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Senate · Alaska · General Election

Alaska Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: August 18, 2026
C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R I: Lean R
Last updated: Apr 25, 2026 04:48 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$0
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$0
Independent expenditures
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $0.9M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
REP
Lean R (unanimous) — Cook: Lean R / Sabato: Lean R / Inside: Lean R
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
64%
Mary PeltolaLEADER
0.0% 7d
36%
Dan Sullivan
+2.9% 7d
$306K
Total Volume
24h: $120
Mary Peltola
Mary Peltola 64% 67%59%52% Mar 25Apr 10Apr 25
Dan Sullivan
Dan Sullivan 36% 48%40%32% Mar 25Apr 06Apr 25
Spread: 1.0% Liquidity: Tight
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: DEM 53%
🔵 5 DEM whales ($7K)  ·  🔴 5 REP whales ($3K) · 5 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
tunatyler
DEM
$2K
mwenya
DEM
$2K
carkiller530
DEM
$1K
nnimrodd
DEM
$1K
mountaindewd
DEM
$918
CoffeeLover
REP
$685
paspor
REP
$570
thecaricature
REP
$500
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Sullivan (GOP) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
GCI
$12K (7)
TRIBE
$9K (3)
INDEPENDENCE TUBE
$7K (2)
THE PRITZKER ORGANIZATION
$7K (2)
STRIPE
$7K (3)
KNOWLEDGE CREATORS
$7K (4)
BESSEMER VENTURE PARTNERS
$7K (2)
EDWARD C LEVY COMPANY
$7K (2)
J.W. CHILDS ASSOCIATES
$7K (2)
ECA SOLAR
$7K (4)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$6.5B
Total Awards
28%
Defense ($854.6M)
739,795
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Commercial and Institutional B · $513.3M Other Heavy and Civil Engineer · $510.5M Pharmacy Benefit Management an · $484.7M Facilities Support Services · $327.5M Engineering Services · $317.3M Petroleum Refineries · $242.2M
Recipient Amount
STATE OF ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH
$4.5B
ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION & PU
$1.4B
AK DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE COMMUNITY ECON
$1.1B
EDUCATION & EARLY DEVELOPMENT ALASKA DEP
$399.0M
BERING STRAITS GLOBAL INNOVATIONS, LLC
$304.7M
PARAGON PROFESSIONAL SERVICES LLC
$264.7M
PETRO STAR INC.
$220.6M
NOVA SPACE SOLUTIONS, LLC
$212.4M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Sullivan (R)
Peltola (D)
📜 Historical Context — Alaska
Partisan Lean R+16
↗ Trending D+7

AK has a partisan lean of R+16. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 7 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+15).

Presidential Results
2020 R+10.0
2016 R+14.7
2012 R+14.0
2008 R+21.5
2004 R+25.6
Senate Results
2020 R+12.7
2016 R+32.8
2014 R+2.2
2010 R+12.1