D)
—
$14.5M
$2.6M
29%
82%
$9.2M
$40.6M
Stevens (D)
—
$11.9M
$2.8M
14%
76%
$69.8M
$2.2M
Mcmorrow (D)
—
$11.4M
$1.9M
50%
84%
$50K
—
Rogers (R)
—
$10.9M
$4.5M
32%
61%
$41.6M
$3.0M
Slotkin (D)
—
$5.2M
$2.7M
60%
55%
$123K
$12K
Tate (D)
—
$244K
—
24%
100%
—
—
Scott (R)
—
$83K
$3K
12%
97%
—
—
Smith (R)
—
$77K
$4K
13%
95%
—
—
Financial Breakdown
El-Sayed (D)
Total Raised
$14,528,336
Cash on Hand
$2,552,763
Disbursements
$11,975,573
Individual Contributions
$14,408,058
PAC Contributions
$71,845
Small Dollar %
28.8%
Burn Rate
82.4%
Net IE Advantage
$-31.4M
Stevens (D)
Total Raised
$11,884,632
Cash on Hand
$2,793,294
Disbursements
$9,091,338
Individual Contributions
$9,216,540
PAC Contributions
$708,306
Small Dollar %
14.0%
Burn Rate
76.5%
Net IE Advantage
+$67.7M
Mcmorrow (D)
Total Raised
$11,386,720
Cash on Hand
$1,867,631
Disbursements
$9,519,089
Individual Contributions
$11,146,705
PAC Contributions
$64,484
Small Dollar %
49.8%
Burn Rate
83.6%
Net IE Advantage
+$50K
Rogers (R)
Total Raised
$10,898,177
Cash on Hand
$4,473,237
Disbursements
$6,680,643
Individual Contributions
$6,831,819
PAC Contributions
$787,227
Small Dollar %
32.5%
Burn Rate
61.3%
Net IE Advantage
+$38.6M
Slotkin (D)
Total Raised
$5,242,247
Cash on Hand
$2,662,580
Disbursements
$2,862,383
Individual Contributions
$4,939,281
PAC Contributions
$29,000
Small Dollar %
60.4%
Burn Rate
54.6%
Net IE Advantage
+$111K
Tate (D)
Total Raised
$243,636
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$243,636
Individual Contributions
$222,028
PAC Contributions
$6,250
Small Dollar %
23.7%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Scott (R)
🌐 Website 𝕏 @prior_SenRickScott
Total Raised
$83,079
Cash on Hand
$2,539
Disbursements
$80,541
Individual Contributions
$34,410
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
11.6%
Burn Rate
96.9%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Smith (R)
Total Raised
$77,240
Cash on Hand
$4,067
Disbursements
$73,173
Individual Contributions
$77,084
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
12.9%
Burn Rate
94.7%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — Michigan
Partisan Lean R+2
↘ Trending R+6

MI has a partisan lean of R+2. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 6 points in recent elections. Democrats won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin D+11).

Presidential Results
2020 D+2.8
2016 R+0.2
2012 D+9.5
2008 D+16.4
2004 D+3.4
Senate Results
2020 D+1.7
2018 D+6.5
2014 D+13.3
2012 D+20.8