← Back to Elections Dashboard

Senate · North Carolina · General Election

North Carolina Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Runoff: May 12, 2026

C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up

Last updated: Apr 25, 2026 04:48 AM

Poll Leader

Cooper +6.8

2 candidates polled

Total Money in Race

Combined fundraising

Outside Spending

Independent expenditures

🧠 Race Intelligence

Safe D

Signal Alignment DEM at 100%

Data Signals

Polls

DEM

Cooper +8.5

Money

DEM

DEM $21.1M / REP $10.1M (raised + IE)

Voter Registration

DEM

D+82,000 (1.1%) (GOP gaining 197,000 registration edge since 2022-11)

Expert Ratings

EVEN

Toss-Up (unanimous) — Cook: Toss-Up / Sabato: Toss-Up / Inside: Toss-Up

📉 Cooper: Net IE: -666K

📈 Whatley: Net IE: +3.8M

📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 197,000 registration edge since 2022-11

🔄 Market signal: Polls show Cooper at 54% implied, but Polymarket prices at 80%. Markets see something polls don't.

📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket

86%

DEM Price

→ +0.6% 7d

14%

REP Price

→ -9.4% 7d

$50K

Total Volume

24h: $5

0.7%

Volatility

Low

30d DEM: +7.5% 30d REP: -25.6%

Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight

🟢

Strong Divergence

Market 26¢ above polls

🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket

Smart Money: REP 56%

🔵 4 DEM whales ($1K) · 🔴 4 REP whales ($3K) · 6 hedged wallets filtered

Trader

Side

Position

Entry → Current (P&L)

carkiller530

REP

$1K

—

gopfan2

REP

$829

—

Pondermint

DEM

$550

—

littlebird

DEM

$412

—

ItsRigg3d

REP

$256

—

CuteEmmy

DEM

$250

—

nicoco89

DEM

$243

—

influenz.eth

REP

$238

—

Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.

🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A

Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.

Cooper (DEM) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)

DUKE UNIVERSITY

$128K (177)

UNC CHAPEL HILL

$54K (59)

KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK

$40K (13)

STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA

$35K (49)

LIEFF CABRASER HEIMANN & BERNSTEIN

$32K (20)

WILMERHALE

$31K (23)

STRATA CLEAN ENERGY

$28K (8)

SCOPELY

$28K (8)

CULP ELLIOTT & CARPENTER PLLC

$28K (8)

PRINCE MASSAGEE & ALEXANDER, PLLC

$28K (8)

Whatley (GOP) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)

MILLER STRATEGIES

$40K (16)

ENTREPRENEUR

$37K (44)

SOUTH CREEK CONSTRUCTION

$21K (6)

PFG PITTS FAMILY GROUP

$21K (6)

VENTURE GLOBAL LNG

$21K (6)

DELTA MOTELS

$21K (6)

TRAVELERS

$21K (6)

BYRIDER

$21K (6)

S & V FARM

$21K (6)

VILLAGE GREEN

$21K (6)

Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence

Federal Spending Context (statewide)

Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov

$53.4B

Total Awards

21%

Defense ($1.2B)

10,273,419

Population

Top Industries & Recipients ▾

Other Waste Collection · $2.0B Engineering Services · $558.8M Commercial and Institutional B · $547.7M Computer Systems Design Servic · $547.0M Administrative Management and · $477.9M Research and Development in th · $329.6M

Recipient Amount

NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HU

$43.4B

TRANSPORTATION NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT

$3.3B

NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC INST

$3.1B

NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFE

$1.6B

DEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

$1.5B

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NORTH CAROLINA

$1.5B

NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT

$1.3B

DUKE UNIVERSITY

$820.6M

Candidate Comparison

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

Burn

IE For

IE Agst

Cooper (D)

49.0%

—

Whatley (R)

42.2%

—

📜 Historical Context — North Carolina

Partisan Lean R+6

→ Stable

NC has a partisan lean of R+6. The state's partisan lean has been stable. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+5).

Presidential Results

2020 R+1.3

2016 R+3.6

2012 R+2.0

2008 D+0.3

2004 R+12.4

Senate Results

2020 R+1.8

2016 R+5.7

2014 R+1.5

2010 R+11.8