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Senate · North Carolina · General Election

North Carolina Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up
Last updated: Nov 01, 2026 06:45 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$64.1M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$564.0M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$1.5B
103 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe D
Signal Alignment DEM at 100%
Data Signals
Polls
DEM
Cooper +8.5
Money
DEM
DEM $21.1M / REP $10.1M (raised + IE)
Voter Registration
DEM
D+82,000 (1.1%) (GOP gaining 197,000 registration edge since 2022-11)
Expert Ratings
EVEN
Toss-Up (unanimous) — Cook: Toss-Up / Sabato: Toss-Up / Inside: Toss-Up
📉 Cooper: Net IE: -666K
📈 Whatley: Net IE: +3.8M
📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 197,000 registration edge since 2022-11
🔄 Market signal: Polls show Cooper at 54% implied, but Polymarket prices at 80%. Markets see something polls don't.
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
Opposing Cooper
$243.8M
WINSENATE
Opposing Whatley
$121.1M
NO GOING BACK PAC INC.
Opposing Cooper
$70.8M
NC FIRST PAC
Opposing Cooper
$9.6M
PLANNED PARENTHOOD VOTES NORTH CAROLINA
Opposing Cooper
$8.9M
NO GOING BACK PAC INC.
Opposing Whatley
$5.3M
Opposing Whatley
$5.2M
EDF ACTION VOTES
Opposing Whatley
$2.0M
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
98%
DEM Price
→ +0.6% 7d
2%
REP Price
→ -11.1% 7d
$334K
Total Volume
24h: $22K
0.1%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +2.3% 30d REP: -46.7%
DEM 98% 98%97%96% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
REP 2% 4%3%2% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
Spread: 0.2% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: DEM 51%
🔵 6 DEM whales ($35K)  ·  🔴 6 REP whales ($8K) · 4 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
Vilgefortz
DEM
$9K
—
SirHarryOakes
DEM
$8K
—
FDTpuissance
DEM
$5K
—
Gaditima
DEM
$5K
—
BuddhaYTorrance
REP
$5K
96¢ → 2¢ (-$4,714)
JerryFloyd
DEM
$4K
—
sherrone-more
DEM
$4K
—
donthackme
REP
$3K
—
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $43.7M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $1.5B in campaign spending in this race.
103
Corporate Clients
$43.7M
Lobbying Spend
$1.5B
Campaign Spending
379
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing 💰 Finance & Banking
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
BP AMERICA INC. ⚡ 🏭 🛡️
$8.9M
$10K
BROWN
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 🏭
$5.0M
$29.6M
COOPER
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$3.3M
$29.6M
COOPER
FIRST SOLAR INC 🏭 ⚡ 🛡️
$3.2M
$9.6M
COOPER
OLIN CORPORATION 🏭 🛡️ 🏥
$2.3M
$8.9M
COOPER
PLANNED PARENTHOOD FEDERATION OF AMERICA, INC 🏥 🛡️ 💰
$1.9M
$8.9M
COOPER
START EARLY (FOR FIRST FIVE YEARS FUND)
$1.6M
$9.6M
COOPER
FISERV (FKA FIRST DATA CORPORATION) 🛡️ 🤖 💰
$1.5M
$9.6M
COOPER
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Cooper (DEM) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
DUKE UNIVERSITY
$128K (177)
UNC CHAPEL HILL
$54K (59)
KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK
$40K (13)
STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA
$35K (49)
LIEFF CABRASER HEIMANN & BERNSTEIN
$32K (20)
WILMERHALE
$31K (23)
STRATA CLEAN ENERGY
$28K (8)
SCOPELY
$28K (8)
CULP ELLIOTT & CARPENTER PLLC
$28K (8)
PRINCE MASSAGEE & ALEXANDER, PLLC
$28K (8)
Whatley (GOP) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)
MILLER STRATEGIES
$40K (16)
ENTREPRENEUR
$37K (44)
SOUTH CREEK CONSTRUCTION
$21K (6)
PFG PITTS FAMILY GROUP
$21K (6)
VENTURE GLOBAL LNG
$21K (6)
DELTA MOTELS
$21K (6)
TRAVELERS
$21K (6)
BYRIDER
$21K (6)
S & V FARM
$21K (6)
VILLAGE GREEN
$21K (6)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$53.4B
Total Awards
21%
Defense ($1.2B)
10,273,419
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Other Waste Collection · $2.0B Engineering Services · $558.8M Commercial and Institutional B · $547.7M Computer Systems Design Servic · $547.0M Administrative Management and · $477.9M Research and Development in th · $329.6M
Recipient Amount
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HU
$43.4B
TRANSPORTATION NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT
$3.3B
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC INST
$3.1B
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFE
$1.6B
DEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
$1.5B
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NORTH CAROLINA
$1.5B
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT
$1.3B
DUKE UNIVERSITY
$820.6M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Cooper (D)
—
$49.6M
$9.1M
33%
82%
$32.8M
$353.8M
Whatley (R)
—
$13.7M
$902K
31%
93%
$48.2M
$129.2M
Nickel (D)
—
$589K
$689K
20%
217%
—
—
Brown (R)
—
$225K
—
32%
100%
$10K
—
Financial Breakdown
Total Raised
$49,585,341
Cash on Hand
$9,088,860
Disbursements
$40,496,482
Individual Contributions
$17,985,377
PAC Contributions
$931,507
Small Dollar %
33.3%
Burn Rate
81.7%
Net IE Advantage
$-321.0M
Whatley (R)
Total Raised
$13,668,468
Cash on Hand
$902,238
Disbursements
$12,766,229
Individual Contributions
$7,263,547
PAC Contributions
$970,255
Small Dollar %
31.3%
Burn Rate
93.4%
Net IE Advantage
$-81.0M
Nickel (D)
Total Raised
$588,995
Cash on Hand
$688,991
Disbursements
$1,277,986
Individual Contributions
$534,864
PAC Contributions
$41,010
Small Dollar %
19.8%
Burn Rate
217.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Brown (R)
Total Raised
$224,689
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$225,530
Individual Contributions
$211,660
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
32.4%
Burn Rate
100.4%
Net IE Advantage
+$10K
📜 Historical Context — North Carolina
Partisan Lean R+6
→ Stable

NC has a partisan lean of R+6. The state's partisan lean has been stable. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+5).

Presidential Results
2020 R+1.3
2016 R+3.6
2012 R+2.0
2008 D+0.3
2004 R+12.4
Senate Results
2020 R+1.8
2016 R+5.7
2014 R+1.5
2010 R+11.8