Election Intelligence — Hammerhead Intelligence

Alaska Senate

D 20% / R 79% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Sullivan (R)

—

$4.8M

$5.8M

$57K

$31K

Peltola (D)

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $2K

DEM 20¢

GOP 79¢

Florida Senate

D 16% / R 82% ○ ● ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Weil (D)

—

$15.9M

—

75%

—

Moody (R)

—

$5.8M

$5.1M

16%

$1.0M

$83K

Mujica (D)

—

$464K

$154K

19%

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $4K

DEM 16¢

GOP 82¢

Georgia Senate

D 68% / R 30% ○ ● ●

C: Lean D S: Lean D S: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Ossoff (D)

—

$43.2M

$25.6M

64%

$3K

$817K

Collins (R)

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $1K

DEM 68¢

GOP 30¢

Iowa Senate

D 34% / R 64% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hinson (R)

—

$4.9M

$5.2M

13%

$440K

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $142

DEM 34¢

GOP 64¢

Illinois Senate

D 94% / R 4% ○ ● ●

C: Safe D S: Safe D S: Safe D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Duckworth (D)

—

$3.5M

$3.7M

66%

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $240

DEM 94¢

GOP 4¢

Maine Senate

D 70% / R 30% ○ ● ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Platner (D)

—

$7.9M

$3.7M

70%

$450

—

Collins (R)

—

$7.4M

$8.0M

13%

$1.7M

$36K

Mills (D)

—

$2.7M

$1.3M

32%

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $199K

DEM 70¢

GOP 30¢

Michigan Senate

D 80% / R 22% ○ ● ●

C: Toss Up S: Toss Up S: Tilt D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Stevens (D)

—

$6.8M

$3.1M

14%

$97K

—

Mcmorrow (D)

—

$5.6M

$2.0M

48%

$50

—

Rogers (R)

—

$5.4M

$3.5M

34%

$2.2M

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $80K

DEM 80¢

GOP 22¢

North Carolina Senate

Cooper +9.6 D 48% / R 50% 🔴 +33pts ● ● ●

C: Toss Up S: Lean D S: Tilt D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Cooper (D)

47.2%

$21.1M

$14.2M

39%

$33K

$706K

Whatley (R)

37.6%

$6.3M

$2.5M

36%

$3.5M

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $2K

DEM 48¢

GOP 50¢

🔴 Polls imply 81% for Cooper vs market at 48%. Market may be underpricing the polling lead.

Nebraska Senate

D 1% / R 72% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Ricketts (R)

—

$3.6M

$567K

$87K

$431

Osborn (I)

—

$2.1M

$576K

45%

$112

$10K

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $123K

DEM 1¢

GOP 72¢

New Hampshire Senate

D 88% / R 10% ○ ● ●

C: Lean R S: Likely R S: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hassan (D)

—

$1.5M

$1.4M

36%

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $700

DEM 88¢

GOP 10¢

Ohio Senate

Husted +1.0 D 34% / R 64% 🟡 -10pts ● ● ●

C: Lean R S: Lean R S: Lean R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Husted (R)

48.5%

$7.3M

$6.0M

21%

$919K

$21K

Brown (D)

47.5%

—

$11K

$430K

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $9K

DEM 34¢

GOP 64¢

🟡 Market prices Husted at 64% but polls only imply 54%. Smart money may see something polls don't.

Texas Senate Dem Primary

○ ● ○

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Talarico (D)

—

$20.7M

$4.8M

59%

$4.1M

$500K

Crockett (D)

—

$8.6M

$3.5M

76%

$749K

$4.5M

Texas Senate GOP Primary

○ ● ○

C: Likely R S: Likely R S: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Paxton (R)

—

$5.9M

$3.9M

13%

$721

$20.3M

Cornyn (R)

—

$5.5M

$5.0M

$10.7M

$1.4M

California 13th District

D 86% / R 16% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Khanna (D)

—

$9.6M

$15.5M

10%

—

Kim (R)

—

$6.3M

$5.5M

40%

—

$590K

Calvert (R)

—

$4.3M

$3.4M

14%

—

$10K

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $13K

DEM 86¢

GOP 16¢

California 22nd District

D 68% / R 29% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Khanna (D)

—

$9.6M

$15.5M

10%

—

Kim (R)

—

$6.3M

$5.5M

40%

—

$590K

Calvert (R)

—

$4.3M

$3.4M

14%

—

$10K

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $13K

DEM 68¢

GOP 29¢

California 45th District

D 82% / R 14% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Khanna (D)

—

$9.6M

$15.5M

10%

—

Kim (R)

—

$6.3M

$5.5M

40%

—

$590K

Calvert (R)

—

$4.3M

$3.4M

14%

—

$10K

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $5K

DEM 82¢

GOP 14¢

Colorado 8th District

D 72% / R 26% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Laubacher (D)

—

$6.4M

$2.5M

79%

—

Evans (R)

—

$3.1M

$2.6M

26%

$216K

$27K

Rutinel (D)

—

$2.5M

$1.2M

51%

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $2K

DEM 72¢

GOP 26¢

Iowa 3rd District

D 68% / R 30% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Miller-Meeks (R)

—

$4.3M

$3.4M

27%

$89K

$65K

Bohannan (D)

—

$3.0M

$2.3M

20%

—

Nunn (R)

—

$2.6M

$2.0M

18%

—

$2K

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $5K

DEM 68¢

GOP 30¢

Michigan 7th District

D 62% / R 34% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Barrett (R)

—

$3.8M

$2.2M

50%

$102K

$10K

Mcclain (R)

—

$3.4M

$1.6M

37%

$4K

—

Mcdonald Rivet (D)

