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Senate · Texas · General Election

Texas Senate General

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Nov 01, 2026 06:45 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$198.2M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$1.6B
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$66.7B
656 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $16.5M (raised + IE)
Expert Ratings
REP
Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R
📈 Cornyn: Net IE: +9.5M
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
TEXAS PAC
Opposing Paxton
$332.6M
TEXAS PAC
Opposing Talarico
$215.9M
Opposing Paxton
$178.4M
Opposing Paxton
$140.1M
TEXAS FOREVER
Opposing Paxton
$93.0M
Opposing Talarico
$76.0M
LOWER COSTS NOW
Opposing Paxton
$60.5M
MAGA INC.
Opposing Talarico
$60.2M
Opposing Talarico
$32.4M
DEFEND US PAC
Opposing Talarico
$24.7M
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
70%
DEM Price
→ +11.0% 7d
30%
REP Price
→ -19.2% 7d
$10.6M
Total Volume
24h: $1.3M
0.7%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: +16.5% 30d REP: -25.3%
DEM 70% 72%66%60% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
REP 30% 40%34%28% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: REP 72%
🔵 6 DEM whales ($220K)  ·  🔴 6 REP whales ($916K) · 4 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
whoareyoun
REP
$457K
—
wan123
REP
$153K
—
aHjCz
REP
$95K
—
Flipadelphia
REP
$75K
—
vavwqevw
REP
$75K
—
nigiri99
REP
$61K
—
tourists
DEM
$59K
64¢ → 70¢ (+$5,281)
lastminwin
DEM
$58K
63¢ → 70¢ (+$6,013)
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $578.1M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $66.7B in campaign spending in this race.
656
Corporate Clients
$578.1M
Lobbying Spend
$66.7B
Campaign Spending
2929
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🏭 Trade & Manufacturing 🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma ⚡ Energy & Utilities
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS 🏥 💰 🛡️
$86.1M
$2.0M
Cornyn
PHARMACEUTICAL RESEARCH AND MANUFACTURERS OF AMERICA 🏥 🏭 🛡️
$64.4M
$76.0M
Talarico
RECORDING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA 🛡️ 🤖 🏭
$16.2M
$76.0M
Talarico
SAP AMERICA, INC. 🤖 🏭 🛡️
$13.2M
$76.0M
Talarico
INDEPENDENT COMMUNITY BANKERS OF AMERICA 🛡️ 🏥 💰
$11.0M
$76.0M
Talarico
TOYOTA MOTOR NORTH AMERICA INC (TMA) 🛡️ 🤖 🏭
$10.8M
$76.0M
Talarico
SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS AMERICA, INC. 🏭 🤖 ⚡
$10.6M
$76.0M
Talarico
FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE NORTH AMERICA 🏥 🏭 🛡️
$10.2M
$76.0M
Talarico
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Cornyn (GOP) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
AT&T
$49K (38)
CHARTER BROKERAGE
$41K (21)
BLACKSTONE
$38K (14)
FIDELITY INVESTMENTS
$25K (17)
IBC BANK
$22K (23)
TRT HOLDINGS
$21K (6)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$17K (8)
INTEGRITY
$15K (10)
CITIZENS FIRST BANK
$14K (6)
JANE STREET
$14K (5)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$136.1B
Total Awards
52%
Defense ($52.2B)
28,304,596
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Aircraft Manufacturing · $36.0B Pharmaceutical Preparation Man · $16.7B Commercial and Institutional B · $14.4B Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $10.7B Offices of Physicians (except · $5.5B Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $4.9B
Recipient Amount
HEALTH & HUMAN SVC COMMN TX
$55.3B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$38.6B
MCKESSON CORPORATION
$16.8B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$11.5B
TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
$7.6B
TX EDUCATION AGENCY
$6.1B
AGRICULTURE, TEXAS DEPARTMENT OF
$5.2B
VETERANS EVALUATION SERVICES, INC
$3.7B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Talarico (D)
—
$146.3M
$9.9M
54%
93%
$63.3M
$424.2M
Paxton (R)
—
$22.3M
$4.8M
29%
79%
$446.9M
$527.1M
Crockett (D)
—
$11.1M
—
77%
100%
$1.5M
$9.0M
Cornyn (R)
—
$8.6M
$496K
6%
142%
$27.5M
$17.3M
Allred (D)
—
$7.6M
$402
56%
102%
—
—
Hunt (R)
—
$2.2M
$4K
52%
215%
$3.7M
$52.1M
Financial Breakdown
Talarico (D)
Total Raised
$146,349,912
Cash on Hand
$9,922,857
Disbursements
$136,427,055
Individual Contributions
$139,776,603
PAC Contributions
$468,806
Small Dollar %
53.9%
Burn Rate
93.2%
Net IE Advantage
$-360.9M
Total Raised
$22,327,474
Cash on Hand
$4,784,408
Disbursements
$17,543,066
Individual Contributions
$20,997,955
PAC Contributions
$392,150
Small Dollar %
28.9%
Burn Rate
78.6%
Net IE Advantage
$-80.1M
Total Raised
$11,096,966
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$11,096,966
Individual Contributions
$6,152,063
PAC Contributions
$50,885
Small Dollar %
76.6%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$-7.5M
Total Raised
$8,608,610
Cash on Hand
$496,092
Disbursements
$12,234,800
Individual Contributions
$3,756,192
PAC Contributions
$1,479,732
Small Dollar %
6.0%
Burn Rate
142.1%
Net IE Advantage
+$10.2M
Allred (D)
Total Raised
$7,630,708
Cash on Hand
$402
Disbursements
$7,774,441
Individual Contributions
$6,648,566
PAC Contributions
$26,500
Small Dollar %
55.8%
Burn Rate
101.9%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Hunt (R)
Total Raised
$2,154,468
Cash on Hand
$4,411
Disbursements
$4,637,233
Individual Contributions
$1,452,679
PAC Contributions
$166,500
Small Dollar %
51.8%
Burn Rate
215.2%
Net IE Advantage
$-48.4M
📜 Historical Context — Texas
Partisan Lean R+11
↗ Trending D+7

TX has a partisan lean of R+11. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 7 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+14).

Presidential Results
2020 R+5.6
2016 R+9.0
2012 R+15.8
2008 R+11.8
2004 R+22.9
Senate Results
2020 R+9.6
2018 R+2.6
2014 R+27.2
2012 R+15.9