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Senate · Texas · Republican Primary

Texas Senate GOP Primary

📅 GOP Runoff: May 26, 2026 · General: November 3, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Apr 25, 2026 04:48 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$11.4M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$37.0M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$56.1M
16 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $22.1M (raised + IE)
📉 Paxton: Net IE: -24.9M
📈 Cornyn: Net IE: +9.3M
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
Opposing Paxton
$24.9M
Supporting Cornyn
$9.9M
Supporting Cornyn
$748K
Supporting Cornyn
$700K
Supporting Cornyn
$515K
MONTGOMERY COUNTY FIRST PAC
Opposing Paxton
$1K
📊 Primary Market — Polymarket
Paxton +15 Volume: $15.8M
Source: Polymarket
Paxton 56¢
Cornyn 42¢
Ken Paxton LEADER 56¢ 56.5%
John Cornyn 42¢ 41.5%
Dawn Buckingham 0.1%
Wesley Hunt 0.1%
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
56%
Ken PaxtonLEADER
-5.0% 7d
42%
John Cornyn
+2.5% 7d
$15.8M
Total Volume
24h: $24K
Ken Paxton
Ken Paxton 56% 70%59%48% Mar 25Apr 07Apr 25
John Cornyn
John Cornyn 42% 52%40%28% Mar 25Apr 09Apr 25
Spread: 1.0% Liquidity: Tight
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: 100%
🔵 0 DEM whales ($0)  ·  🔴 0 REP whales ($0)
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
0xa5ef...2966
$168K
fourfive
$56K
40¢ → 56¢ (+$21,162)
Flipadelphia
$37K
0xcfb9...e328
$25K
waterfall0
$23K
ZXWP
$19K
pass1ve
$17K
New.Jeans
$6K
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $76.5M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $56.1M in campaign spending in this race.
16
Corporate Clients
$76.5M
Lobbying Spend
$56.1M
Campaign Spending
99
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing ⚡ Energy & Utilities
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 🏥 💰 🛡️
$71.1M
$288K
Cornyn
CLEARPATH ACTION FOR CONSERVATIVE CLEAN ENERGY, INC. ⚡ 🤖
$2.8M
$515K
Cornyn
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND FOR CONSERVATIVE CLEAN ENERGY, INC.
$450K
$515K
Cornyn
CLEAR 🛡️
$450K
$515K
Cornyn
LEAR CORPORATION 🏭
$350K
$515K
Cornyn
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 🏥 💰
$325K
$288K
Cornyn
CLEARPATH ACTION FOR CONSERVATIVE CLEAN ENERGY,INC.
$250K
$515K
Cornyn
ATI, INC.
$210K
$24.9M
Paxton
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Paxton (GOP) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
RYAN
$254K (99)
ENTREPRENEUR
$49K (34)
LEDWELL
$32K (3)
PEM-AIR TURBINE ENGINE SERVICES
$28K (8)
DISCOVERY OPERATING
$28K (13)
BOBBY COX COMPANIES
$28K (8)
INVESTOR
$22K (6)
PACE-O-MATIC
$21K (9)
ELLISON DEVELOPMENT
$21K (8)
JAT CAPITAL PARTNERS
$21K (5)
Cornyn (GOP) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
AT&T
$49K (38)
CHARTER BROKERAGE
$41K (21)
BLACKSTONE
$38K (14)
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS
$25K (17)
IBC BANK
$22K (23)
TRT HOLDINGS
$21K (6)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$17K (8)
INTEGRITY
$15K (10)
CITIZENS FIRST BANK
$14K (6)
JANE STREET
$14K (5)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Paxton (R)
$5.9M
$3.9M
13%
33%
$1K
$24.9M
Cornyn (R)
$5.5M
$5.0M
5%
84%
$10.7M
$1.4M
Financial Breakdown
Total Raised
$5,857,093
Cash on Hand
$3,931,277
Disbursements
$1,925,816
Individual Contributions
$5,834,256
PAC Contributions
$21,500
Small Dollar %
13.2%
Burn Rate
32.9%
Net IE Advantage
$-24.9M
Total Raised
$5,498,119
Cash on Hand
$4,972,818
Disbursements
$4,647,584
Individual Contributions
$2,014,113
PAC Contributions
$649,693
Small Dollar %
5.2%
Burn Rate
84.5%
Net IE Advantage
+$9.3M
📜 Historical Context — Texas
Partisan Lean R+11
↗ Trending D+7

TX has a partisan lean of R+11. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 7 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+14).

Presidential Results
2020 R+5.6
2016 R+9.0
2012 R+15.8
2008 R+11.8
2004 R+22.9
Senate Results
2020 R+9.6
2018 R+2.6
2014 R+27.2
2012 R+15.9