Wisconsin 1st — Election Intelligence

🧠 Race Intelligence

Toss-Up

Signal Alignment INSUFFICIENT DATA at 0%

Data Signals

📈 Van Orden: Net IE: +219K

🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race

Committee

Direction

Amount

NORTHWOODS FUTURE PAC

Supporting Alfonso

$5.4M

LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR A SAFER AMERICA PAC

Supporting Van Orden

$308K

AMERICAN FUTURE FUND POLITICAL ACTION

Supporting Alfonso

$199K

THE WISCO PROJECT PAC

Supporting Van Orden

$67K

AMERICANS 4 SECURITY PAC

Supporting Alfonso

$43K

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER P

Supporting Alfonso

$30K

WELCOMEPAC

Supporting Cooke

$28K

MAHA PAC

Supporting Alfonso

$20K

SPECIAL OPERATIONS FOR AMERICA

Supporting Van Orden

$20K

DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF WISCONSIN FEDERAL

Supporting Van Orden

$4K

🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A

Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.

VAN ORDEN (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)

FOUNDERS FUND

$14K (4)

WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

$14K (4)

STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES

$14K (4)

MIDLAND ENERGY

$14K (4)

HENDRICKS HOLDING

$14K (4)

VALMORE GP

$13K (5)

EDW. C. LEVY

$8K (33)

ANTON DEVCO

$7K (3)

FRANKLIN MOUNTAIN MANAGEMENT

$7K (5)

STEPHENS

$7K (3)

COOKE (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (5 also lobby Congress)

UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN

$23K (63)

SCHUSTERMAN INTERESTS

$21K (6)

JANE STREET CAPITAL

$20K (6)

PABLO FOUNDATION

$10K (3)

UW HEALTH

$10K (29)

CHARLESBANK CAPITAL PARTNERS

$8K (3)

THE WALT DISNEY CO

$8K (7)

GOOGLE

$7K (9)

RUEDEBUSCH DEVELOPMENT & CONSTRUCTION

$7K (2)

QPRIME

$7K (2)

STEIL (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)

KLONDIKE CHEESE

$42K (12)

COINBASE

$30K (9)

CAPITAL GROUP

$25K (10)

BLACKROCK

$19K (9)

PARADIGM

$15K (6)

FOUNDERS FUND

$14K (4)

BLACKSTONE

$14K (5)

WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

$14K (4)

SOLANA LABS

$14K (4)

STARSKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES

$14K (4)

WASSGREN (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups

MADISON RETIREMENT ADMIN

$7K (2)

MAHALIA VEDIC WELLNESS

$7K (3)

BOM INVESTMENTS

$7K (3)

MULTICARE HEALTH SYSTEM

$7K (2)

FISHER INVESTMENTS

$7K (5)

HAVERSINE FUNDING

$3K (1)

WRI

$506 (2)

HCVT CPAS

$500 (1)

ZEPPELIN CAPITAL

$500 (1)

HERMENING (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups

HERMENING FINANCIAL GROUP

$210 (1)

FITZGERALD (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)

BGR GROUP

$10K (10)

MILWAUKEE TOOL

$9K (10)

ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT

$7K (3)

ABC

$7K (2)

BLACKSTONE

$7K (3)

ULINE

$7K (3)

TOLL FOUNDATION

$7K (3)

THE GIBSON GROUP

$6K (5)

HORICON BANK

$5K (3)

CONNECTOR

$4K (3)

MOORE (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups

EPIC SYSTEMS

$7K (2)

LEM SETTLEMENT GROUP

$5K (2)

GTW

$5K (2)

BOSTON MUTUAL LIFE INSURANCE COMPANY

$5K (2)

CD SMITH

$4K (2)

NEWS MEDIA ALLIANCE

$4K (1)

THRIVENT

$4K (1)

ONEAMERICA FINANCIAL

$3K (1)

PROTECTIVE LIFE

$3K (1)

MASSMUTUAL

$3K (1)

WIED (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups

CASH DEPOT

$7K (3)

HJ MARTIN & SON

$7K (4)

SPACEX

$7K (3)

BGR GROUP

$5K (6)

QPS EMPLOYMENT GROUP

$5K (3)

GREEN BAY PACKING

$5K (3)

UFA

$5K (3)

PLEXUS

$4K (5)

EPIC

$3K (1)

NEUMANN COMPANIES

$3K (1)

🔀 14 SPLIT DONORS — Employers whose staff donate to both sides
FOUNDERS FUND: VAN ORDEN $14,000 / STEIL $14,000. WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT: VAN ORDEN $14,000 / STEIL $14,000. MIDLAND ENERGY: VAN ORDEN $14,000 / STEIL $14,000.

Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence

Federal Spending Context (CD-01)

Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov

$51.5B

Total Awards

5,795,483

Population

Top Industries & Recipients ▾

Ammunition (except Small Arms) · $401.1M Other Engine Equipment Manufac · $50.5M Mechanical Power Transmission · $12.9M Saw Blade and Handtool Manufac · $12.2M Fruit and Vegetable Canning · $9.7M Animal (except Poultry) Slaugh · $6.9M

Recipient Amount

AMTEC CORPORATION

$401.1M

GOODWILL INDUSTRIES OF SOUTHEASTERN WISC

$174.3M

FAIRBANKS MORSE, LLC

$83.5M

IDSC HOLDINGS LLC

$35.1M

HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC.

$18.6M

CORPS MEDICAL SUPPLY, LLC

$13.7M

SHINE TECHNOLOGIES, LLC

$13.6M

WISCONSIN DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS

$12.1M

Candidate Comparison

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

Burn

IE For

IE Agst

Steil (R)

—

$5.5M

$6.3M

17%

25%

—

Financial Breakdown

Steil (R)

Total Raised

$5,467,777

Cash on Hand

$6,327,099

Disbursements

$1,359,849

Individual Contributions

$1,493,423

PAC Contributions

$1,633,675

Small Dollar %

17.0%

Burn Rate

24.9%

Net IE Advantage

$0

📜 Historical Context — Wisconsin

Partisan Lean R+3

↘ Trending R+6

WI has a partisan lean of R+3. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 6 points in recent elections. Democrats won 3 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin D+15).

Presidential Results

2020 D+0.6

2016 R+0.7

2012 D+6.9

2008 D+13.9

2004 D+0.4

Senate Results

2018 D+10.8

2016 R+3.4

2012 D+5.5

2010 D+47.0