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Senate · Minnesota · General Election

Minnesota Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Likely D S: Likely D S: Likely D
Last updated: Nov 01, 2026 06:45 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$40.3M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$96.6M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$193.9M
36 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Toss-Up
Signal Alignment INSUFFICIENT DATA at 0%
Data Signals
📈 Craig: Net IE: +1.2M
📈 Flanagan: Net IE: +54K
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
NORTH STAR DAWN PAC
Supporting Craig
$34.1M
NORTH STAR DAWN PAC
Opposing Flanagan
$27.0M
Supporting Craig
$8.0M
MINNESOTA FORWARD
Opposing Flanagan
$6.1M
Supporting Craig
$4.9M
UNITE TO WIN
Opposing Flanagan
$4.0M
MINNESOTANS FOR PROGRESS PAC
Supporting Craig
$3.6M
Opposing Flanagan
$2.9M
AB PAC
Opposing Flanagan
$2.8M
SHEEPDOG PAC
Opposing Tafoya
$889K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
94%
DEM Price
→ +9.4% 7d
7%
REP Price
→ -53.3% 7d
$747K
Total Volume
24h: $123K
0.3%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +4.5% 30d REP: -33.3%
DEM 94% 94%90%86% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
REP 7% 15%11%7% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $16.5M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $193.9M in campaign spending in this race.
36
Corporate Clients
$16.5M
Lobbying Spend
$193.9M
Campaign Spending
143
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing ⚡ Energy & Utilities
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
BP AMERICA INC. ⚡ 🏭 🛡️
$8.9M
$101K
TAFOYA
BAJO COHEN AGLIANO, P.A. ON BEHALF OF HEALTH EDGE INVESTMENT PARTNERS, LLC
$1.1M
$175K
TAFOYA
KEEPING AMERICAS EDGE 🏥
$710K
$175K
TAFOYA
CJ AMERICA, INC.
$590K
$101K
TAFOYA
NORTH STAR SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION 🛡️ 🤖
$480K
$34.1M
CRAIG
CLEAR 🛡️
$450K
$220K
CRAIG
LEAR CORPORATION 🏭
$430K
$220K
CRAIG
EDGE AUTONOMY 🤖
$400K
$175K
TAFOYA
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
CRAIG (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)
COINBASE
$49K (16)
HEARTLAND REALTY INVESTORS
$29K (9)
FAEGRE DRINKER BIDDLE & REATH
$22K (25)
BLACKSTONE
$19K (6)
GARDNER BUILDERS
$18K (4)
JANE STREET CAPITAL
$18K (5)
NEUBERGER BERMAN
$17K (5)
CAPITAL GROUP COMPANIES
$16K (5)
UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA
$15K (24)
KALSHI
$15K (6)
FLANAGAN (DEMOCRATIC-FARMER-LABOR) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA
$11K (46)
NVIDIA LOBBY+DONATE
$10K (3)
GOOGLE
$10K (3)
THE ANGLE
$7K (3)
UCSF
$7K (2)
ICSI
$7K (2)
RMS
$7K (2)
PHILO
$7K (2)
SCHOONER CAPITAL
$7K (2)
SONOSKY CHAMBERS ET AL
$7K (2)
SCHWARZE (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups
AMP
$13K (13)
FELTL & CO
$11K (8)
TECH FREIGHT
$8K (6)
GRESSER COMPANIES
$7K (3)
GLOBAL INITIATIVES
$7K (2)
TIGERRISK PARTNERS
$7K (5)
FELTL CO
$7K (3)
DE GROOTE FINANICAL GROUP
$7K (6)
OMNETICS CONNECTOR
$4K (12)
SUMMIT COMPANIES
$4K (2)
WHITE (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups
SDG
$3K (12)
BFS
$2K (11)
MEDTRONIC
$2K (5)
FLAG CITY
$1K (6)
MAREX
$1K (11)
ROCK-CRETE
$1K (12)
LUCID SOLUTIONS
$1K (1)
AFLAC
$1K (11)
ISLAND PEDIATRICS,PC
$950 (28)
EYESIGHT ASSOCIATES
$736 (11)
LOPEZ FRANZEN (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups
TROUTMAN PEPPER HAMILTON SANDERS
$14K (4)
TROUTMAN PEPPER LOCKE
$8K (3)
NATIONAL GRID RENEWABLES
$7K (7)
TAWANI ENTERPRISES
$7K (2)
NEWPUBLICA
$4K (2)
PATRIOT WAVES MARINE
$4K (1)
HEMPEL REAL ESTATE
$4K (1)
GREAT NORTH OIL
$4K (1)
AAC
$4K (1)
ABRAHAM WATKINS LAW FIRM
$4K (1)
WEILER (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)
ALEXANDRIA CLINIC
$1K (1)
IMA
$500 (1)
DELOITTE
$250 (1)
BACHMAN'S
$250 (1)
MICROSOFT LOBBY+DONATE
$100 (1)
PARENT CUSTOM HOMES
$100 (1)
RYAN COMPANIES
$100 (1)
MHM HEALTHCARE
$100 (1)
BAY PINES VA MEDICAL CENTER
$100 (1)
LOYOLA MEDICAL CENTER
$50 (1)
🔀 3 SPLIT DONORS — Employers whose staff donate to both sides
UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA: CRAIG $15,300 / FLANAGAN $11,089 / LOPEZ FRANZEN $1,500. DORSEY & WHITNEY: CRAIG $11,605 / FLANAGAN $4,200. TAWANI ENTERPRISES: FLANAGAN $7,000 / LOPEZ FRANZEN $7,000.
