📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Runoff: May 26, 2026
C: Likely RS: Likely R
Last updated: Apr 30, 2026 04:44 AM
Poll Leader
Abbott +7.0
2 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$0
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$0
Independent expenditures
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
20%
DEM Price
→+11.1%7d
84%
REP Price
→+5.0%7d
$10K
Total Volume
24h: $49
5.7%
Volatility
High
30d DEM: +2.6%30d REP: +1.8%
Spread: 4.0%Bid: 0.00Ask: 0.00Liquidity: Normal
🔴
Strong Divergence
Market 41¢ below polls
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$136.1B
Total Awards
52%
Defense ($52.2B)
28,304,596
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Aircraft Manufacturing · $36.0B
Pharmaceutical Preparation Man · $16.7B
Commercial and Institutional B · $14.4B
Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $10.7B
Offices of Physicians (except · $5.5B
Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $4.9B
RecipientAmount
HEALTH & HUMAN SVC COMMN TX
$55.3B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$38.6B
MCKESSON CORPORATION
$16.8B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$11.5B
TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
$7.6B
TX EDUCATION AGENCY
$6.1B
AGRICULTURE, TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF
$5.2B
VETERANS EVALUATION SERVICES, INC
$3.7B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Abbott (R)
47.7%
—
—
—
—
—
—
Hinojosa (D)
40.7%
—
—
—
—
—
—
📜 Historical Context — Texas
Partisan LeanR+11
↗ Trending D+7
TX has a partisan lean of R+11. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 7 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+14).