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Senate · Minnesota · General Election

Minnesota Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: August 11, 2026

C: Likely D S: Likely D S: Likely D

Last updated: Jul 01, 2026 12:51 AM

Poll Leader

No polls

0 candidates polled

Total Money in Race

$17.9M

Combined fundraising

Outside Spending

$10.5M

Independent expenditures

🧠 Race Intelligence

Toss-Up

Signal Alignment INSUFFICIENT DATA at 0%

Data Signals

📈 Craig: Net IE: +1.2M

📈 Flanagan: Net IE: +54K

🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race

Committee

Direction

Amount

NORTH STAR DAWN PAC

Supporting Craig

$3.6M

NORTH STAR DAWN PAC

Opposing Flanagan

$2.8M

CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE

Supporting Craig

$1.9M

UNITE TO WIN

Opposing Flanagan

$1.0M

DLGA

Supporting Craig

$930K

CLEAR VOICE MINNESOTA

Supporting Craig

$217K

CLEAR VOICE MINNESOTA

Opposing Flanagan

$108K

BLUE MAJORITY PROJECT

Supporting Craig

$51K

INDIVISIBLE PROJECT INC.

Opposing Flanagan

$1K

📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket

94%

DEM Price

→ +1.1% 7d

REP Price

→ +6.3% 7d

$31K

Total Volume

24h: $60

0.1%

Volatility

Low

30d DEM: +5.1% 30d REP: -26.1%

Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight

🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A

Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.

CRAIG (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)

COINBASE

$49K (16)

HEARTLAND REALTY INVESTORS

$29K (9)

FAEGRE DRINKER BIDDLE & REATH

$22K (25)

BLACKSTONE

$19K (6)

GARDNER BUILDERS

$18K (4)

JANE STREET CAPITAL

$18K (5)

NEUBERGER BERMAN

$17K (5)

CAPITAL GROUP COMPANIES

$16K (5)

UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

$15K (24)

KALSHI

$15K (6)

FLANAGAN (DEMOCRATIC-FARMER-LABOR) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)

UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

$11K (46)

NVIDIA LOBBY+DONATE

$10K (3)

GOOGLE

$10K (3)

THE ANGLE

$7K (3)

UCSF

$7K (2)

ICSI

$7K (2)

RMS

$7K (2)

PHILO

$7K (2)

SCHOONER CAPITAL

$7K (2)

SONOSKY CHAMBERS ET AL

$7K (2)

SCHWARZE (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups

AMP

$13K (13)

FELTL & CO

$11K (8)

TECH FREIGHT

$8K (6)

GRESSER COMPANIES

$7K (3)

GLOBAL INITIATIVES

$7K (2)

TIGERRISK PARTNERS

$7K (5)

FELTL CO

$7K (3)

DE GROOTE FINANICAL GROUP

$7K (6)

OMNETICS CONNECTOR

$4K (12)

SUMMIT COMPANIES

$4K (2)

WHITE (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups

SDG

$3K (12)

BFS

$2K (11)

MEDTRONIC

$2K (5)

FLAG CITY

$1K (6)

MAREX

$1K (11)

ROCK-CRETE

$1K (12)

LUCID SOLUTIONS

$1K (1)

AFLAC

$1K (11)

ISLAND PEDIATRICS,PC

$950 (28)

EYESIGHT ASSOCIATES

$736 (11)

LOPEZ FRANZEN (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups

TROUTMAN PEPPER HAMILTON SANDERS

$14K (4)

TROUTMAN PEPPER LOCKE

$8K (3)

NATIONAL GRID RENEWABLES

$7K (7)

TAWANI ENTERPRISES

$7K (2)

NEWPUBLICA

$4K (2)

PATRIOT WAVES MARINE

$4K (1)

HEMPEL REAL ESTATE

$4K (1)

GREAT NORTH OIL

$4K (1)

AAC

$4K (1)

ABRAHAM WATKINS LAW FIRM

$4K (1)

WEILER (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)

ALEXANDRIA CLINIC

$1K (1)