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$111.2B
Total Awards
4%
Defense ($66.6M)
5,576,606
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Ammunition (except Small Arms) · $552.8M Small Arms Ammunition Manufact · $211.3M Cheese Manufacturing · $190.6M Commercial and Institutional B · $166.1M Electromedical and Electrother · $163.4M All Other Miscellaneous Fabric · $110.7M
Recipient Amount
MINNESOTA DEPARTMENT OF HUMAN SERVICES
$19.8B
MINNESOTA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
$1.6B
MINNESOTA DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
$1.4B
NORTHROP GRUMMAN SYSTEMS CORPORATION
$816.9M
GREAT RIVER ENERGY
$794.4M
STATE OF MINNESOTA OF EMPLOYMENT & ECONO
$789.6M
REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA
$690.7M
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MINNESOTA
$554.1M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Craig (D)
—
$13.4M
$148K
21%
99%
$42.6M
$8.2M
Tafoya (R)
—
$12.5M
$2.8M
47%
78%
$87K
$1.5M
Flanagan (D)
—
$11.6M
$993K
42%
91%
$7.2M
$36.5M
Schwarze (R)
—
$1.5M
$8K
27%
100%
$446K
—
White (R)
—
$735K
$28K
55%
115%
—
—
Lopez Franzen (D)
—
$299K
—
14%
100%
—
—
Weiler (R)
—
$221K
$88K
3%
61%
—
—
Hann (R)
—
$133K
—
6%
100%
—
—
Financial Breakdown
Craig (D)
Total Raised
$13,380,880
Cash on Hand
$148,433
Disbursements
$13,232,448
Individual Contributions
$11,055,387
PAC Contributions
$811,158
Small Dollar %
21.3%
Burn Rate
98.9%
Net IE Advantage
+$34.4M
Tafoya (R)
Total Raised
$12,501,786
Cash on Hand
$2,819,387
Disbursements
$9,682,730
Individual Contributions
$11,087,328
PAC Contributions
$334,251
Small Dollar %
47.4%
Burn Rate
77.5%
Net IE Advantage
$-1.4M
Flanagan (D)
Total Raised
$11,563,963
Cash on Hand
$993,214
Disbursements
$10,570,749
Individual Contributions
$10,629,226
PAC Contributions
$536,181
Small Dollar %
42.1%
Burn Rate
91.4%
Net IE Advantage
$-29.3M
Schwarze (R)
Total Raised
$1,502,705
Cash on Hand
$7,717
Disbursements
$1,494,988
Individual Contributions
$1,303,889
PAC Contributions
$59,293
Small Dollar %
26.9%
Burn Rate
99.5%
Net IE Advantage
+$446K
White (R)
Total Raised
$734,725
Cash on Hand
$27,625
Disbursements
$846,209
Individual Contributions
$671,751
PAC Contributions
$25
Small Dollar %
54.7%
Burn Rate
115.2%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Lopez Franzen (D)
Total Raised
$299,376
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$299,376
Individual Contributions
$191,139
PAC Contributions
$5,000
Small Dollar %
13.8%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Weiler (R)
Total Raised
$220,904
Cash on Hand
$87,904
Disbursements
$134,760
Individual Contributions
$39,901
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
3.3%
Burn Rate
61.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Hann (R)
Total Raised
$133,465
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$133,465
Individual Contributions
$133,286
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
6.2%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0