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House · Arizona · General Election

Arizona 2nd

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: July 21, 2026
Last updated: Apr 25, 2026 04:48 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$7.4M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$24K
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$102K
18 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Voter Registration
REP
R+160,000 (3.7%) (GOP gaining 62,000 registration edge since 2024-11)
📈 Grijalva: Net IE: +738K
📈 Hernandez: Net IE: +85K
📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 62,000 registration edge since 2024-11
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
Supporting Grijalva
$436K
Supporting Grijalva
$424K
Supporting Grijalva
$404K
Supporting Grijalva
$160K
LCV VICTORY FUND
Supporting Grijalva
$120K
Supporting Crane
$21K
YOUTH SAVE DEMOCRACY PAC
Opposing Ciscomani
$13K
Supporting Crane
$11K
Supporting Crane
$10K
Supporting Crane
$8K
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $9.7M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $102K in campaign spending in this race.
18
Corporate Clients
$9.7M
Lobbying Spend
$102K
Campaign Spending
71
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security ⚡ Energy & Utilities 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing 💰 Finance & Banking
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
BP AMERICA, INC ⚡ 🏭 🛡️
$7.3M
$1K
CISCOMANI
CJ AMERICA, INC.
$500K
$1K
CISCOMANI
INVEST IN UNITED STATES OF AMERICA (IIUSA)
$310K
$4K
NEZ
UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS AND JOINERS OF AMERICA 🛡️ 💰 🏥
$280K
$4K
NEZ
WESTERN STATES REGIONAL COUNCIL OF CARPENTERS
$255K
$4K
NEZ
UNITED BROTHERHOOD OF CARPENTERS ⚡ 🏭
$216K
$4K
NEZ
ATI, INC.
$210K
$4K
NEZ
CONCERNED WOMEN FOR AMERICA LEGISLATIVE ACTION COMMITTEE
$192K
$4K
NEZ
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
CRANE (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
ENTREPRENEUR
$16K (5)
WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
$14K (4)
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES
$14K (4)
STANDARD INDUSTRIES
$7K (2)
STATION CASINOS
$7K (2)
DOBBS BROTHERS MANAGEMENT
$7K (7)
BOOK CAPITAL ENTERPRISES
$7K (4)
DANIELS MANUFACTURING CORP
$7K (2)
SILVER VENTURES
$7K (2)
INTERACTIVE BROKERS
$7K (2)
CISCOMANI (REPUBLICAN PARTY) Top employer groups
HSL PROPERTIES
$29K (11)
COX ENTERPRISES
$23K (18)
ENTREPRENEUR
$21K (7)
COTTONWOOD PROPERTIES
$14K (5)
WINDMILL WINERY
$14K (5)
HYDRONALIX
$14K (4)
STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES
$14K (4)
WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT
$14K (4)
JIM CLICK AUTOMOTIVE
$14K (4)
EDISON CHOUEST OFFSHORE
$14K (4)
MENDOZA (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
NO EMPLOYER
$48K (25)
SCHUSTERMAN INTERESTS
$7K (3)
BROWN BROTHERS HARRIMAN
$7K (5)
TAWANI ENTERPRISES
$7K (5)
CAL ARTS
$7K (3)
THE ANALYSIS GROUP
$7K (3)
SI
$7K (3)
MINNEAPOLIS RADIATION ONCOLOGY
$7K (3)
NEW VILLAGES GROUP
$7K (4)
LIFEYIELD
$7K (3)
TREBLE (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (3 also lobby Congress)
GREAT NORTH VENTURES
$14K (8)
WITHME
$14K (15)
NATIONAL LIABILITY AND FIRE
$7K (5)
KAY & ASSOCIATES
$7K (2)
KEETON PUBLIC RELATIONS
$7K (2)
CAROPRESE & COMPANY
$7K (3)
HEINZ & ASSOCIATES
$7K (3)
ECOFI
$7K (2)
CENTURY 21 CONCEPT 100
$7K (3)
HOMEE
$7K (4)
GRIJALVA (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (2 also lobby Congress)
