📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Runoff: May 26, 2026
C: Likely RS: Likely R
Last updated: Apr 24, 2026 04:46 AM
Poll Leader
Abbott +7.5
2 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$0
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$0
Independent expenditures
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
22%
DEM Price
→+10.3%7d
84%
REP Price
→0.0%7d
$10K
Total Volume
24h: $14
5.6%
Volatility
High
30d DEM: -6.5%30d REP: +7.1%
Spread: 3.0%Bid: 0.00Ask: 0.00Liquidity: Normal
🔴
Strong Divergence
Market 39¢ below polls
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$136.1B
Total Awards
52%
Defense ($52.2B)
28,304,596
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Aircraft Manufacturing · $36.0B
Pharmaceutical Preparation Man · $16.7B
Commercial and Institutional B · $14.4B
Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $10.7B
Offices of Physicians (except · $5.5B
Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $4.9B
RecipientAmount
HEALTH & HUMAN SVC COMMN TX
$55.3B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$38.6B
MCKESSON CORPORATION
$16.8B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$11.5B
TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
$7.6B
TX EDUCATION AGENCY
$6.1B
AGRICULTURE, TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF
$5.2B
VETERANS EVALUATION SERVICES, INC
$3.7B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Abbott (R)
49.5%
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—
—
—
—
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Hinojosa (D)
42.0%
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—
—
—
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📜 Historical Context — Texas
Partisan LeanR+11
↗ Trending D+7
TX has a partisan lean of R+11. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 7 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+14).