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Senate · Texas · General Election

Texas Senate General

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Jul 06, 2026 11:32 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$7.9M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$19.2M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$49.7M
15 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $16.5M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
REP
Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R
📈 Cornyn: Net IE: +9.5M
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
Supporting Cornyn
$10.6M
Supporting Cornyn
$4.9M
Supporting Cornyn
$1.4M
Supporting Cornyn
$1.0M
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
44%
DEM Price
0.0% 7d
57%
REP Price
+0.9% 7d
$559K
Total Volume
24h: $3K
0.7%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +7.4% 30d REP: -4.2%
DEM 44% 46%43%40% Jun 07Jun 22Jul 06
REP 57% 60%56%54% Jun 07Jun 22Jul 06
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: REP 57%
🔵 9 DEM whales ($26K)  ·  🔴 9 REP whales ($57K) · 1 hedged wallet filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
tNUb7u2zW8RRR32NqzjK
REP
$9K
57¢ → 57¢ (+$10)
Railcool
REP
$9K
42¢ → 57¢ (+$3,032)
carkiller530
REP
$9K
65¢ → 57¢ (-$1,277)
0x5375...aeea
REP
$8K
58¢ → 57¢ (-$87)
wan123
REP
$7K
39¢ → 57¢ (+$2,806)
just.some.guy.2026
DEM
$7K
60¢ → 44¢ (-$1,994)
korda77
REP
$5K
Tinto
REP
$4K
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $76.6M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $49.7M in campaign spending in this race.
15
Corporate Clients
$76.6M
Lobbying Spend
$49.7M
Campaign Spending
96
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing ⚡ Energy & Utilities
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 🏥 💰 🛡️
$71.1M
$794K
Cornyn
CLEARPATH ACTION FOR CONSERVATIVE CLEAN ENERGY, INC. ⚡ 🤖
$2.8M
$1.0M
Cornyn
CLEARPATH ACTION FUND FOR CONSERVATIVE CLEAN ENERGY, INC.
$450K
$1.0M
Cornyn
CLEAR 🛡️
$450K
$1.0M
Cornyn
LEAR CORPORATION 🏭
$350K
$1.0M
Cornyn
CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 🏥 💰
$325K
$794K
Cornyn
CLEARPATH ACTION FOR CONSERVATIVE CLEAN ENERGY,INC.
$250K
$1.0M
Cornyn
ATI, INC.
$210K
$10.6M
Cornyn
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Cornyn (GOP) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
AT&T
$49K (38)
CHARTER BROKERAGE
$41K (21)
BLACKSTONE
$38K (14)
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS
$25K (17)
IBC BANK
$22K (23)
TRT HOLDINGS
$21K (6)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$17K (8)
INTEGRITY
$15K (10)
CITIZENS FIRST BANK
$14K (6)
JANE STREET
$14K (5)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$136.1B
Total Awards
52%
Defense ($52.2B)
28,304,596
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Aircraft Manufacturing · $36.0B Pharmaceutical Preparation Man · $16.7B Commercial and Institutional B · $14.4B Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $10.7B Offices of Physicians (except · $5.5B Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $4.9B
Recipient Amount
HEALTH & HUMAN SVC COMMN TX
$55.3B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$38.6B
MCKESSON CORPORATION
$16.8B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$11.5B
TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
$7.6B
TX EDUCATION AGENCY
$6.1B
AGRICULTURE, TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF
$5.2B
VETERANS EVALUATION SERVICES, INC
$3.7B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Cornyn (R)
$7.9M
$4.1M
6%
101%
$12.9M
$6.3M
Financial Breakdown
Total Raised
$7,917,429
Cash on Hand
$4,078,081
Disbursements
$7,961,630
Individual Contributions
$3,390,659
PAC Contributions
$1,341,257
Small Dollar %
5.6%
Burn Rate
100.6%
Net IE Advantage
+$6.6M
📜 Historical Context — Texas
Partisan Lean R+11
↗ Trending D+7

TX has a partisan lean of R+11. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 7 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+14).

Presidential Results
2020 R+5.6
2016 R+9.0
2012 R+15.8
2008 R+11.8
2004 R+22.9
Senate Results
2020 R+9.6
2018 R+2.6
2014 R+27.2
2012 R+15.9