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Senate · Iowa · General Election

Iowa Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: June 2, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Apr 17, 2026 04:41 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$10.8M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$3.7M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$3.7M
12 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Voter Registration
REP
R+170,000 (8.4%) (GOP gaining 34,000 registration edge since 2024-11)
Expert Ratings
REP
Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R
📈 Arenholz: Net IE: +440K
📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 34,000 registration edge since 2024-11
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
Supporting Turek
$3.6M
Opposing Ernst
$31K
BLUE DEMOCRACY NETWORK
Supporting Turek
$2K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
40%
DEM Price
0.0% 7d
60%
REP Price
-1.6% 7d
$105K
Total Volume
24h: $358
0.8%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: -4.7% 30d REP: +5.3%
DEM 40% 43%40%36% Mar 16Mar 25Apr 16
REP 60% 63%60%57% Mar 16Mar 24Apr 16
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $765K lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $3.7M in campaign spending in this race.
12
Corporate Clients
$765K
Lobbying Spend
$3.7M
Campaign Spending
21
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 🤖 Tech & AI 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
ATI, INC.
$210K
$312
TUREK
Y 🏥
$150K
$2K
TUREK
VOTEVETS ACTION FUND, INC. 🛡️ 🏥
$150K
$3.6M
TUREK
WORK INC.
$120K
$2K
TUREK
ALLIANCE FOR THE FUTURE 🤖 🛡️
$80K
$312
TUREK
DEMOCRACY 21 🛡️
$35K
$2K
TUREK
ACT INC 🛡️
$10K
$31K
ERNST
BLUE STATE ACTION, INC.
$10K
$2K
TUREK
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
ARENHOLZ (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
MARQUIS MANAGEMENT
$30K (12)
MIDAMERICAN AEROSPACE
$27K (8)
BLACKSTONE
$23K (10)
FAHR BEVERAGE
$22K (7)
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS
$18K (13)
UNIVERSAL INDUSTRIES
$18K (8)
S-3 GROUP
$17K (7)
ENTREPRENEUR
$15K (12)
AMWAY
$14K (6)
ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
$14K (5)
WAHLS (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA
$48K (114)
TAWANI ENTERPRISES
$10K (3)
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY
$10K (17)
THE SCOTT FOUNDATION
$7K (4)
MICROSOFT LOBBY+DONATE
$7K (3)
UNITED THERAPEUTICS
$7K (3)
VETERANS AFFAIRS HEALTH ADMINISTRATION
$7K (2)
COGNATE CONSULTING
$7K (7)
EDWARD SNOWDON JR.
$7K (2)
REPLACEMENTS, LTD.
$7K (2)
ERNST (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (3 also lobby Congress)
US AI
$13K (5)
APOLLO
$11K (5)
EDWARD C. LEVY
$7K (26)
AUDAX
$7K (3)
HUNT COMPANIES
$7K (2)
ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
$7K (3)
NEW MOUNTAIN CAPITAL
$7K (2)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$7K (3)
MOUNTAIRE
$7K (3)
PIVOTAL VENTURES
$7K (3)
TUREK (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
STUART TINLEY LAW FIRM
$8K (3)
SIMONSON & ASSOC
$7K (5)
STATE OF IOWA
$7K (10)
ROGER WEITZ CONSULTING
$7K (2)
JMB
$7K (2)
HEARTLAND PROPERTIES
$7K (2)
ALSOP LOUIE PARTNERS
$7K (2)
WEITZ FAMILY FOUNDATION
$7K (2)
ANB
$6K (2)
JANE STREET
$6K (2)
SAGE (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
CUNY
$14K (4)
MINNEAPOLIS RADIATION ONCOLOGY
$7K (2)
MICROSOFT LOBBY+DONATE
$4K (1)
ICSI
$4K (2)
FIGHT
$3K (3)
FIGHT AGENCY
$3K (2)
LIMINALITY CAPITAL
$2K (1)
LAND IQ
$2K (9)
USPS
$2K (1)
INTELLIGENT COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS
$2K (7)
NORRIS (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
ARTICULATE
$4K (1)
MEHLMAN CONSULTING
$4K (1)
2U
$4K (1)
HILLIS ELEMENTARY DMPS
$4K (1)
ITC HOLDINGS
$4K (1)
GOOGLE
$4K (3)
BACKUS CONSULTING
$2K (1)
JASPER ADVISORS
$2K (1)
