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Senate · New Hampshire · General Election

New Hampshire Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Likely D S: Likely D S: Likely D I: Likely D
Last updated: Nov 01, 2026 06:45 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$32.3M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$71K
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$143K
4 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe D
Signal Alignment DEM at 100%
Data Signals
Money
DEM
DEM $6.6M / REP $0.0M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
DEM
Likely D (unanimous) — Cook: Likely D / Sabato: Likely D / Inside: Likely D
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
THE CONSERVATIVE CAUCUS DBA AMERICANS FOR CON
Opposing Manzur
$69K
CITIZENS AGAINST AIPAC CORRUPTION
Opposing Manzur
$3K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
94%
DEM Price
→ +2.2% 7d
6%
REP Price
→ -23.5% 7d
$580K
Total Volume
24h: $19K
0.3%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +8.1% 30d REP: -51.9%
DEM 94% 94%90%86% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
REP 6% 14%10%6% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: DEM 50%
🔵 7 DEM whales ($83K)  ·  🔴 7 REP whales ($23K) · 3 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
scottilicious
DEM
$17K
90¢ → 94¢ (+$603)
SAPolitcsSeer
DEM
$15K
91¢ → 94¢ (+$452)
dzsibenaja
DEM
$14K
88¢ → 94¢ (+$876)
Seutervoinen
DEM
$14K
85¢ → 94¢ (+$1,259)
Do-Not-Redeem
REP
$13K
86¢ → 6¢ (-$11,190)
JerryFloyd
DEM
$11K
93¢ → 94¢ (+$100)
danypotter
DEM
$11K
92¢ → 94¢ (+$191)
VictorLudorum
REP
$3K
—
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $1.6M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $143K in campaign spending in this race.
4
Corporate Clients
$1.6M
Lobbying Spend
$143K
Campaign Spending
10
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
COUNCIL FOR CITIZENS AGAINST GOVERNMENT WASTE 🛡️
$1.1M
$3K
MANZUR
ATI INC. 🛡️ 🏭
$250K
$69K
MANZUR
Y 🏥
$210K
$69K
MANZUR
AC, INC.
$0
$3K
MANZUR
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Pappas (DEM) Top employer groups (3 also lobby Congress)
GENTEX
$19K (8)
PURITAN BACKROOM
$15K (6)
JANE STREET CAPITAL
$14K (4)
GIVE FORWARD FOUNDATION
$14K (3)
K&L GATES
$14K (6)
WELLS FARGO
$12K (5)
INVARIANT
$12K (8)
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS
$12K (17)
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
$11K (10)
MEOPTA USA
$10K (4)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$6.6B
Total Awards
37%
Defense ($971.2M)
1,342,795
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Small Arms, Ordnance, and Ordn · $480.2M Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $440.6M Commercial and Service Industr · $386.4M Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $336.9M Search, Detection, Navigation, · $335.0M Research and Development in th · $227.4M
Recipient Amount
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HUM
$3.3B
BAE SYSTEMS INFORMATION AND ELECTRONIC S
$1.1B
SIG SAUER INC.
$491.3M
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATI
$458.9M
L3 TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
$346.5M
BAE SYSTEMS INFORMATION & ELECTRONIC SYS
$325.2M
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION NEW HAMPSHIRE
$300.7M
TRUSTEES OF DARTMOUTH COLLEGE
$172.9M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Pappas (D)
—
$23.7M
$2.0M
34%
93%
—
—
Sununu (R)
—
$5.7M
$1.7M
20%
69%
—
—
Brown (R)
—
$2.3M
$356K
45%
84%
—
—
Manzur (D)
—
$559K
$19K
29%
97%
$3K
$69K
Sullivan (D)
—
$100K
—
16%
100%
—
—
Financial Breakdown
Pappas (D)
Total Raised
$23,703,648
Cash on Hand
$1,984,366
Disbursements
$22,126,867
Individual Contributions
$21,080,102
PAC Contributions
$1,360,044
Small Dollar %
33.9%
Burn Rate
93.3%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Sununu (R)
Total Raised
$5,681,528
Cash on Hand
$1,711,396
Disbursements
$3,936,991
Individual Contributions
$3,214,180
PAC Contributions
$574,000
Small Dollar %
20.0%
Burn Rate
69.3%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Brown (R)
Total Raised
$2,255,700
Cash on Hand
$356,497
Disbursements
$1,899,202
Individual Contributions
$1,493,885
PAC Contributions
$130,733
Small Dollar %
44.7%
Burn Rate
84.2%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Manzur (D)
Total Raised
$558,788
Cash on Hand
$19,030
Disbursements
$539,759
Individual Contributions
$533,101
PAC Contributions
$250
Small Dollar %
28.9%
Burn Rate
96.6%
Net IE Advantage
$-66K
Sullivan (D)
🌐 Website 𝕏 @prior_SenDan
Total Raised
$100,112
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$100,212
Individual Contributions
$87,012
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
15.9%
Burn Rate
100.1%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — New Hampshire
Partisan Lean D+0
↗ Trending D+2

NH has a partisan lean of D+0. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 2 points in recent elections. Democrats won 3 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin D+1).

Presidential Results
2020 D+7.3
2016 D+0.3
2012 D+5.6
2008 D+9.6
2004 D+1.4
Senate Results
2020 D+15.6
2016 D+0.2
2014 D+3.3
2010 R+23.3