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Senate · Montana · General Election

Montana Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026
C: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R
Last updated: Nov 01, 2026 06:45 PM
Poll Leader
No polls
0 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$8.7M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$50.5M
Independent expenditures
Corporate Influence
$782.1M
98 lobbying clients
🧠 Race Intelligence
Safe R
Signal Alignment REP at 100%
Data Signals
Expert Ratings
REP
Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
INDEPENDENT PAC
Supporting Bodnar
$14.1M
MONTANA FREEDOM PAC
Supporting Bodnar
$11.5M
MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT
Supporting Bodnar
$5.9M
PROGRESSIVE VET PAC
Supporting Bankhead
$5.5M
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC
Supporting Alme
$4.8M
MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT
Opposing Neill
$2.2M
MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT
Supporting Bankhead
$2.0M
MONTANA FREEDOM PAC
Supporting Alme
$1.5M
AMERICAN MISSION
Supporting Alme
$783K
HIGH PLAINS PAC
Supporting Alme
$515K
📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket
10%
DEM Price
→ +18.8% 7d
100%
REP Price
→ +0.1% 7d
$379K
Total Volume
24h: $30K
3.0%
Volatility
Med
30d DEM: +11.8% 30d REP: +0.4%
DEM 10% 14%10%6% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
REP 100% 100%100%99% Oct 01Oct 16Nov 01
Spread: 1.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Tight
🏛️ Corporate Influence Pipeline
Companies spending $52.8M lobbying Congress are simultaneously directing $782.1M in campaign spending in this race.
98
Corporate Clients
$52.8M
Lobbying Spend
$782.1M
Campaign Spending
371
Lobbyists
Lobbying Issues Connected to This Race
🏥 Healthcare & Pharma 🛡️ Defense & Security 💰 Finance & Banking ⚡ Energy & Utilities
Company Lobbying $ Campaign $ Candidate
NFIB (NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS) 💰 🏭 🏥
$11.7M
$14.1M
BODNAR
INDEPENDENT COMMUNITY BANKERS OF AMERICA 🛡️ 🏥 💰
$11.0M
$14.1M
BODNAR
AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY 🛡️ 🤖 🏭
$5.0M
$4.8M
ALME
SB GROUP US, INC. DBA SOFTBANK GROUP US, INC. 🤖 ⚡ 🛡️
$3.3M
$4.8M
ALME
OWNER-OPERATOR INDEPENDENT DRIVERS ASSOCIATION 🛡️ 🤖 🏥
$2.1M
$14.1M
BODNAR
INDEPENDENT INSURANCE AGENTS & BROKERS OF AMERICA 🏥 💰
$1.5M
$14.1M
BODNAR
CARESOURCE MISSION 🏥 💰 🛡️
$1.4M
$783K
ALME
NATIONAL ASSN OF INDEPENDENT COLLEGES & UNIVERSITIES 💰 ⚡ 🏥
$1.4M
$14.1M
BODNAR
Source: Senate LDA filings + FEC data via Hammerhead Intelligence. Lobbying $ = annual reported federal lobbying expenditures (company-wide). Campaign $ = IE spending directed at candidates in this specific race.
🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A
Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.
NEILL (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)
CERBERUS
$4K (1)
JACKSON BUILDING SOLUTIONS
$3K (1)
PHYSICIAN
$2K (1)
UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA
$1K (1)
PFIZER LOBBY+DONATE
$1K (1)
PORSCHE DRIVER
$500 (1)
UNITED COUNTRY YELLOWSTONE
$500 (1)
LITTLE GREEN LIGHT
$500 (1)
UC DAVIS
$500 (1)
FIRST TENNESSEE BANK
$500 (1)
Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence
Federal Spending Context (statewide)
Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov
$5.7B
Total Awards
10%
Defense ($107.7M)
1,050,493
Population
Top Industries & Recipients ▾
Commercial and Institutional B · $365.2M Nonscheduled Chartered Freight · $186.0M Electronic and Precision Equip · $109.4M Highway, Street, and Bridge Co · $101.0M Engineering Services · $76.8M Support Activities for Forestr · $61.5M
Recipient Amount
STATE OF MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AN
$3.5B
BARNARD CONSTRUCTION COMPANY, INCORPORAT
$3.2B
MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
$969.1M
BARNARD SPENCER JOINT VENTURE
$834.4M
DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MONTANA
$769.1M
PUBLIC INSTRUCTION MONTANA OFFICE OF
$353.6M
NW CONSTRUCTION, INC
$225.8M
MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUAL
$185.9M
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Bodnar (I)
—
$4.9M
$581K
15%
88%
$26.1M
$6.0M
Alme (R)
—
$3.0M
$603K
11%
80%
$6.4M
$1.4M
Neill (D)
—
$307K
$313
64%
100%
$5K
$2.6M
Austin (L)
—
$262K
$3K
17%
99%
—
—
Bankhead (D)
—
$191K
$23K
48%
88%
$7.5M
$365K
Financial Breakdown
Bodnar (I)
Total Raised
$4,918,341
Cash on Hand
$580,921
Disbursements
$4,337,420
Individual Contributions
$4,750,157
PAC Contributions
$163,050
Small Dollar %
15.3%
Burn Rate
88.2%
Net IE Advantage
+$20.2M
Alme (R)
Total Raised
$3,013,681
Cash on Hand
$602,738
Disbursements
$2,410,943
Individual Contributions
$1,745,070
PAC Contributions
$817,700
Small Dollar %
11.0%
Burn Rate
80.0%
Net IE Advantage
+$5.0M
Neill (D)
Total Raised
$306,625
Cash on Hand
$313
Disbursements
$306,492
Individual Contributions
$165,244
PAC Contributions
$67
Small Dollar %
63.5%
Burn Rate
100.0%
Net IE Advantage
$-2.6M
Austin (L)
Total Raised
$261,825
Cash on Hand
$2,684
Disbursements
$259,691
Individual Contributions
$638
PAC Contributions
$0
Small Dollar %
17.4%
Burn Rate
99.2%
Net IE Advantage
$0
Bankhead (D)
Total Raised
$190,565
Cash on Hand
$22,820
Disbursements
$167,745
Individual Contributions
$180,123
PAC Contributions
$525
Small Dollar %
48.2%
Burn Rate
88.0%
Net IE Advantage
+$7.1M