FGS GLOBAL
$2K (1)
RENEWABLE FUELS ASSOCIATION
$2K (1)
CARLIN (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups
SOLID ROCK CHURCH
$260 (1)
FERGUSON DRONE SERVICE
$250 (1)
STATE OF IOWA
$200 (1)
VERIDIAN CREDIT UNION
$175 (4)
SCHOLTEN (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)
HAGENS BERMAN
$10K (3)
COLUMBIA LAW SCHOOL
$7K (2)
GOOGLE
$4K (3)
STATE OF CALIFORNIA
$4K (3)
THE HOWARD HUGHES
$4K (1)
MIKE LUX MEDIA
$2K (2)
AVERY BROS SIGN COMPANY
$2K (1)
CHRIS NUCKOLS
$2K (1)
FRIED FRANK HARRIS SHRIVER & JACOBSON
$1K (1)
ENTREPRENEURIAL TECHNOLOGIES
$1K (1)
🔀 9 SPLIT DONORS — Employers whose staff donate to both sides
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA: WAHLS $48,152 / TUREK $2,600. ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT: ARENHOLZ $14,000 / ERNST $7,000. JANE STREET: ARENHOLZ $14,000 / TUREK $5,722.
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$14.1B
Total Awards
35%
Defense ($1.1B)
3,145,711
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Ammunition (except Small Arms) · $899.0M Other Communications Equipment · $694.3M Radio and Television Broadcast · $410.0M Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $320.8M Search, Detection, Navigation, · $283.2M Engineering Services · $172.4M
Recipient Amount
IA DEPARTMENT OF HUMAN SERVICES
$10.8B
IOWA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
$1.6B
ROCKWELL COLLINS, INC.
$1.0B
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION IOWA
$864.3M
DATA LINK SOLUTIONS LLC
$583.5M
IOWA DEPARTMENT MANAGEMENT
$418.4M
ROCKWELL COLLINS, INC.
$357.2M
IOWA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES
$344.1M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Arenholz (R)
$4.9M
$5.2M
13%
34%
Ernst (R)
$2.0M
$2.1M
24%
106%
$31K
Turek (D)
$1.7M
$398K
56%
76%
$3.6M
Sage (D)
$1.4M
$102
71%
100%
Norris (D)
$364K
24%
100%
Carlin (R)
$247K
$32K
37%
87%
Scholten (D)
$213K
$8K
38%
96%
Wahls (D)
Financial Breakdown
Arenholz (R)
Total Raised
$4,892,227
Cash on Hand
$5,170,263
Disbursements
$1,650,040
Individual Contributions
$2,480,220
PAC Contributions
$1,399,500
Small Dollar %
13.1%
Burn Rate
33.7%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Ernst (R)
Total Raised
$1,996,006
Cash on Hand
$2,130,580
Disbursements
$2,105,268
Individual Contributions
$997,372
PAC Contributions
$637,250
Small Dollar %
23.5%
Burn Rate
105.5%
Net IE Advantage
$-31K
Turek (D)
Total Raised
$1,686,398
Cash on Hand
$398,474
Disbursements
$1,287,924
Individual Contributions
$1,662,301
PAC Contributions
$23,550
Small Dollar %
55.8%
Burn Rate
76.4%
Net IE Advantage
+$3.6M
Sage (D)
Total Raised
$1,432,562
Cash on Hand
$102
Disbursements
$1,432,460
Individual Contributions
$1,397,235
PAC Contributions
$7,800
Small Dollar %
70.9%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Norris (D)
Total Raised
$363,563
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$363,563
Individual Contributions
$351,418
PAC Contributions
$4,000
Small Dollar %
24.2%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Carlin (R)
Total Raised
$247,184
Cash on Hand
$32,414
Disbursements
$214,770
Individual Contributions
$94,811
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
37.4%
Burn Rate
86.9%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Scholten (D)
Total Raised
$213,415
Cash on Hand
$8,144
Disbursements
$205,271
Individual Contributions
$199,410
PAC Contributions
$11,005
Small Dollar %
37.8%
Burn Rate
96.2%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — Iowa
Partisan Lean R+12
↘ Trending R+10

IA has a partisan lean of R+12. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 10 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+18).

Presidential Results
2020 R+8.2
2016 R+9.4
2012 D+5.8
2008 D+9.5
2004 R+0.7
Senate Results
2020 R+6.5
2016 R+24.4
2014 R+8.3
2010 R+31.1