📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: August 18, 2026
C: Likely RS: Likely RS: Likely RI: Likely R
Last updated: Apr 15, 2026 05:07 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$0
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$0
Independent expenditures
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal AlignmentREP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $6.8M (raised + IE)
Voter Registration
REP
R+735,000 (5.1%) (GOP gaining 875,000 registration edge since 2020-11)
Expert Ratings
REP
Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R
📈 Moody: Net IE: +920K
📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 875,000 registration edge since 2020-11
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
22%
DEM Price
→+79.2%7d
84%
REP Price
↑-4.0%7d
$34K
Total Volume
24h: $444
5.1%
Volatility
High
30d DEM: +2.4%30d REP: +6.3%
Spread: 1.0%Bid: 0.00Ask: 0.00Liquidity: Tight
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Moody (GOP)Top employer groups(3 also lobby Congress)
THE VILLAGES
$80K (29)
HOLLAND KNIGHT
$62K (57)
RDV
$46K (14)
FULL SAIL UNIVERSITY
$35K (10)
BLACKSTONE
$34K (12)
NEXTERA ENERGYLOBBY+DONATE
$29K (21)
MILLER STRATEGIES
$26K (17)
BALLARD PARTNERS
$23K (15)
T+D CONCRETE
$21K (6)
PEZESHKAN HOLDINGS
$21K (12)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$137.3B
Total Awards
56%
Defense ($12.8B)
20,984,400
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $6.9B
Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $3.1B
Engineering Services · $2.8B
Offices of Physicians (except · $2.6B
Commercial and Institutional B · $1.8B
Computer Systems Design Servic · $1.4B
RecipientAmount
FLORIDA AGENCY FOR HEALTH CARE ADMINISTR
$37.1B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$6.6B
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
$4.8B
STATE OF FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY M
$4.8B
STATE OF FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT
$3.2B
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
$2.9B
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CONSUMER SER
$2.8B
LOYAL SOURCE GOVERNMENT SERVICES LLC
$2.7B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Moody (R)
—
—
—
—
—
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📜 Historical Context — Florida
Partisan LeanR+6
↘ Trending R+4
FL has a partisan lean of R+6. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 4 points in recent elections. Republicans won 3 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+6).