IMA

$500 (1)

DELOITTE

$250 (1)

BACHMAN'S

$250 (1)

MICROSOFT LOBBY+DONATE

$100 (1)

PARENT CUSTOM HOMES

$100 (1)

RYAN COMPANIES

$100 (1)

MHM HEALTHCARE

$100 (1)

BAY PINES VA MEDICAL CENTER

$100 (1)

LOYOLA MEDICAL CENTER

$50 (1)

🔀 3 SPLIT DONORS — Employers whose staff donate to both sides
UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA: CRAIG $15,300 / FLANAGAN $11,089 / LOPEZ FRANZEN $1,500. DORSEY & WHITNEY: CRAIG $11,605 / FLANAGAN $4,200. TAWANI ENTERPRISES: FLANAGAN $7,000 / LOPEZ FRANZEN $7,000.

Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence

Federal Spending Context (statewide)

Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov

$111.2B

Total Awards

Defense ($66.6M)

5,576,606

Population

Top Industries & Recipients ▾

Ammunition (except Small Arms) · $552.8M Small Arms Ammunition Manufact · $211.3M Cheese Manufacturing · $190.6M Commercial and Institutional B · $166.1M Electromedical and Electrother · $163.4M All Other Miscellaneous Fabric · $110.7M

Recipient Amount

MINNESOTA DEPARTMENT OF HUMAN SERVICES

$19.8B

MINNESOTA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

$1.6B

MINNESOTA DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION

$1.4B

NORTHROP GRUMMAN SYSTEMS CORPORATION

$816.9M

GREAT RIVER ENERGY

$794.4M

STATE OF MINNESOTA OF EMPLOYMENT & ECONO

$789.6M

REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

$690.7M

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MINNESOTA

$554.1M

Candidate Comparison

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

Burn

IE For

IE Agst

Craig (D)

—

$9.3M

$4.9M

20%

47%

$5.5M

$1.1M

Flanagan (D)

—

$4.6M

$1.1M

50%

75%

$110K

$3.8M

Tafoya (R)

—

$2.0M

$1.9M

47%

—

Schwarze (R)

—

$1.1M

$223K

27%

80%

—

White (R)

—

$566K

$83K

54%

110%

—

Lopez Franzen (D)

—

$299K

—

14%

100%

—

Hann (R)

—

Weiler (R)

—

Financial Breakdown

Craig (D)

Total Raised

$9,290,612

Cash on Hand

$4,895,313

Disbursements

$4,395,299

Individual Contributions

$7,242,492

PAC Contributions

$622,835

Small Dollar %

19.6%

Burn Rate

47.3%

Net IE Advantage

+$4.4M

Flanagan (D)

Total Raised

$4,646,309

Cash on Hand

$1,144,010

Disbursements

$3,502,299

Individual Contributions

$4,481,746

PAC Contributions

$129,917

Small Dollar %

49.8%

Burn Rate

75.4%

Net IE Advantage

$-3.7M

Tafoya (R)

Total Raised

$2,041,940

Cash on Hand

$1,854,967

Disbursements

$186,972

Individual Contributions

$1,758,376

PAC Contributions

$95,000

Small Dollar %

46.6%

Burn Rate

9.2%

Net IE Advantage

Schwarze (R)

Total Raised

$1,102,851

Cash on Hand

$223,428

Disbursements

$879,423

Individual Contributions

$1,018,870

PAC Contributions

$30,309

Small Dollar %

26.6%

Burn Rate

79.7%

Net IE Advantage

White (R)

Total Raised

$565,894

Cash on Hand

$82,804

Disbursements

$622,199

Individual Contributions

$536,468

PAC Contributions

Small Dollar %

53.5%

Burn Rate

109.9%

Net IE Advantage

Lopez Franzen (D)

Total Raised

$299,376

Cash on Hand

Disbursements

$299,376

Individual Contributions

$191,139

PAC Contributions

$5,000

Small Dollar %

13.8%

Burn Rate

100.0%

Net IE Advantage