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Senate · North Carolina · General Election

North Carolina Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Toss-Up S: Toss-Up S: Tilt D I: Toss-Up
Last updated: Jul 06, 2026 11:32 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$36.0M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$10.7M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$27.7M
19 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe D
Signal Alignment DEM at 100%
Data Signals
Polls
DEM
Cooper +8.5
Money
DEM
DEM $21.1M / REP $10.1M (raised + IE)
Voter Registration
DEM
D+82,000 (1.1%) (GOP gaining 197,000 registration edge since 2022-11)
Expert Ratings
EVEN
Toss-Up (unanimous) — Cook: Toss-Up / Sabato: Toss-Up / Inside: Toss-Up
📉 Cooper: Net IE: -666K
📈 Whatley: Net IE: +3.8M
📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 197,000 registration edge since 2022-11
🔄 Market signal: Polls show Cooper at 54% implied, but Polymarket prices at 80%. Markets see something polls don't.
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
Supporting Whatley
$1.3M
Opposing Cooper
$1.0M
Opposing Cooper
$30K
FORWARD BLUE
Opposing Cooper
$22K
CATHOLICVOTE.ORG
Opposing Cooper
$18K
DEFEND AMERICA POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE
Supporting Brown
$10K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
87%
DEM Price
+0.6% 7d
14%
REP Price
-6.9% 7d
$75K
Total Volume
24h: $3
0.1%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +1.2% 30d REP: -10.0%
DEM 87% 87%85%84% Jun 07Jun 22Jul 06
REP 14% 16%15%14% Jun 07Jun 22Jul 06
Spread: 2.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Normal
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: REP 56%
🔵 7 DEM whales ($6K)  ·  🔴 7 REP whales ($4K) · 3 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
SirHarryOakes
DEM
$3K
83¢ → 87¢ (+$116)
gopfan2
REP
$1K
63¢ → 14¢ (-$823)
Ryxon21
REP
$1K
85¢ → 14¢ (-$1,133)
OkaneKasegu
DEM
$828
83¢ → 87¢ (+$38)
Ztalic
DEM
$826
85¢ → 87¢ (+$21)
TTdes
REP
$744
84¢ → 14¢ (-$606)
littlebird
DEM
$717
81¢ → 87¢ (+$47)
nicoco89
DEM
$632
74¢ → 87¢ (+$96)
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $16.0M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $27.7M in campaign spending in this race.
19
Corporate Clients
$16.0M
Lobbying Spend
$27.7M
Campaign Spending
136
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 💰 Finance & Banking 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma ⚡ Energy & Utilities
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
BP AMERICA, INC ⚡ 🏭 🛡️
$7.3M
$10K
BROWN
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 ⚡
$3.4M
$1.7M
COOPER
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$2.7M
$1.7M
COOPER
NOTARIZE, INC. DBA PROOF.COM 🤖 🛡️ 💰
$610K
$1.7M
COOPER
CJ AMERICA, INC.
$500K
$10K
BROWN
PAYWARD, INC. DBA KRAKEN 💰
$300K
$1.7M
COOPER
CHATTEM, INC. DBA OPELLA 🏥 🏭
$290K
$1.7M
COOPER
ZESTFINANCE, INC. DBA ZEST AI 💰
$270K
$1.7M
COOPER
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Cooper (DEM) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
DUKE UNIVERSITY
$128K (177)
UNC CHAPEL HILL
$54K (59)
KESSLER TOPAZ MELTZER & CHECK
$40K (13)
STATE OF NORTH CAROLINA
$35K (49)
LIEFF CABRASER HEIMANN & BERNSTEIN
$32K (20)
WILMERHALE
$31K (23)
STRATA CLEAN ENERGY
$28K (8)
SCOPELY
$28K (8)
CULP ELLIOTT & CARPENTER PLLC
$28K (8)
PRINCE MASSAGEE & ALEXANDER, PLLC
$28K (8)
Whatley (GOP) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)
MILLER STRATEGIES
$40K (16)
ENTREPRENEUR
$37K (44)
SOUTH CREEK CONSTRUCTION
$21K (6)
PFG PITTS FAMILY GROUP
$21K (6)
VENTURE GLOBAL LNG
$21K (6)
DELTA MOTELS
$21K (6)
TRAVELERS
$21K (6)
BYRIDER
$21K (6)
S & V FARM
$21K (6)
VILLAGE GREEN
$21K (6)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$53.4B
Total Awards
21%
Defense ($1.2B)
10,273,419
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Other Waste Collection · $2.0B Engineering Services · $558.8M Commercial and Institutional B · $547.7M Computer Systems Design Servic · $547.0M Administrative Management and · $477.9M Research and Development in th · $329.6M
Recipient Amount
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HU
$43.4B
TRANSPORTATION NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT
$3.3B
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC INST
$3.1B
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFE
$1.6B
DEPARTMENT OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
$1.5B
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NORTH CAROLINA
$1.5B
NORTH CAROLINA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT
$1.3B
DUKE UNIVERSITY
$820.6M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Cooper (D)
$26.8M
$18.5M
38%
31%
$78K
$2.8M
Whatley (R)
$8.4M
$2.5M
34%
70%
$7.8M
Nickel (D)
$589K
$689K
20%
217%
Brown (R)
$225K
32%
100%
$10K
Financial Breakdown
Total Raised
$26,822,373
Cash on Hand
$18,455,463
Disbursements
$8,366,910
Individual Contributions
$10,689,978
PAC Contributions
$648,235
Small Dollar %
38.2%
Burn Rate
31.2%
Net IE Advantage
$-2.7M
Whatley (R)
Total Raised
$8,410,252
Cash on Hand
$2,528,343
Disbursements
$5,881,909
Individual Contributions
$3,752,923
PAC Contributions
$732,500
Small Dollar %
33.5%
Burn Rate
69.9%
Net IE Advantage
+$7.8M
Nickel (D)
Total Raised
$588,995
Cash on Hand
$688,991
Disbursements
$1,277,986
Individual Contributions
$534,864
PAC Contributions
$41,010
Small Dollar %
19.8%
Burn Rate
217.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Brown (R)
Total Raised
$224,689
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$225,530
Individual Contributions
$211,660
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
32.4%
Burn Rate
100.4%
Net IE Advantage
+$10K
📜 Historical Context — North Carolina
Partisan Lean R+6
→ Stable

NC has a partisan lean of R+6. The state's partisan lean has been stable. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+5).

Presidential Results
2020 R+1.3
2016 R+3.6
2012 R+2.0
2008 D+0.3
2004 R+12.4
Senate Results
2020 R+1.8
2016 R+5.7
2014 R+1.5
2010 R+11.8