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Governor · Michigan · General Election

Michigan Governor

📅 General: November 3, 2026 · Primary: August 4, 2026
C: Lean D S: Lean D I: Lean D
Last updated: Apr 30, 2026 04:44 AM
Poll Leader
James +3.5
3 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$0
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$0
Independent expenditures
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
84%
DEM Price
→ +5.0% 7d
86%
REP Price
→ -1.7% 7d
$178K
Total Volume
24h: $20
3.1%
Volatility
Med
30d DEM: +5.0% 30d REP: +71.0%
DEM 84% 84%67%50% Mar 30Apr 15Apr 30
REP 86% 92%71%50% Apr 22Apr 26Apr 30
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🟢
Strong Divergence
Market 28¢ above polls
🐋 Whale Positions — Polymarket
Smart Money: REP 58%
🔵 3 DEM whales ($2K)  ·  🔴 3 REP whales ($2K) · 7 hedged wallets filtered
Trader
Side
Position
Entry → Current (P&L)
chromatose
REP
$904
—
WeJustBettin
DEM
$810
69¢ → 66¢ (-$25)
rocky42017
REP
$573
—
ImJustKen
DEM
$524
72¢ → 66¢ (-$47)
nicoco89
DEM
$464
31¢ → 66¢ (+$494)
Jpegpeddler
REP
$339
—
Directional positions only. Hedged wallets (holding both sides) are excluded. P&L derived from entry vs current price.
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$55.6B
Total Awards
44%
Defense ($2.9B)
9,962,311
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Military Armored Vehicle, Tank · $2.5B Automobile Manufacturing · $2.4B Motor Vehicle Transmission and · $312.9M Engineering Services · $258.2M Light Truck and Utility Vehicl · $252.4M Other Heavy and Civil Engineer · $247.1M
Recipient Amount
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN
$33.6B
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION
$3.1B
TRANSPORTATION, MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF
$2.4B
GENERAL DYNAMICS LAND SYSTEMS INC.
$2.1B
MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF LABOR AND ECONOMI
$2.0B
BAE SYSTEMS LAND AND ARMAMENTS L.P.
$1.3B
FCA US LLC
$1.3B
REGENTS OF THE UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN
$1.3B
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
James (R)
36.0%
—
—
—
—
—
—
Benson (D)
32.5%
—
—
—
—
—
—
Duggan (D)
20.5%
—
—
—
—
—
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📜 Historical Context — Michigan
Partisan Lean R+2
↘ Trending R+6

MI has a partisan lean of R+2. The state has shifted toward Republicans by 6 points in recent elections. Democrats won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin D+11).

Presidential Results
2020 D+2.8
2016 R+0.2
2012 D+9.5
2008 D+16.4
2004 D+3.4
Senate Results
2020 D+1.7
2018 D+6.5
2014 D+13.3
2012 D+20.8