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Senate · Florida · General Election

Florida Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: August 18, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Aug 03, 2026 10:40 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$42.2M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$3.3M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$6.3M
17 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $6.8M (raised + IE)
Voter Registration
REP
R+735,000 (5.1%) (GOP gaining 875,000 registration edge since 2020-11)
Expert Ratings
REP
Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R
📈 Moody: Net IE: +920K
📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 875,000 registration edge since 2020-11
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
Supporting Moody
$1.5M
Supporting Moody
$993K
Supporting Moody
$324K
Supporting Moody
$188K
BLUE BATTLEGROUND PROJECT
Supporting Vindman
$3K
BLUE MAJORITY PROJECT
Supporting Vindman
$1K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
10%
DEM Price
-8.7% 7d
90%
REP Price
+1.1% 7d
$63K
Total Volume
24h: $279
2.8%
Volatility
Med
30d DEM: -38.2% 30d REP: +7.8%
DEM 10% 17%12%6% Jul 02Jul 18Aug 02
REP 90% 94%88%83% Jul 02Jul 18Aug 02
Spread: 3.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Normal
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $9.0M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $6.3M in campaign spending in this race.
17
Corporate Clients
$9.0M
Lobbying Spend
$6.3M
Campaign Spending
67
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 🛡️ Defense & Security 💰 Finance & Banking ⚡ Energy & Utilities
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
BP AMERICA INC. ⚡ 🏭 🛡️
$7.4M
$330K
Moody
CJ AMERICA, INC.
$500K
$330K
Moody
FEDERAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS ASSOCIATION 🛡️ 💰 🏥
$240K
$330K
Moody
ATI, INC.
$230K
$994K
Moody
Y 🏥
$180K
$1K
VINDMAN
SAFER FOUNDATION 🏥
$130K
$330K
Moody
NATIONAL LAW ENFORCEMENT FOUNDATION
$130K
$330K
Moody
NATIONAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS MEMORIAL FUND
$90K
$330K
Moody
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Moody (GOP) Top employer groups (3 also lobby Congress)
THE VILLAGES
$80K (29)
HOLLAND KNIGHT
$62K (57)
RDV
$46K (14)
FULL SAIL UNIVERSITY
$35K (10)
BLACKSTONE
$34K (12)
NEXTERA ENERGY LOBBY+DONATE
$29K (21)
MILLER STRATEGIES
$26K (17)
BALLARD PARTNERS
$23K (15)
T+D CONCRETE
$21K (6)
PEZESHKAN HOLDINGS
$21K (12)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$137.3B
Total Awards
56%
Defense ($12.8B)
20,984,400
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $6.9B Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $3.1B Engineering Services · $2.8B Offices of Physicians (except · $2.6B Commercial and Institutional B · $1.8B Computer Systems Design Servic · $1.4B
Recipient Amount
FLORIDA AGENCY FOR HEALTH CARE ADMINISTR
$37.1B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$6.6B
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
$4.8B
STATE OF FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY M
$4.8B
STATE OF FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT
$3.2B
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
$2.9B
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CONSUMER SER
$2.8B
LOYAL SOURCE GOVERNMENT SERVICES LLC
$2.7B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Weil (D)
$15.9M
75%
100%
Vindman (D)
$14.6M
$7.3M
63%
50%
$4K
Moody (R)
$10.8M
$8.4M
30%
22%
$3.1M
$188K
Mujica (D)
$857K
$11K
21%
99%
Nixon (D)
Financial Breakdown
Weil (D)
Total Raised
$15,933,478
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$15,933,478
Individual Contributions
$15,463,011
PAC Contributions
$33,908
Small Dollar %
74.7%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Vindman (D)
Total Raised
$14,595,387
Cash on Hand
$7,307,305
Disbursements
$7,288,082
Individual Contributions
$14,297,916
PAC Contributions
$215,050
Small Dollar %
62.7%
Burn Rate
49.9%
Net IE Advantage
+$4K
Moody (R)
Total Raised
$10,802,230
Cash on Hand
$8,421,236
Disbursements
$2,380,993
Individual Contributions
$4,529,858
PAC Contributions
$1,977,500
Small Dollar %
30.5%
Burn Rate
22.0%
Net IE Advantage
+$3.0M
Mujica (D)
Total Raised
$856,667
Cash on Hand
$10,756
Disbursements
$845,911
Individual Contributions
$647,044
PAC Contributions
$500
Small Dollar %
20.8%
Burn Rate
98.7%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — Florida
Partisan Lean R+6
↘ Trending R+4

FL has a partisan lean of R+6. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 4 points in recent elections. Republicans won 3 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+6).

Presidential Results
2020 R+3.3
2016 R+1.2
2012 D+0.9
2008 D+2.8
2004 R+5.0
Senate Results
2018 R+0.2
2016 R+7.7
2012 D+13.0
2010 R+28.7