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House · Arizona · General Election

Arizona 1st

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: July 21, 2026
Last updated: Apr 25, 2026 04:48 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$9.9M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$51K
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$105K
8 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Voter Registration
REP
R+160,000 (3.7%) (GOP gaining 62,000 registration edge since 2024-11)
📈 Grijalva: Net IE: +738K
📈 Hernandez: Net IE: +85K
📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 62,000 registration edge since 2024-11
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
Supporting Grijalva
$436K
Supporting Grijalva
$424K
Supporting Grijalva
$404K
Supporting Grijalva
$160K
LCV VICTORY FUND
Supporting Grijalva
$120K
Supporting Crane
$21K
YOUTH SAVE DEMOCRACY PAC
Opposing Ciscomani
$13K
Supporting Crane
$11K
Supporting Crane
$10K
Supporting Crane
$8K
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $1.1M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $105K in campaign spending in this race.
8
Corporate Clients
$1.1M
Lobbying Spend
$105K
Campaign Spending
21
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 💰 Finance & Banking 🛡️ Defense & Security 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
UP FOR GROWTH ACTION INC 🏥 💰 🏭
$490K
$21K
CRANE
ATI, INC.
$210K
$689
CRANE
NATIONAL CLUB ASSOCIATION 🏥
$180K
$21K
CRANE
THE AMERICAN CLUB 🏥 💰
$150K
$21K
CRANE
HOUSE RX, INC.
$110K
$10K
CRANE
ACT INC 🛡️
$10K
$11K
CRANE
AC, INC.
$0
$11K
CRANE
HOUSE INSTITUTE FOUNDATION
$0
$10K
CRANE
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
CRANE (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
ENTREPRENEUR
$16K (5)
WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
$14K (4)
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES
$14K (4)
STANDARD INDUSTRIES
$7K (2)
STATION CASINOS
$7K (2)
DOBBS BROTHERS MANAGEMENT
$7K (7)
BOOK CAPITAL ENTERPRISES
$7K (4)
DANIELS MANUFACTURING CORP
$7K (2)
SILVER VENTURES
$7K (2)
INTERACTIVE BROKERS
$7K (2)
CISCOMANI (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups
HSL PROPERTIES
$29K (11)
COX ENTERPRISES
$23K (18)
ENTREPRENEUR
$21K (7)
COTTONWOOD PROPERTIES
$14K (5)
WINDMILL WINERY
$14K (5)
HYDRONALIX
$14K (4)
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES
$14K (4)
WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
$14K (4)
JIM CLICK AUTOMOTIVE
$14K (4)
EDISON CHOUEST OFFSHORE
$14K (4)
MENDOZA (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
NO EMPLOYER
$48K (25)
SCHUSTERMAN INTERESTS
$7K (3)
BROWN BROTHERS HARRIMAN
$7K (5)
TAWANI ENTERPRISES
$7K (5)
CAL ARTS
$7K (3)
THE ANALYSIS GROUP
$7K (3)
SI
$7K (3)
MINNEAPOLIS RADIATION ONCOLOGY
$7K (3)
NEW VILLAGES GROUP
$7K (4)
LIFEYIELD
$7K (3)
TREBLE (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (3 also lobby Congress)
GREAT NORTH VENTURES
$14K (8)
WITHME
$14K (15)
NATIONAL LIABILITY AND FIRE
$7K (5)
KAY & ASSOCIATES
$7K (2)
KEETON PUBLIC RELATIONS
$7K (2)
CAROPRESE & COMPANY
$7K (3)
HEINZ & ASSOCIATES
$7K (3)
ECOFI
$7K (2)
CENTURY 21 CONCEPT 100
$7K (3)
HOMEE
$7K (4)
GRIJALVA (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
PIMA COUNTY
$15K (51)
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
