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Senate · Texas · General Election

Texas Senate General

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Runoff: May 26, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Apr 25, 2026 04:48 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$0
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$0
Independent expenditures
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $16.5M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
REP
Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R
📈 Cornyn: Net IE: +9.5M
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
44%
DEM Price
0.0% 7d
57%
REP Price
-0.9% 7d
$184K
Total Volume
24h: $3K
0.6%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +2.4% 30d REP: -1.7%
DEM 44% 46%44%42% Mar 25Apr 09Apr 25
REP 57% 58%56%54% Mar 25Apr 09Apr 25
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: REP 55%
🔵 4 DEM whales ($7K)  ·  🔴 4 REP whales ($18K) · 6 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
carkiller530
REP
$9K
65¢ → 56¢ (-$1,353)
TradeDeficitArchitec
REP
$4K
69¢ → 56¢ (-$943)
Patz3
DEM
$3K
58¢ → 43¢ (-$773)
basedbasedmoma
REP
$3K
30¢ → 56¢ (+$1,710)
tunatyler
REP
$3K
40¢ → 56¢ (+$979)
LiquidatedDegen
DEM
$1K
40¢ → 43¢ (+$75)
mountaindewd
DEM
$1K
41¢ → 43¢ (+$69)
zerosmart
DEM
$1K
42¢ → 43¢ (+$25)
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Cornyn (GOP) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
AT&T
$49K (38)
CHARTER BROKERAGE
$41K (21)
BLACKSTONE
$38K (14)
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS
$25K (17)
IBC BANK
$22K (23)
TRT HOLDINGS
$21K (6)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$17K (8)
INTEGRITY
$15K (10)
CITIZENS FIRST BANK
$14K (6)
JANE STREET
$14K (5)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$136.1B
Total Awards
52%
Defense ($52.2B)
28,304,596
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Aircraft Manufacturing · $36.0B Pharmaceutical Preparation Man · $16.7B Commercial and Institutional B · $14.4B Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $10.7B Offices of Physicians (except · $5.5B Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $4.9B
Recipient Amount
HEALTH & HUMAN SVC COMMN TX
$55.3B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$38.6B
MCKESSON CORPORATION
$16.8B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$11.5B
TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
$7.6B
TX EDUCATION AGENCY
$6.1B
AGRICULTURE, TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF
$5.2B
VETERANS EVALUATION SERVICES, INC
$3.7B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Cornyn (R)
📜 Historical Context — Texas
Partisan Lean R+11
↗ Trending D+7

TX has a partisan lean of R+11. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 7 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+14).

Presidential Results
2020 R+5.6
2016 R+9.0
2012 R+15.8
2008 R+11.8
2004 R+22.9
Senate Results
2020 R+9.6
2018 R+2.6
2014 R+27.2
2012 R+15.9