← Back to Elections Dashboard
Senate · New Hampshire · General Election

New Hampshire Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: September 8, 2026
C: Likely D S: Likely D S: Likely D I: Likely D
Last updated: Jul 01, 2026 12:51 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$14.2M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$3.6M
Independent expenditures
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe D
Signal Alignment DEM at 100%
Data Signals
Money
DEM
DEM $6.6M / REP $0.0M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
DEM
Likely D (unanimous) — Cook: Likely D / Sabato: Likely D / Inside: Likely D
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
STRONG AS GRANITE PAC
Supporting Sununu
$261K
Opposing Pappas
$11K
CITIZENS AGAINST AIPAC CORRUPTION
Opposing Pappas
$3K
CITIZENS AGAINST AIPAC CORRUPTION
Supporting Manzur
$3K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
86%
DEM Price
+1.2% 7d
16%
REP Price
-17.9% 7d
$30K
Total Volume
24h: $0
0.7%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +1.8% 30d REP: -28.9%
DEM 86% 92%86%81% May 29Jun 14Jun 29
REP 16% 26%20%16% May 29Jun 14Jun 29
Spread: 2.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Normal
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: DEM 60%
🔵 7 DEM whales ($5K)  ·  🔴 7 REP whales ($1K) · 2 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
DBomb
DEM
$2K
84¢ → 84¢ (-$9)
WeJustBettin
DEM
$785
84¢ → 84¢ (-$1)
SitsToPee
DEM
$609
83¢ → 84¢ (+$9)
Billy2025
DEM
$525
80¢ → 84¢ (+$25)
haimshor
REP
$327
korda77
REP
$238
cigarettes
REP
$210
nufonehudis67
REP
$197
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Pappas (DEM) Top employer groups (3 also lobby Congress)
GENTEX
$19K (8)
PURITAN BACKROOM
$15K (6)
JANE STREET CAPITAL
$14K (4)
GIVE FORWARD FOUNDATION
$14K (3)
K&L GATES
$14K (6)
WELLS FARGO
$12K (5)
INVARIANT
$12K (8)
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS
$12K (17)
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
$11K (10)
MEOPTA USA
$10K (4)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$6.6B
Total Awards
37%
Defense ($971.2M)
1,342,795
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Small Arms, Ordnance, and Ordn · $480.2M Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $440.6M Commercial and Service Industr · $386.4M Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $336.9M Search, Detection, Navigation, · $335.0M Research and Development in th · $227.4M
Recipient Amount
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HUM
$3.3B
BAE SYSTEMS INFORMATION AND ELECTRONIC S
$1.1B
SIG SAUER INC.
$491.3M
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATI
$458.9M
L3 TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
$346.5M
BAE SYSTEMS INFORMATION & ELECTRONIC SYS
$325.2M
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION NEW HAMPSHIRE
$300.7M
TRUSTEES OF DARTMOUTH COLLEGE
$172.9M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Pappas (D)
$9.9M
$4.2M
36%
61%
$1K
$518K
Sununu (R)
$2.5M
$1.9M
16%
24%
$2.8M
$261K
Brown (R)
$1.7M
$783K
44%
53%
Manzur (D)
$114K
$15K
46%
87%
$3K
Sullivan (D)
$100K
$40K
16%
60%
Financial Breakdown
Pappas (D)
Total Raised
$9,860,676
Cash on Hand
$4,223,490
Disbursements
$6,044,770
Individual Contributions
$8,655,891
PAC Contributions
$951,873
Small Dollar %
35.6%
Burn Rate
61.3%
Net IE Advantage
$-517K
Sununu (R)
Total Raised
$2,475,941
Cash on Hand
$1,892,904
Disbursements
$583,037
Individual Contributions
$1,481,875
PAC Contributions
$308,500
Small Dollar %
16.3%
Burn Rate
23.5%
Net IE Advantage
+$2.6M
Brown (R)
Total Raised
$1,664,338
Cash on Hand
$783,386
Disbursements
$880,952
Individual Contributions
$930,184
PAC Contributions
$130,733
Small Dollar %
44.2%
Burn Rate
52.9%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Manzur (D)
Total Raised
$114,396
Cash on Hand
$14,655
Disbursements
$99,742
Individual Contributions
$113,726
PAC Contributions
$250
Small Dollar %
45.8%
Burn Rate
87.2%
Net IE Advantage
+$3K
Total Raised
$99,746
Cash on Hand
$39,696
Disbursements
$60,150
Individual Contributions
$86,646
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
15.7%
Burn Rate
60.3%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — New Hampshire
Partisan Lean D+0
↗ Trending D+2

NH has a partisan lean of D+0. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 2 points in recent elections. Democrats won 3 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin D+1).

Presidential Results
2020 D+7.3
2016 D+0.3
2012 D+5.6
2008 D+9.6
2004 D+1.4
Senate Results
2020 D+15.6
2016 D+0.2
2014 D+3.3
2010 R+23.3