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Senate · Florida · General Election

Florida Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Nov 01, 2026 06:45 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$63.1M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$63.7M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$57.1M
16 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Money
REP
DEM $0.0M / REP $6.8M (raised + IE)
Voter Registration
REP
R+735,000 (5.1%) (GOP gaining 875,000 registration edge since 2020-11)
Expert Ratings
REP
Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R
📈 Moody: Net IE: +920K
📈 REP candidates: GOP gaining 875,000 registration edge since 2020-11
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
STRONGER SAFER NATION
Opposing Nixon
$20.7M
NEW DEAL FOR ALL, INC.
Supporting Moody
$12.4M
STRONGER SAFER NATION
Supporting Moody
$11.8M
AB PAC
Opposing Nixon
$5.2M
TD PAC
Opposing Nixon
$2.4M
SLF PAC
Supporting Moody
$2.1M
SENATE CONSERVATIVES FUND
Supporting Moody
$1.6M
PROGRESSIVE TURNOUT PROJECT
Opposing Nixon
$1.3M
BLACK VOTERS MATTER ACTION PAC
Supporting Moody
$1.0M
NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION
Opposing Nixon
$645K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
10%
DEM Price
→ +11.8% 7d
90%
REP Price
→ -1.1% 7d
$597K
Total Volume
24h: $59K
2.6%
Volatility
Med
30d DEM: +11.8% 30d REP: -1.1%
DEM 10% 10%9%8% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
REP 90% 92%91%90% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $5.8M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $57.1M in campaign spending in this race.
16
Corporate Clients
$5.8M
Lobbying Spend
$57.1M
Campaign Spending
52
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🛡️ Defense & Security 🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 🤖 Tech & AI 🏭 Trade & Manufacturing
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
NATIONAL NURSES UNITED 🤖 🏥 🏭
$1.6M
$645K
NIXON
AMERICAN NURSES ASSOCIATION 🏥 🛡️ 🤖
$1.5M
$645K
NIXON
GENERAL MATTER INC 🏭 ⚡ 🛡️
$1.2M
$1.0M
Moody
ATI INC. 🛡️ 🏭
$250K
$1.6M
Moody
1 NATION, INC. 🛡️
$240K
$11.8M
Moody
Y 🏥
$210K
$1K
VINDMAN
STR
$180K
$11.8M
Moody
SAFER FOUNDATION 🏥
$160K
$11.8M
Moody
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
Moody (GOP) Top employer groups (3 also lobby Congress)
THE VILLAGES
$80K (29)
HOLLAND KNIGHT
$62K (57)
RDV
$46K (14)
FULL SAIL UNIVERSITY
$35K (10)
BLACKSTONE
$34K (12)
NEXTERA ENERGY LOBBY+DONATE
$29K (21)
MILLER STRATEGIES
$26K (17)
BALLARD PARTNERS
$23K (15)
T+D CONCRETE
$21K (6)
PEZESHKAN HOLDINGS
$21K (12)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$137.3B
Total Awards
56%
Defense ($12.8B)
20,984,400
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Guided Missile and Space Vehic · $6.9B Other Aircraft Parts and Auxil · $3.1B Engineering Services · $2.8B Offices of Physicians (except · $2.6B Commercial and Institutional B · $1.8B Computer Systems Design Servic · $1.4B
Recipient Amount
FLORIDA AGENCY FOR HEALTH CARE ADMINISTR
$37.1B
LOCKHEED MARTIN CORPORATION
$6.6B
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
$4.8B
STATE OF FLORIDA DIVISION OF EMERGENCY M
$4.8B
STATE OF FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT
$3.2B
FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
$2.9B
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE & CONSUMER SER
$2.8B
LOYAL SOURCE GOVERNMENT SERVICES LLC
$2.7B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Vindman (D)
—
$20.5M
$4.1M
63%
80%
$4K
—
Weil (D)
—
$15.9M
—
75%
100%
—
—
Moody (R)
—
$14.5M
$816K
30%
94%
$17.8M
$14.3M
Nixon (D)
—
$11.3M
$3.3M
64%
71%
$10.8M
$20.7M
Mujica (D)
—
$857K
$2K
21%
100%
—
—
Financial Breakdown
Vindman (D)
Total Raised
$20,487,916
Cash on Hand
$4,117,609
Disbursements
$16,370,307
Individual Contributions
$17,344,398
PAC Contributions
$217,050
Small Dollar %
62.8%
Burn Rate
79.9%
Net IE Advantage
+$4K
Weil (D)
Total Raised
$15,933,478
Cash on Hand
$0
Disbursements
$15,933,478
Individual Contributions
$15,463,011
PAC Contributions
$33,908
Small Dollar %
74.7%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Moody (R)
Total Raised
$14,524,032
Cash on Hand
$816,355
Disbursements
$13,707,677
Individual Contributions
$6,832,682
PAC Contributions
$2,404,500
Small Dollar %
30.4%
Burn Rate
94.4%
Net IE Advantage
+$3.5M
Nixon (D)
Total Raised
$11,319,380
Cash on Hand
$3,266,795
Disbursements
$8,052,586
Individual Contributions
$11,008,158
PAC Contributions
$218,222
Small Dollar %
64.0%
Burn Rate
71.1%
Net IE Advantage
$-9.9M
Mujica (D)
Total Raised
$856,667
Cash on Hand
$1,980
Disbursements
$854,687
Individual Contributions
$647,044
PAC Contributions
$500
Small Dollar %
20.8%
Burn Rate
99.8%
Net IE Advantage
$0
📜 Historical Context — Florida
Partisan Lean R+6
↘ Trending R+4

FL has a partisan lean of R+6. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 4 points in recent elections. Republicans won 3 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+6).

Presidential Results
2020 R+3.3
2016 R+1.2
2012 D+0.9
2008 D+2.8
2004 R+5.0
Senate Results
2018 R+0.2
2016 R+7.7
2012 D+13.0
2010 R+28.7