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Senate · Florida · General Election

Florida Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: August 18, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Jul 01, 2026 12:51 AM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$33.7M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$3.1M
Independent expenditures
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $6.8M (raised + IE)
Voter Registration
REP
R+735,000 (5.1%) (GOP gaining 875,000 registration edge since 2020-11)
Expert Ratings
REP
Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R
📈 Moody: Net IE: +920K
📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 875,000 registration edge since 2020-11
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
Supporting Moody
$1.4M
Supporting Moody
$951K
Supporting Moody
$291K
Supporting Moody
$188K
BLUE BATTLEGROUND PROJECT
Supporting Vindman
$3K
BLUE MAJORITY PROJECT
Supporting Vindman
$1K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
18%
DEM Price
0.0% 7d
83%
REP Price
+2.5% 7d
$42K
Total Volume
24h: $0
0.9%
Volatility
Low
30d DEM: -2.6% 30d REP: +1.8%
DEM 18% 20%18%16% May 29Jun 14Jun 29
REP 83% 84%82%80% May 29Jun 14Jun 29
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Moody (GOP) Top employer groups (3 also lobby Congress)
THE VILLAGES
$80K (29)
HOLLAND KNIGHT
$62K (57)
RDV
$46K (14)
FULL SAIL UNIVERSITY
$35K (10)
BLACKSTONE
$34K (12)
NEXTERA ENERGY LOBBY+DONATE
$29K (21)
MILLER STRATEGIES
$26K (17)
BALLARD PARTNERS
$23K (15)
T+D CONCRETE
$21K (6)
PEZESHKAN HOLDINGS
$21K (12)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$137.3B
Total Awards
56%
Defense ($12.8B)
20,984,400
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $6.9B Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $3.1B Engineering Services · $2.8B Offices of Physicians (except · $2.6B Commercial and Institutional B · $1.8B Computer Systems Design Servic · $1.4B
Recipient Amount
FLORIDA AGENCY FOR HEALTH CARE ADMINISTR
$37.1B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$6.6B
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
$4.8B
STATE OF FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY M
$4.8B
STATE OF FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT
$3.2B
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
$2.9B
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CONSUMER SER
$2.8B
LOYAL SOURCE GOVERNMENT SERVICES LLC
$2.7B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Weil (D)
$15.9M
75%
100%
Moody (R)
$8.4M
$7.1M
27%
15%
$2.9M
$188K
Vindman (D)
$8.2M
$6.4M
63%
21%
$4K
Mujica (D)
$717K
$80K
21%
89%
Nixon (D)
$294K
$178K
37%
7%
Grayson (D)
$178K
$126K
53%
100%
Financial Breakdown
Weil (D)
Total Raised
$15,933,478
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$15,933,478
Individual Contributions
$15,463,011
PAC Contributions
$33,908
Small Dollar %
74.7%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Moody (R)
Total Raised
$8,407,064
Cash on Hand
$7,129,392
Disbursements
$1,277,672
Individual Contributions
$2,748,661
PAC Contributions
$1,504,500
Small Dollar %
27.0%
Burn Rate
15.2%
Net IE Advantage
+$2.7M
Vindman (D)
Total Raised
$8,188,392
Cash on Hand
$6,440,222
Disbursements
$1,748,269
Individual Contributions
$8,021,892
PAC Contributions
$166,050
Small Dollar %
62.6%
Burn Rate
21.4%
Net IE Advantage
+$4K
Mujica (D)
Total Raised
$717,348
Cash on Hand
$80,070
Disbursements
$637,278
Individual Contributions
$644,003
PAC Contributions
$500
Small Dollar %
20.6%
Burn Rate
88.8%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Nixon (D)
Total Raised
$293,584
Cash on Hand
$177,595
Disbursements
$20,957
Individual Contributions
$293,584
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
37.0%
Burn Rate
7.1%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Grayson (D)
Total Raised
$178,052
Cash on Hand
$126,388
Disbursements
$178,582
Individual Contributions
$29,992
PAC Contributions
$5,000
Small Dollar %
53.4%
Burn Rate
100.3%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — Florida
Partisan Lean R+6
↘ Trending R+4

FL has a partisan lean of R+6. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 4 points in recent elections. Republicans won 3 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+6).

Presidential Results
2020 R+3.3
2016 R+1.2
2012 D+0.9
2008 D+2.8
2004 R+5.0
Senate Results
2018 R+0.2
2016 R+7.7
2012 D+13.0
2010 R+28.7