—

$3.3M

$2.6M

12%

$127

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $2K

DEM 62¢

GOP 34¢

Nebraska 2nd District

D 82% / R 14% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Flood (R)

—

$1.6M

$1.2M

—

Smith (R)

—

$1.1M

$1.3M

—

Powell (D)

—

$1.0M

$625K

17%

$7K

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $4K

DEM 82¢

GOP 14¢

New Jersey 7th District

D 60% / R 38% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Kean (R)

—

$3.2M

$2.5M

12%

—

Bennett (D)

—

$1.9M

$1.2M

14%

—

Gottheimer (D)

—

$1.9M

$10.3M

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $14K

DEM 60¢

GOP 38¢

New York 17th District

D 59% / R 39% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Ocasio-Cortez (D)

—

$23.7M

$13.4M

72%

—

Jeffries (D)

—

$10.3M

$5.9M

71%

—

Lawler (R)

—

$5.2M

$3.5M

15%

—

$1K

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $5K

DEM 59¢

GOP 39¢

New York 19th District

D 85% / R 12% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Ocasio-Cortez (D)

—

$23.7M

$13.4M

72%

—

Jeffries (D)

—

$10.3M

$5.9M

71%

—

Lawler (R)

—

$5.2M

$3.5M

15%

—

$1K

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $1K

DEM 85¢

GOP 12¢

Ohio 9th District

D 52% / R 47% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Jordan (R)

—

$2.7M

$6.6M

60%

$813

—

Carey (R)

—

$2.1M

$1.6M

—

Sykes (D)

—

$1.8M

$1.3M

19%

$244

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $4K

DEM 52¢

GOP 47¢

Pennsylvania 1st District

D 32% / R 64% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Fitzpatrick (R)

—

$4.3M

$7.4M

—

Bresnahan (R)

—

$3.0M

$1.4M

30%

—

$2K

Perry (R)

—

$2.9M

$1.7M

49%

$233K

$49K

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $1K

DEM 32¢

GOP 64¢

Pennsylvania 8th District

D 57% / R 40% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Fitzpatrick (R)

—

$4.3M

$7.4M

—

Bresnahan (R)

—

$3.0M

$1.4M

30%

—

$2K

Perry (R)

—

$2.9M

$1.7M

49%

$233K

$49K

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $5K

DEM 57¢

GOP 40¢

Texas 34th District

D 68% / R 30% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Allred (D)

—

$5.4M

$858K

55%

$173K

$79K

De La Cruz (R)

—

$3.5M

$1.9M

40%

—

Teixeira (R)

—

$3.5M

$1.0M

$996K

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $15K

DEM 68¢

GOP 30¢

Virginia 7th District

D 86% / R 10% ○ ● ●

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Vindman (D)

—

$7.0M

$4.1M

59%

$140K

—

Kiggans (R)

—

$3.6M

$2.3M

26%

—

Beyer (D)

—

$1.2M

$585K

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $2K

DEM 86¢

GOP 10¢

Alabama Senate GOP Primary

Marshall +11.0 ● ○ ○

C: Safe R S: Safe R S: Safe R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Marshall (R)

26.0%

—

Moore (R)

15.0%

—

Hudson (R)

9.0%

—

Georgia Senate GOP Primary

Collins +13.5 ● ○ ○

C: Lean D S: Lean D S: Lean D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Collins (R)

30.3%

—

Carter (R)

16.8%

—

Dooley (R)

10.8%

—

Michigan Senate Dem Primary

Morrow +0.4 ● ○ ○

C: Toss Up S: Toss Up S: Tilt D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Morrow (D)

23.7%

—

Stevens (D)

23.3%

—

Sayed (D)

17.3%

—

California Governor

Hilton +0.7 D 84% / R 16% ● ○ ●

C: Lean D S: Likely D

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Hilton (R)

15.0%

—

Bianco (R)

14.3%

—

Swalwell (D)

12.0%

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $280K

DEM 84¢

GOP 16¢

Michigan Governor

James +3.5 D 57% / R 14% ● ○ ●

C: Toss Up S: Toss Up

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

James (R)

36.0%

—

Benson (D)

32.5%

—

Duggan (D)

20.5%

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $62K

DEM 57¢

GOP 14¢

Texas Governor

Abbott +7.5 D 14% / R 89% ● ○ ●

C: Likely R S: Likely R

Candidate

RCP Avg

Raised

COH

Sm $

IE For

IE Agst

Abbott (R)

49.5%

—

Hinojosa (D)

42.0%

—

📊 Kalshi Market Vol: $43K

DEM 14¢

GOP 89¢

Methodology & Sources

Polling data from RealClearPolling averages. Scraped daily at 4:35 AM EST.

Campaign finance from the FEC API. Includes candidate committee financials, independent expenditures, and itemized contributions. Updated daily at 4:30 AM EST. FEC data typically lags 24-48 hours.

Race ratings from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Split Ticket. Updated manually when rating changes occur.

Small-dollar % = unitemized individual contributions (<$200) as a share of total individual contributions. A proxy for grassroots energy.

IE (Independent Expenditures) = Super PAC and outside group spending for or against a candidate. "IE For" supports the candidate; "IE Agst" opposes them. Sourced from FEC Schedule E filings.

House Seat Model uses a simple heuristic: each point of generic ballot margin (adjusted for R+2 structural advantage) translates to approximately 5.5 House seats. This is a rough midterm heuristic, not a forecast. Confidence interval: ±15 seats.

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Methodology & Sources

🗳️ Election Intelligence

Polls. Money. Markets.

National Indicators

💰 Follow the Money

🔀 Active Divergences — Polls vs Markets

Tracked Races

Methodology & Sources

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