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Senate · Iowa · General Election

Iowa Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Nov 01, 2026 06:45 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$41.0M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$726.9M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$1.0B
22 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Voter Registration
REP
R+170,000 (8.4%) (GOP gaining 34,000 registration edge since 2024-11)
Expert Ratings
REP
Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R
📈 Arenholz: Net IE: +440K
📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 34,000 registration edge since 2024-11
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
WINSENATE
Opposing Arenholz
$239.0M
Opposing Arenholz
$97.2M
Opposing Turek
$91.1M
LOWER COSTS NOW
Opposing Turek
$42.0M
Opposing Turek
$27.0M
AB PAC
Opposing Arenholz
$26.0M
FIGHT ON IOWA
Opposing Arenholz
$21.4M
FIGHT ON IOWA
Opposing Turek
$16.8M
WINSENATE
Opposing Turek
$10.3M
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
42%
DEM Price
→ +2.4% 7d
58%
REP Price
→ +2.6% 7d
$1.9M
Total Volume
24h: $532K
0.7%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: -1.2% 30d REP: +3.5%
DEM 42% 46%44%42% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
REP 58% 58%56%54% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $12.5M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $1.0B in campaign spending in this race.
22
Corporate Clients
$12.5M
Lobbying Spend
$1.0B
Campaign Spending
124
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 💰 Finance & Banking 🤖 Tech & AI
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 🏭
$5.0M
$50.7M
ARENHOLZ
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$3.3M
$50.7M
ARENHOLZ
NOTARIZE, INC. DBA PROOF.COM 🛡️ 🤖 💰
$820K
$50.7M
ARENHOLZ
REPRODUCTIVE FREEDOM FOR ALL 🛡️ 🏥 💰
$770K
$101K
LAEHN
VOTEVETS ACTION FUND, INC. 🛡️ 🏥
$501K
$27.0M
TUREK
PAYWARD, INC. DBA KRAKEN 💰
$390K
$50.7M
ARENHOLZ
CHATTEM, INC. DBA OPELLA 🏥 🏭 💰
$360K
$50.7M
ARENHOLZ
ZESTFINANCE, INC. DBA ZEST AI 💰
$270K
$50.7M
ARENHOLZ
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
ARENHOLZ (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
MARQUIS MANAGEMENT
$30K (12)
MIDAMERICAN AEROSPACE
$27K (8)
BLACKSTONE
$23K (10)
FAHR BEVERAGE
$22K (7)
CORNERSTONE GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS
$18K (13)
UNIVERSAL INDUSTRIES
$18K (8)
S-3 GROUP
$17K (7)
ENTREPRENEUR
$15K (12)
AMWAY
$14K (6)
ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
$14K (5)
WAHLS (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA
$48K (114)
TAWANI ENTERPRISES
$10K (3)
PRINCETON UNIVERSITY
$10K (17)
THE SCOTT FOUNDATION
$7K (4)
MICROSOFT LOBBY+DONATE
$7K (3)
UNITED THERAPEUTICS
$7K (3)
VETERANS AFFAIRS HEALTH ADMINISTRATION
$7K (2)
COGNATE CONSULTING
$7K (7)
EDWARD SNOWDON JR.
$7K (2)
REPLACEMENTS, LTD.
$7K (2)
ERNST (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (3 also lobby Congress)
US AI
$13K (5)
APOLLO
$11K (5)
EDWARD C. LEVY
$7K (26)
AUDAX
$7K (3)
HUNT COMPANIES
$7K (2)
ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
$7K (3)
NEW MOUNTAIN CAPITAL
$7K (2)
APOLLO GLOBAL MANAGEMENT
$7K (3)
MOUNTAIRE
$7K (3)
PIVOTAL VENTURES
$7K (3)
TUREK (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
STUART TINLEY LAW FIRM
$8K (3)
SIMONSON & ASSOC
$7K (5)
STATE OF IOWA
$7K (10)
ROGER WEITZ CONSULTING
$7K (2)
JMB
$7K (2)
HEARTLAND PROPERTIES
$7K (2)
ALSOP LOUIE PARTNERS
$7K (2)
WEITZ FAMILY FOUNDATION
$7K (2)
ANB
$6K (2)
JANE STREET
$6K (2)
SAGE (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
CUNY
$14K (4)
MINNEAPOLIS RADIATION ONCOLOGY
$7K (2)
MICROSOFT LOBBY+DONATE
$4K (1)
ICSI
$4K (2)
FIGHT
$3K (3)
FIGHT AGENCY
$3K (2)
LIMINALITY CAPITAL
$2K (1)
LAND IQ
$2K (9)
USPS
$2K (1)
INTELLIGENT COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS
$2K (7)
NORRIS (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
ARTICULATE
$4K (1)
MEHLMAN CONSULTING
$4K (1)
2U
$4K (1)
