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Senate · Texas · Republican Primary
Texas Senate GOP Primary
📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Jul 06, 2026 11:32 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$11.4M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$37.0M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$56.1M
16 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $22.1M (raised + IE)
📉 Paxton: Net IE: -24.9M
📈 Cornyn: Net IE: +9.3M
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC
Opposing Paxton
$1K
📊 Primary Market — Polymarket
Ken Paxton LEADER
100¢
100.0%
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
100%
Ken PaxtonLEADER
→
—
7d
$18.0M
Total Volume
24h: $0
No price history available
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: Paxton 100%
🔵 0 DEM whales ($0)
·
🔴 0 REP whales ($0)
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
Paxton
$85K
9¢ → 100¢ (+$153,905)
Paxton
$64K
40¢ → 100¢ (+$76,918)
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $76.6M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $56.1M in campaign spending in this race.
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security
🏥 Healthcare & Pharma
🏭 Trade & Manufacturing
⚡ Energy & Utilities
Company
Lobbying $
Campaign $
Candidate
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence.
Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide).
Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Paxton (GOP)
Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
PEM-AIR TURBINE ENGINE SERVICES
$28K
(8)
Cornyn (GOP)
Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Candidate Comparison
Paxton (R)
—
$5.9M
$3.9M
13%
33%
$1K
$24.9M
Cornyn (R)
—
$5.5M
$5.0M
5%
84%
$10.7M
$1.4M
Financial Breakdown
Individual Contributions
$5,834,256
PAC Contributions
$21,500
Individual Contributions
$2,014,113
PAC Contributions
$649,693
📜 Historical Context — Texas
TX has a partisan lean of R+11. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 7 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+14).
Presidential Results
2020 R+5.6
2016 R+9.0
2012 R+15.8
2008 R+11.8
2004 R+22.9
Senate Results
2020 R+9.6
2018 R+2.6
2014 R+27.2
2012 R+15.9