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Senate · Alaska · General Election

Alaska Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: August 18, 2026
C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Last updated: Jul 06, 2026 11:32 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$15.2M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$2.6M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$6.7M
18 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $0.9M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
REP
Lean R (unanimous) — Cook: Lean R / Sabato: Lean R / Inside: Lean R
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
LAST FRONTIER PAC
Opposing Peltola
$1.6M
SLF PAC
Supporting Sullivan
$516K
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC
Supporting Sullivan
$420K
SLF PAC
Opposing Peltola
$82K
INDIVISIBLE ACTION
Supporting Sullivan
$31K
BLUE BATTLEGROUND PROJECT
Opposing Peltola
$10K
FORWARD BLUE
Opposing Peltola
$1K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
60%
Mary PeltolaLEADER
→ -12.2% 7d
40%
Dan Sullivan
→ +35.0% 7d
$357K
Total Volume
24h: $63
Mary Peltola
Mary Peltola 61% 70%61%51% Jun 07Jun 22Jul 06
Dan Sullivan
Dan Sullivan 40% 42%36%30% Jun 07Jun 22Jul 06
Spread: 2.0% Liquidity: Normal
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: DEM 50%
🔵 7 DEM whales ($10K)  ·  🔴 7 REP whales ($719) · 3 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
tunatyler
DEM
$2K
49¢ → 61¢ (+$466)
nnimrodd
DEM
$2K
64¢ → 61¢ (-$102)
carkiller530
DEM
$1K
—
mwenya
DEM
$1K
50¢ → 40¢ (-$347)
Sayl7Seas
DEM
$1K
48¢ → 61¢ (+$406)
mountaindewd
DEM
$1K
52¢ → 61¢ (+$168)
leftisright
DEM
$1K
57¢ → 61¢ (+$69)
paspor
REP
$715
—
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $8.2M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $6.7M in campaign spending in this race.
18
Corporate Clients
$8.2M
Lobbying Spend
$6.7M
Campaign Spending
95
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 💰 Finance & Banking 🤖 Tech & AI
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 ⚡
$3.4M
$420K
Sullivan
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$2.7M
$420K
Sullivan
NOTARIZE, INC. DBA PROOF.COM 🤖 🛡️ 💰
$610K
$420K
Sullivan
PAYWARD, INC. DBA KRAKEN 💰
$300K
$420K
Sullivan
CHATTEM, INC. DBA OPELLA 🏥 🏭
$290K
$420K
Sullivan
ZESTFINANCE, INC. DBA ZEST AI 💰
$270K
$420K
Sullivan
MAPLEBEAR INC. DBA INSTACART 🏥
$180K
$420K
Sullivan
Y 🏥
$150K
$420K
Sullivan
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Sullivan (GOP) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
GCI
$12K (7)
TRIBE
$9K (3)
INDEPENDENCE TUBE
$7K (2)
THE PRITZKER ORGANIZATION
$7K (2)
STRIPE
$7K (3)
KNOWLEDGE CREATORS
$7K (4)
BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS
$7K (2)
EDWARD C LEVY COMPANY
$7K (2)
J.W. CHILDS ASSOCIATES
$7K (2)
ECA SOLAR
$7K (4)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$6.5B
Total Awards
28%
Defense ($854.6M)
739,795
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Commercial and Institutional B · $513.3M Other Heavy and Civil Engineer · $510.5M Pharmacy Benefit Management an · $484.7M Facilities Support Services · $327.5M Engineering Services · $317.3M Petroleum Refineries · $242.2M
Recipient Amount
STATE OF ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
$4.5B
ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION & PU
$1.4B
AK DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COMMUNITY ECON
$1.1B
EDUCATION & EARLY DEVELOPMENT ALASKA DEP
$399.0M
BERING STRAITS GLOBAL INNOVATIONS, LLC
$304.7M
PARAGON PROFESSIONAL SERVICES LLC
$264.7M
PETRO STAR INC.
$220.6M
NOVA SPACE SOLUTIONS, LLC
$212.4M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Peltola (D)
—
$8.7M
$5.7M
46%
34%
$11K
$1.6M
Sullivan (R)
—
$6.5M
$7.1M
8%
23%
$936K
$31K
Financial Breakdown
Peltola (D)
🌐 Website 𝕏 @prior_prior_prior_Mary_Peltola
Total Raised
$8,661,662
Cash on Hand
$5,727,109
Disbursements
$2,934,554
Individual Contributions
$7,563,868
PAC Contributions
$449,746
Small Dollar %
46.1%
Burn Rate
33.9%
Net IE Advantage
$-1.6M
Sullivan (R)
🌐 Website 𝕏 @prior_SenDan
Total Raised
$6,500,847
Cash on Hand
$7,086,053
Disbursements
$1,505,700
Individual Contributions
$2,531,692
PAC Contributions
$1,398,300
Small Dollar %
8.0%
Burn Rate
23.2%
Net IE Advantage
+$905K
📜 Historical Context — Alaska
Partisan Lean R+16
↗ Trending D+7

AK has a partisan lean of R+16. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 7 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+15).

Presidential Results
2020 R+10.0
2016 R+14.7
2012 R+14.0
2008 R+21.5
2004 R+25.6
Senate Results
2020 R+12.7
2016 R+32.8
2014 R+2.2
2010 R+12.1