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Senate · Montana · General Election

Montana Senate

📅 General: November 3, 2026

C: Likely R S: Likely R I: Likely R

Last updated: Jul 01, 2026 12:51 AM

Poll Leader

No polls

0 candidates polled

Total Money in Race

$3.8M

Combined fundraising

Outside Spending

$3.7M

Independent expenditures

🧠 Race Intelligence

Safe R

Signal Alignment REP at 100%

Data Signals

Expert Ratings

REP

Likely R (unanimous) — Cook: Likely R / Sabato: Likely R / Inside: Likely R

🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race

Committee

Direction

Amount

AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP AC

Supporting Alme

$1.2M

MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT

Opposing Neill

$1.2M

MONTANA FREEDOM PAC

Supporting Alme

$518K

AMERICAN MISSION

Supporting Alme

$286K

PROGRESSIVE VET PAC

Opposing Neill

$194K

MORE JOBS, LESS GOVERNMENT

Opposing Bodnar

$192K

MONTANA FREEDOM PAC

Opposing Bodnar

$130K

LEADERSHIP IN ACTION

Opposing Bodnar

$20K

MONTANANS FOR PUBLIC LANDS

Opposing Bodnar

$7K

📊 Market Intelligence — Polymarket

19%

DEM Price

→ -19.1% 7d

99%

REP Price

→ +0.1% 7d

$81K

Total Volume

24h: $30

2.1%

Volatility

Med

30d DEM: -15.6% 30d REP: +0.6%

Spread: 2.0% Bid: 0.00 Ask: 0.00 Liquidity: Normal

🏢 Donor Employer Groups — FEC Schedule A

Individual contributions aggregated by employer. Contributions are from employees, not the companies themselves.

NEILL (DEMOCRATIC PARTY) Top employer groups (1 also lobby Congress)

CERBERUS

$4K (1)

JACKSON BUILDING SOLUTIONS

$3K (1)

PHYSICIAN

$2K (1)

UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA

$1K (1)

PFIZER LOBBY+DONATE

$1K (1)

PORSCHE DRIVER

$500 (1)

UNITED COUNTRY YELLOWSTONE

$500 (1)

LITTLE GREEN LIGHT

$500 (1)

UC DAVIS

$500 (1)

FIRST TENNESSEE BANK

$500 (1)

Source: FEC Schedule A (2026 cycle) via Hammerhead Intelligence

Federal Spending Context (statewide)

Federal awards flowing into this jurisdiction · Source: USAspending.gov

$5.7B

Total Awards

10%

Defense ($107.7M)

1,050,493

Population

Top Industries & Recipients ▾

Commercial and Institutional B · $365.2M Nonscheduled Chartered Freight · $186.0M Electronic and Precision Equip · $109.4M Highway, Street, and Bridge Co · $101.0M Engineering Services · $76.8M Support Activities for Forestr · $61.5M

Recipient Amount

STATE OF MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AN

$3.5B

BARNARD CONSTRUCTION COMPANY, INCORPORAT

$3.2B

MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

$969.1M

BARNARD SPENCER JOINT VENTURE

$834.4M

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE MONTANA

$769.1M

PUBLIC INSTRUCTION MONTANA OFFICE OF

$353.6M

NW CONSTRUCTION, INC

$225.8M

MONTANA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUAL

$185.9M

Candidate Comparison

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

Burn

IE For

IE Agst

Bodnar (I)

—

$2.1M

$964K

13%

54%

$138K

$212K

Alme (R)

—

$1.2M

$922K

22%

$1.6M

$418K

Neill (D)

—

$290K

$73K

64%

75%

$3K

$1.3M

Austin (L)

—

$262K

$29K

—

89%

—

Financial Breakdown

Bodnar (I)

Total Raised

$2,113,231

Cash on Hand

$963,921

Disbursements

$1,149,310

Individual Contributions

$2,081,973

PAC Contributions

$31,050

Small Dollar %

12.7%

Burn Rate

54.4%

Net IE Advantage

$-74K

Alme (R)

Total Raised

$1,184,127

Cash on Hand

$922,253

Disbursements

$261,875

Individual Contributions

$585,060

PAC Contributions

$375,000

Small Dollar %

7.2%

Burn Rate

22.1%

Net IE Advantage

+$1.1M

Neill (D)

Total Raised

$289,638

Cash on Hand

$73,353

Disbursements

$216,465

Individual Contributions

$160,258

PAC Contributions

$67

Small Dollar %

63.5%

Burn Rate

74.7%

Net IE Advantage

$-1.3M

Austin (L)

Total Raised

$262,095

Cash on Hand

$28,523

Disbursements

$233,572

Individual Contributions

$526

PAC Contributions

Small Dollar %

0.0%

Burn Rate

89.1%

Net IE Advantage