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Governor · California · General Election

California Governor

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: June 2, 2026
C: Safe D S: Safe D I: Safe D
Last updated: Apr 24, 2026 04:46 AM
Poll Leader
Hilton +2.5
7 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$0
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$0
Independent expenditures
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
41%
DEM Price
-34.4% 7d
100%
REP Price
0.0% 7d
$13.2M
Total Volume
24h: $350K
6.7%
Volatility
High
30d DEM: +213.1% 30d REP: +0.1%
DEM 41% 70%38%7% Mar 24Apr 06Apr 24
REP 100% 100%100%100% Mar 24Apr 02Apr 24
Spread: 0.4% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🔴
Strong Divergence
Market 13¢ below polls
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: REP 100%
🔵 0 DEM whales ($0)  ·  🔴 10 REP whales ($303K)
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
0xa5ef...2966
REP
$119K
caviaro
REP
$38K
0x2578...b2a6
REP
$37K
angelisland
REP
$33K
jk-42069
REP
$24K
Protrad
REP
$21K
snols
REP
$18K
Chungvicular
REP
$14K
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$207.1B
Total Awards
57%
Defense ($28.7B)
39,536,653
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Research and Development in th · $11.0B Research and Development in th · $9.0B Aircraft Manufacturing · $5.8B Commercial and Institutional B · $5.0B Engineering Services · $4.8B Ship Building and Repairing · $4.1B
Recipient Amount
HEALTH CARE SERVICES, CALIFORNIA DEPARTM
$171.8B
DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL SERVICES CALIFORNIA
$14.0B
DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION CALIFORNIA
$11.6B
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION CALIFORNIA
$9.1B
LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL SECURITY, LL
$6.4B
OFFICE OF EMERGENCY SERVICES
$6.2B
SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP.
$3.4B
QTC MEDICAL SERVICES INC
$3.4B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Hilton (R)
17.3%
Steyer (D)
14.8%
Swalwell (D)
13.3%
Bianco (R)
13.0%
Porter (D)
10.3%
Becerra (D)
6.0%
Other
11.1%
📜 Historical Context — California
Partisan Lean D+26
↗ Trending D+4

CA has a partisan lean of D+26. The state has shifted toward Democrats by 4 points in recent elections. Democrats won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin D+30).

Presidential Results
2020 D+29.2
2016 D+30.1
2012 D+23.1
2008 D+24.0
2004 D+9.9
Senate Results
2018 D+45.8
2016 D+38.4
2012 D+25.0
2010 D+10.0