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Senate · North Carolina · General Election

North Carolina Senate

C: Toss Up S: Lean D S: Tilt D
Last updated: Mar 11, 2026 04:40 AM
Poll Leader
Cooper +9.6
2 candidates polled
Total Money in Race
$27.3M
Combined fundraising
Outside Spending
$4.2M
Independent expenditures
💡 Money Signal

Cooper leads both in polls (+9.6) and fundraising ($21.1M vs $6.3M). The money is confirming the polls here. $706K in outside spending opposing Cooper. Super PACs are betting against the frontrunner.

📊 Prediction Market — Kalshi
R+2 Volume: $2K
Source: Kalshi
DEM 48¢
50¢ GOP
🔴 Divergence Alert: Polls imply 81% for Cooper vs market at 48%. Market may be underpricing the polling lead.
🏛️ Super PAC Activity in This Race
Committee
Direction
Amount
Supporting Whatley
$646K
Opposing Cooper
$642K
Opposing Cooper
$30K
FIELD TEAM 6, INC.
Opposing Cooper
$3K
Candidate Comparison
Candidate
RCP Avg
Raised
COH
Sm $
Burn
IE For
IE Agst
Cooper (D)
47.2%
$21.1M
$14.2M
39%
32%
$33K
$706K
Whatley (R)
37.6%
$6.3M
$2.5M
36%
60%
$3.5M
Financial Breakdown
Cooper (D)
Total Raised
$21,070,824
Cash on Hand
$14,227,974
Disbursements
$6,842,849
Individual Contributions
$9,261,170
PAC Contributions
$552,735
Small Dollar %
39.2%
Burn Rate
32.5%
Net IE Advantage
$-673K
Whatley (R)
Total Raised
$6,272,873
Cash on Hand
$2,527,585
Disbursements
$3,745,288
Individual Contributions
$2,876,763
PAC Contributions
$560,500
Small Dollar %
35.9%
Burn Rate
59.7%
Net IE Advantage
+$3.5M
📜 Historical Context — North Carolina
Partisan Lean R+6
→ Stable

NC has a partisan lean of R+6. The state's partisan lean has been stable. Republicans won 4 of the last 4 Senate races here (avg margin R+5).

Presidential Results
2020 R+1.3
2016 R+3.6
2012 R+2.0
2008 D+0.3
2004 R+12.4
Senate Results
2020 R+1.8
2016 R+5.7
2014 R+1.5
2010 R+11.8

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