HILLIS ELEMENTARY DMPS
$4K (1)
ITC HOLDINGS
$4K (1)
GOOGLE
$4K (3)
BACKUS CONSULTING
$2K (1)
JASPER ADVISORS
$2K (1)
FGS GLOBAL
$2K (1)
RENEWABLE FUELS ASSOCIATION
$2K (1)
CARLIN (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups
SOLID ROCK CHURCH
$260 (1)
FERGUSON DRONE SERVICE
$250 (1)
STATE OF IOWA
$200 (1)
VERIDIAN CREDIT UNION
$175 (4)
SCHOLTEN (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)
HAGENS BERMAN
$10K (3)
COLUMBIA LAW SCHOOL
$7K (2)
GOOGLE
$4K (3)
STATE OF CALIFORNIA
$4K (3)
THE HOWARD HUGHES
$4K (1)
MIKE LUX MEDIA
$2K (2)
AVERY BROS SIGN COMPANY
$2K (1)
CHRIS NUCKOLS
$2K (1)
FRIED FRANK HARRIS SHRIVER & JACOBSON
$1K (1)
ENTREPRENEURIAL TECHNOLOGIES
$1K (1)
🔀 9 SPLIT DONORS — Employers whose staff donate to both sides
UNIVERSITY OF IOWA: WAHLS $48,152 / TUREK $2,600. ELLIOTT INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT: ARENHOLZ $14,000 / ERNST $7,000. JANE STREET: ARENHOLZ $14,000 / TUREK $5,722.
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$14.1B
Total Awards
35%
Defense ($1.1B)
3,145,711
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Ammunition (except Small Arms) · $899.0M Other Communications Equipment · $694.3M Radio and Television Broadcast · $410.0M Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $320.8M Search, Detection, Navigation, · $283.2M Engineering Services · $172.4M
Recipient Amount
IA DEPARTMENT OF HUMAN SERVICES
$10.8B
IOWA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
$1.6B
ROCKWELL COLLINS, INC.
$1.0B
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION IOWA
$864.3M
DATA LINK SOLUTIONS LLC
$583.5M
IOWA DEPARTMENT MANAGEMENT
$418.4M
ROCKWELL COLLINS, INC.
$357.2M
IOWA DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES
$344.1M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Turek (D)
—
$24.3M
$3.1M
40%
87%
$88.0M
$130.0M
Arenholz (R)
—
$14.1M
$2.2M
21%
98%
$87.0M
$420.9M
Sage (D)
—
$1.4M
$9
71%
100%
—
—
Carlin (R)
—
$494K
$5K
40%
99%
—
—
Norris (D)
—
$364K
—
24%
100%
—
—
Scholten (D)
—
$213K
$8K
38%
96%
—
—
Laehn (L)
—
$61K
$9K
19%
109%
$931K
$101K
Financial Breakdown
Turek (D)
Total Raised
$24,290,521
Cash on Hand
$3,072,851
Disbursements
$21,217,670
Individual Contributions
$21,987,600
PAC Contributions
$576,455
Small Dollar %
40.1%
Burn Rate
87.3%
Net IE Advantage
$-42.0M
Arenholz (R)
Total Raised
$14,147,973
Cash on Hand
$2,172,989
Disbursements
$13,903,059
Individual Contributions
$7,514,764
PAC Contributions
$2,659,800
Small Dollar %
20.7%
Burn Rate
98.3%
Net IE Advantage
$-333.9M
Sage (D)
Total Raised
$1,433,544
Cash on Hand
$9
Disbursements
$1,433,535
Individual Contributions
$1,397,235
PAC Contributions
$7,800
Small Dollar %
70.9%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Carlin (R)
Total Raised
$494,420
Cash on Hand
$5,266
Disbursements
$489,154
Individual Contributions
$137,059
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
39.8%
Burn Rate
98.9%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Norris (D)
Total Raised
$363,563
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$363,563
Individual Contributions
$351,418
PAC Contributions
$4,000
Small Dollar %
24.2%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Scholten (D)
Total Raised
$213,415
Cash on Hand
$8,144
Disbursements
$205,271
Individual Contributions
$199,410
PAC Contributions
$11,005
Small Dollar %
37.8%
Burn Rate
96.2%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Laehn (L)
Total Raised
$61,146
Cash on Hand
$9,035
Disbursements
$66,668
Individual Contributions
$60,950
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
18.9%
Burn Rate
109.0%
Net IE Advantage
+$829K
📜 Historical Context — Iowa
Partisan Lean R+12
↘ Trending R+10

IA has a partisan lean of R+12. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 10 points in recent elections. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+18).

Presidential Results
2020 R+8.2
2016 R+9.4
2012 D+5.8
2008 D+9.5
2004 R+0.7
Senate Results
2020 R+6.5
2016 R+24.4
2014 R+8.3
2010 R+31.1