← Back to Elections Dashboard
Senate · New Hampshire · General Election

New Hampshire Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: September 8, 2026
C: Likely D S: Likely D S: Likely D I: Likely D
Last updated: Aug 02, 2026 05:27 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$19.3M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$5.2M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$19.0M
19 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe D
Signal Alignment DEM at 100%
Data Signals
Money
DEM
DEM $6.6M / REP $0.0M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
DEM
Likely D (unanimous) — Cook: Likely D / Sabato: Likely D / Inside: Likely D
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC
Supporting Sununu
$3.9M
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC
Opposing Pappas
$1.1M
STRONG AS GRANITE PAC
Supporting Sununu
$261K
SLF PAC
Opposing Pappas
$11K
CITIZENS AGAINST AIPAC CORRUPTION
Opposing Pappas
$3K
CITIZENS AGAINST AIPAC CORRUPTION
Supporting Manzur
$3K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
84%
DEM Price
→ 0.0% 7d
17%
REP Price
→ +9.7% 7d
$38K
Total Volume
24h: $0
0.1%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: -1.2% 30d REP: +6.3%
DEM 84% 84%83%82% Jul 02Jul 18Aug 02
REP 17% 18%16%16% Jul 02Jul 17Aug 02
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $10.8M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $19.0M in campaign spending in this race.
19
Corporate Clients
$10.8M
Lobbying Spend
$19.0M
Campaign Spending
98
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 💰 Finance & Banking 🤖 Tech & AI
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 ⚡
$4.0M
$1.1M
Pappas
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$3.3M
$1.1M
Pappas
COUNCIL FOR CITIZENS AGAINST GOVERNMENT WASTE 🛡️
$1.1M
$3K
Pappas
NOTARIZE, INC. DBA PROOF.COM 🤖 🛡️ 💰
$740K
$1.1M
Pappas
PAYWARD, INC. DBA KRAKEN 💰
$300K
$1.1M
Pappas
CHATTEM, INC. DBA OPELLA 🏥 🏭
$290K
$1.1M
Pappas
ZESTFINANCE, INC. DBA ZEST AI 💰
$270K
$1.1M
Pappas
Y 🏥
$180K
$1.1M
Pappas
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Pappas (DEM) Top employer groups (3 also lobby Congress)
GENTEX
$19K (8)
PURITAN BACKROOM
$15K (6)
JANE STREET CAPITAL
$14K (4)
GIVE FORWARD FOUNDATION
$14K (3)
K&L GATES
$14K (6)
WELLS FARGO
$12K (5)
INVARIANT
$12K (8)
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS
$12K (17)
HARVARD UNIVERSITY
$11K (10)
MEOPTA USA
$10K (4)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$6.6B
Total Awards
37%
Defense ($971.2M)
1,342,795
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Small Arms, Ordnance, and Ordn · $480.2M Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $440.6M Commercial and Service Industr · $386.4M Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $336.9M Search, Detection, Navigation, · $335.0M Research and Development in th · $227.4M
Recipient Amount
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HUM
$3.3B
BAE SYSTEMS INFORMATION AND ELECTRONIC S
$1.1B
SIG SAUER INC.
$491.3M
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATI
$458.9M
L3 TECHNOLOGIES, INC.
$346.5M
BAE SYSTEMS INFORMATION & ELECTRONIC SYS
$325.2M
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION NEW HAMPSHIRE
$300.7M
TRUSTEES OF DARTMOUTH COLLEGE
$172.9M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Pappas (D)
—
$13.4M
$5.2M
36%
64%
$1K
$1.1M
Sununu (R)
—
$3.7M
$2.7M
19%
27%
$3.9M
$261K
Brown (R)
—
$1.9M
$736K
45%
62%
—
—
Manzur (D)
—
$207K
$49K
41%
76%
$3K
—
Sullivan (D)
—
$100K
—
16%
100%
—
—
Financial Breakdown
Pappas (D)
Total Raised
$13,371,607
Cash on Hand
$5,183,321
Disbursements
$8,595,871
Individual Contributions
$11,626,103
PAC Contributions
$1,044,373
Small Dollar %
35.6%
Burn Rate
64.3%
Net IE Advantage
$-1.1M
Sununu (R)
Total Raised
$3,662,252
Cash on Hand
$2,672,646
Disbursements
$989,605
Individual Contributions
$2,056,766
PAC Contributions
$400,000
Small Dollar %
19.3%
Burn Rate
27.0%
Net IE Advantage
+$3.6M
Brown (R)
Total Raised
$1,943,325
Cash on Hand
$735,811
Disbursements
$1,207,514
Individual Contributions
$1,209,171
PAC Contributions
$130,733
Small Dollar %
45.2%
Burn Rate
62.1%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Manzur (D)
Total Raised
$206,753
Cash on Hand
$48,998
Disbursements
$157,755
Individual Contributions
$181,082
PAC Contributions
$250
Small Dollar %
41.1%
Burn Rate
76.3%
Net IE Advantage
+$3K
Sullivan (D)
🌐 Website 𝕏 @prior_SenDan
Total Raised
$100,112
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$100,212
Individual Contributions
$87,012
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
15.9%
Burn Rate
100.1%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — New Hampshire
Partisan Lean D+0
↗ Trending D+2

NH has a partisan lean of D+0. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 2 points in recent elections. Democrats won 3 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin D+1).

Presidential Results
2020 D+7.3
2016 D+0.3
2012 D+5.6
2008 D+9.6
2004 D+1.4
Senate Results
2020 D+15.6
2016 D+0.2
2014 D+3.3
2010 R+23.3