PIMA COUNTY
$15K (51)
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
$10K (31)
NEXXUS CONSULTING
$7K (5)
PERRY, WHITE, ROSS AND JACOBSON
$5K (2)
CITY OF TUCSON
$5K (15)
WITHME
$4K (2)
HERRERA ARELLANO
$4K (3)
AT&T
$4K (3)
D&P CREATIVE STRATEGIES
$4K (4)
DWE MANAGEMENT
$4K (12)
STANTON (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)
ARIZONA PUBLIC SERVICE
$9K (4)
CRESCENT CROWN DISTRIBUTING
$8K (4)
PERKINS COIE
$8K (4)
TAN HUCA
$7K (11)
LINCOLN INSTITUTE OF LAND POLICY
$7K (2)
RMB III CONSULTANCY
$7K (2)
LAW OFFICE OF JOSEPH C TANN PLLC
$7K (2)
GPW
$7K (2)
SNELL & WILMER L.L.P.
$7K (4)
VLC ENTERPRISE
$7K (2)
NEZ (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups
JANESTREET
$7K (3)
MASS GENERAL HOSPITAL
$7K (3)
PHYSICIANS COMMITTEE FOR RESPONSIBLE M
$7K (3)
THE TOWNE LAW FIRM
$7K (3)
SCHUSTERMAN INTERESTS
$7K (3)
SI
$7K (3)
ANTELOPE CANYON TOURS
$7K (3)
Q PRIME
$7K (3)
INTRAFI
$6K (3)
LVPG
$5K (3)
HERNANDEZ (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (4 also lobby Congress)
VERIDUS
$8K (15)
PACHULSKI, STANG, ZIEHL & JONES
$7K (2)
STATE OF AZ
$4K (2)
ARIZONA COMMUNITY PHYSICIANS
$4K (3)
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
$4K (2)
STATE OF ARIZONA
$4K (6)
CORNERSTONE PUBLIC AFFAIRS
$4K (2)
HENSLEY BEVERAGE
$4K (4)
MESA PUBLIC SCHOOLS
$4K (1)
BESHERT
$4K (1)
🔀 12 SPLIT DONORS — Employers whose staff donate to both sides
ENTREPRENEUR: CRANE $15,637 / CISCOMANI $21,345. WINKLEVOSS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT: CRANE $14,000 / CISCOMANI $14,000. STARKEY HEARING TECHNOLOGIES: CRANE $14,000 / CISCOMANI $14,000.
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (CD-02)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$51.9B
Total Awards
24%
Defense ($105.9M)
7,016,270
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Commercial and Institutional B · $122.7M Temporary Help Services · $77.2M Security Guards and Patrol Ser · $53.2M Water and Sewer Line and Relat · $50.7M Research and Development in th · $37.9M Pharmaceutical Preparation Man · $28.3M
Recipient Amount
NORTHERN ARIZONA UNIVERSITY
$52.4M
CHINLE UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT #24
$50.0M
SAN CARLOS APACHE TRIBAL COUNCIL
$43.6M
GILA RIVER INDIAN COMMUNITY
$41.8M
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTERGOVERNMENTAL PUBLI
$40.2M
CITY OF FLAGSTAFF
$39.5M
WHITERIVER UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT 20
$34.6M
KATALYST SPACE TECHNOLOGIES, LLC
$33.6M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Ciscomani (R)
$5.1M
$3.8M
22%
29%
$20K
Nez (D)
$2.3M
$1.4M
49%
43%
$4K
Financial Breakdown
Ciscomani (R)
Total Raised
$5,083,547
Cash on Hand
$3,831,731
Disbursements
$1,488,377
Individual Contributions
$1,771,665
PAC Contributions
$1,398,410
Small Dollar %
22.1%
Burn Rate
29.3%
Net IE Advantage
$-20K
Nez (D)
Total Raised
$2,341,970
Cash on Hand
$1,396,101
Disbursements
$1,011,172
Individual Contributions
$2,146,664
PAC Contributions
$137,500
Small Dollar %
49.3%
Burn Rate
43.2%
Net IE Advantage
+$4K
📜 Historical Context — Arizona
Partisan Lean R+28
↗ Trending D+22

AZ has a partisan lean of R+28. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 22 points in recent elections. Senate races have been split 2-2 in the last 4 elections.

Presidential Results
2020 D+0.3
2016 R+48.7
2012 R+9.1
2008 R+8.5
2004 R+10.5
Senate Results
2020 (special) R+0.0
2018 D+2.4
2016 D+40.7
2012 R+3.0