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Senate · Alaska · General Election

Alaska Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Last updated: Nov 01, 2026 06:45 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$48.4M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$520.8M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$854.0M
26 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $0.9M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
REP
Lean R (unanimous) — Cook: Lean R / Sabato: Lean R / Inside: Lean R
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
SLF PAC
Opposing Peltola
$94.3M
NORTH STAR
Opposing Sullivan
$76.8M
LAST FRONTIER PAC
Opposing Peltola
$74.4M
NO GOING BACK PAC INC.
Opposing Peltola
$31.0M
WOMEN VOTE
Opposing Sullivan
$26.2M
WINSENATE
Opposing Sullivan
$23.1M
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC
Opposing Sullivan
$22.9M
59 PAC
Opposing Peltola
$18.2M
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC
Opposing Peltola
$18.0M
NO GOING BACK PAC INC.
Opposing Sullivan
$17.3M
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
74%
Mary PeltolaLEADER
→ 0.0% 7d
26%
Sen. Dan Sullivan
→ +3.9% 7d
$2.5M
Total Volume
24h: $100K
Mary Peltola
Mary Peltola 74% 76%72%70% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
Sen. Dan Sullivan
Sen. Dan Sulliv 26% 30%28%25% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
Spread: 1.0% Liquidity: Tight
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: DEM 73%
🔵 8 DEM whales ($278K)  ·  🔴 8 REP whales ($34) · 2 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
0xF30F7e57080d333ff3
DEM
$78K
—
BreakTheBank
DEM
$55K
—
scottilicious
DEM
$47K
—
0xfcb034ffesa540c81a
DEM
$34K
—
Imbleciar
DEM
$18K
—
nigiri99
DEM
$16K
—
YouNoWho
DEM
$15K
—
Contestable-Parfait
DEM
$14K
—
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $12.7M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $854.0M in campaign spending in this race.
26
Corporate Clients
$12.7M
Lobbying Spend
$854.0M
Campaign Spending
132
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 💰 Finance & Banking 🤖 Tech & AI
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 🏭
$5.0M
$18.0M
Peltola
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$3.3M
$18.0M
Peltola
NOTARIZE, INC. DBA PROOF.COM 🛡️ 🤖 💰
$820K
$18.0M
Peltola
LEAGUE OF WOMEN VOTERS OF THE U.S. 🏥 ⚡ 💰
$643K
$26.2M
Sullivan
NORTH STAR SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION 🛡️ 🤖
$480K
$76.8M
Sullivan
PAYWARD, INC. DBA KRAKEN 💰
$390K
$18.0M
Peltola
CHATTEM, INC. DBA OPELLA 🏥 🏭 💰
$360K
$18.0M
Peltola
ZESTFINANCE, INC. DBA ZEST AI 💰
$270K
$18.0M
Peltola
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Sullivan (GOP) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
GCI
$12K (7)
TRIBE
$9K (3)
INDEPENDENCE TUBE
$7K (2)
THE PRITZKER ORGANIZATION
$7K (2)
STRIPE
$7K (3)
KNOWLEDGE CREATORS
$7K (4)
BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS
$7K (2)
EDWARD C LEVY COMPANY
$7K (2)
J.W. CHILDS ASSOCIATES
$7K (2)
ECA SOLAR
$7K (4)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$6.5B
Total Awards
28%
Defense ($854.6M)
739,795
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Commercial and Institutional B · $513.3M Other Heavy and Civil Engineer · $510.5M Pharmacy Benefit Management an · $484.7M Facilities Support Services · $327.5M Engineering Services · $317.3M Petroleum Refineries · $242.2M
Recipient Amount
STATE OF ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
$4.5B
ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION & PU
$1.4B
AK DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COMMUNITY ECON
$1.1B
EDUCATION & EARLY DEVELOPMENT ALASKA DEP
$399.0M
BERING STRAITS GLOBAL INNOVATIONS, LLC
$304.7M
PARAGON PROFESSIONAL SERVICES LLC
$264.7M
PETRO STAR INC.
$220.6M
NOVA SPACE SOLUTIONS, LLC
$212.4M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Peltola (D)
—
$36.9M
$4.1M
38%
89%
$47.2M
$236.8M
Sullivan (R)
—
$11.5M
$2.8M
15%
94%
$47.2M
$189.5M
Financial Breakdown
Peltola (D)
🌐 Website 𝕏 @prior_prior_prior_Mary_Peltola
Total Raised
$36,887,509
Cash on Hand
$4,102,126
Disbursements
$32,785,383
Individual Contributions
$32,756,766
PAC Contributions
$845,259
Small Dollar %
37.9%
Burn Rate
88.9%
Net IE Advantage
$-189.5M
Sullivan (R)
🌐 Website 𝕏 @prior_SenDan
Total Raised
$11,508,274
Cash on Hand
$2,839,758
Disbursements
$10,759,421
Individual Contributions
$5,707,701
PAC Contributions
$2,284,539
Small Dollar %
15.2%
Burn Rate
93.5%
Net IE Advantage
$-142.3M
📜 Historical Context — Alaska
Partisan Lean R+16
↗ Trending D+7

AK has a partisan lean of R+16. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 7 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+15).

Presidential Results
2020 R+10.0
2016 R+14.7
2012 R+14.0
2008 R+21.5
2004 R+25.6
Senate Results
2020 R+12.7
2016 R+32.8
2014 R+2.2
2010 R+12.1