$10K (31)
NEXXUS CONSULTING
$7K (5)
PERRY, WHITE, ROSS AND JACOBSON
$5K (2)
CITY OF TUCSON
$5K (15)
WITHME
$4K (2)
HERRERA ARELLANO
$4K (3)
AT&T
$4K (3)
D&P CREATIVE STRATEGIES
$4K (4)
DWE MANAGEMENT
$4K (12)
STANTON (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)
ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVICE
$9K (4)
CRESCENT CROWN DISTRIBUTING
$8K (4)
PERKINS COIE
$8K (4)
TAN HUCA
$7K (11)
LINCOLN INSTITUTE OF LAND POLICY
$7K (2)
RMB III CONSULTANCY
$7K (2)
LAW OFFICE OF JOSEPH C TANN PLLC
$7K (2)
GPW
$7K (2)
SNELL & WILMER L.L.P.
$7K (4)
VLC ENTERPRISE
$7K (2)
NEZ (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups
JANESTREET
$7K (3)
MASS GENERAL HOSPITAL
$7K (3)
PHYSICIANS COMMITTEE FOR RESPONSIBLE M
$7K (3)
THE TOWNE LAW FIRM
$7K (3)
SCHUSTERMAN INTERESTS
$7K (3)
SI
$7K (3)
ANTELOPE CANYON TOURS
$7K (3)
Q PRIME
$7K (3)
INTRAFI
$6K (3)
LVPG
$5K (3)
HERNANDEZ (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
VERIDUS
$8K (15)
PACHULSKI, STANG, ZIEHL & JONES
$7K (2)
STATE OF AZ
$4K (2)
ARIZONA COMMUNITY PHYSICIANS
$4K (3)
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
$4K (2)
STATE OF ARIZONA
$4K (6)
CORNERSTONE PUBLIC AFFAIRS
$4K (2)
HENSLEY BEVERAGE
$4K (4)
MESA PUBLIC SCHOOLS
$4K (1)
BESHERT
$4K (1)
🔀 12 SPLIT DONORS — Employers whose staff donate to both sides
ENTREPRENEUR: CRANE $15,637 / CISCOMANI $21,345. WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT: CRANE $14,000 / CISCOMANI $14,000. STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES: CRANE $14,000 / CISCOMANI $14,000.
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (CD-01)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$51.9B
Total Awards
60%
Defense ($611.5M)
7,016,270
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Research and Development in th · $434.6M Engineering Services · $137.3M Radio and Television Broadcast · $88.5M Other Management Consulting Se · $81.8M Computing Infrastructure Provi · $65.9M All Other Telecommunications · $55.4M
Recipient Amount
GENERAL DYNAMICS MISSION SYSTEMS, INC.
$813.7M
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY & MILITA
$408.4M
NAVAJO HOUSING AUTHORITY
$133.0M
AXON ENTERPRISE, INC.
$93.9M
HEALTH SERVICES ADVISORY GROUP, INC.
$93.4M
NAVAJO NATION TRIBAL GOVERNMENT
$84.4M
ODLE MANAGEMENT GROUP, L.L.C.
$66.8M
TRIBAL HEALTH, LLC
$48.6M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Crane (R)
$7.4M
$2.3M
40%
73%
$51K
Treble (D)
$2.5M
$1.7M
8%
33%
Financial Breakdown
Crane (R)
Total Raised
$7,449,412
Cash on Hand
$2,322,822
Disbursements
$5,443,960
Individual Contributions
$6,673,658
PAC Contributions
$55,500
Small Dollar %
40.4%
Burn Rate
73.1%
Net IE Advantage
+$51K
Treble (D)
Total Raised
$2,482,935
Cash on Hand
$1,667,059
Disbursements
$815,876
Individual Contributions
$1,336,617
PAC Contributions
$13,550
Small Dollar %
8.2%
Burn Rate
32.9%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — Arizona
Partisan Lean R+28
↗ Trending D+22

AZ has a partisan lean of R+28. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 22 points in recent elections. Senate races have been split 2-2 in the last 4 elections.

Presidential Results
2020 D+0.3
2016 R+48.7
2012 R+9.1
2008 R+8.5
2004 R+10.5
Senate Results
2020 (special) R+0.0
2018 D+2.4
2016 D+40.7
2012 R+3.0